It looks like Idaho flunked Stage 4 again as coronavirus caseload soars
Editor’s note: This story has been updated with new data posted by the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare on Wednesday.
Idaho’s coronavirus testing roughly doubled the last week of May and had more than tripled by the last week of June.
In the same span, its 14-day average for new confirmed and probable coronavirus cases ballooned from 29.3 per day on May 24 to 312.3 through Wednesday.
That’s more than triple the testing at the peak — but 10 times the cases.
That dynamic is one reason Idaho likely will flunk Stage 4 of the Idaho Rebounds plan for a second time Thursday when Gov. Brad Little addresses the state’s COVID-19 progress (noon, streamed by Idaho Public Television).
Little announced June 25 that he would keep Idaho in Stage 4 for two more weeks because the state failed to meet the criteria to exit Idaho Rebounds. The conditions have only worsened since then.
To advance, Idaho must meet six criteria. The state will pass based on emergency department visits (fewer than 20 per day) and admissions (fewer than two per day) with COVID-19-like symptoms, availability of patient care and health care supplies, as it did last time.
The two trouble spots are the same, too: new cases/positive testing percentage and infected health care workers.
▪ Idaho averaged 299.7 new cases (confirmed and probable) over the 14-day evaluation window during the Stage 4 reboot. That’s a huge jump from the previous 14 days, when the average was 85.9.
The state criteria require a downward trend in cases within the 14-day window (or fewer than 20 new cases per day), but that won’t happen. Idaho reported 234 new cases on the first day and 444 on the 14th day.
The state still could meet this criteria if it shows a downward trend in the positive testing percentage, or the testing percentage is below 5%. The percentage certainly will be over that mark, as it was two weeks ago (5.12%).
In fact, based on the tests and cases reported — which usually produces a higher percentage than the official number — 12% of tests were positive during the latest 14-day window. Saint Alphonsus Health System told Central District Health on Tuesday that it’s been seeing a positive rate of 15% or higher.
The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare computes the trend in testing percentage based on data that isn’t public, but it seems unlikely that it would find a downward trend given the information that is public. The last two weeks of testing data show positivity rates of 10.4% (June 21-27) and a record 11.2% (June 28-July 4).
▪ Health care worker illnesses nearly prevented Idaho from exiting Stage 3, and it was one of the two criteria the state failed in the first attempt at Stage 4.
The situation has worsened considerably.
During the current 14-day window, Health and Welfare added 206 infected health care workers to its database. In the previous three-plus months, it had reported just 427.
The criteria requires fewer than two per day — which clearly didn’t happen — or a downward trend in the daily number of new infections. Again, the data Health and Welfare uses doesn’t match what’s publicly available. But given that the state added 22, nine and 10 health care workers to the total in the first three days and 26 and 37 in the last two days, an upward trend appears likely.
If Idaho fails to meet the criteria, it’s up to Little whether to keep the state in Stage 4 or move back. He has indicated a desire to move the state to a regional approach, which points toward two more weeks of Stage 4.
Ada County already is in Stage 3 at the direction of Central District Health.
Idaho’s average new cases by stage
Stage 1: 24.7 per day
Stage 2: 28.8
Stage 3: 36.5
Stage 4: 85.9
Stage 4, round 2: 299.7
Note: These case numbers reflect the evaluation windows during each stage, which had slightly different dates than the actual stage.
This story was originally published July 8, 2020 at 3:39 PM.
