Idaho must meet these criteria to advance to Stage 4. Here’s where we stand (Feb. 1)
For Idaho to progress through Gov. Brad Little’s four-step plan to reopen the economy, it must meet a series of criteria designed to track the impact of the coronavirus in the state.
Idaho must meet all of the criteria to advance from stage to stage, according to Little’s plan. A stage could be delayed, or reversed, depending on the outcome.
Idaho began Stage 1 on May 1, 2020, Stage 2 on May 16, Stage 3 on May 30 and Stage 4 on June 13, progressing based on data released by Little’s office. However, the state didn’t meet the criteria to exit Stage 4 as planned on June 26, July 10, July 24, Aug. 7, Aug. 21, Sept. 4, Sept. 18, Oct. 2 or Oct. 16.
On Oct. 26, Little moved the entire state back to Stage 3. Then on Nov. 13, Little moved the state back to a modified Stage 2, with a limit of 10 people for social gatherings.
On Feb. 2, Little again moved the state forward to Stage 3, which allows indoor gatherings of 50 people or fewer and outdoor gatherings at 25% capacity. Large venues with crowds of more than 50 need approval for events from local public health districts. The restrictions don’t apply to political events, religious gatherings, educational activities or youth sports events.
Now we’ll track how the state is doing as it tries Stage 3 for two weeks. The last day of Stage 3 is now scheduled for Feb. 8.
Central District Health moved Ada County back to a modified Stage 3 in late June and instituted a countywide mask mandate on July 14 to address a rise in cases. Social gatherings were limited to 10 people on Aug. 11 but returned to the 50-person limit on Oct. 20.
All data below is based on information provided through Feb. 1:
1. New coronavirus cases
Criteria: “Downward trend or low levels of documented COVID-19 cases reported within a 14-day period.” (Probable cases are included.)
OR
Criteria: “Downward trend of positive COVID-19 PCR tests as a percent of total tests within a 14-day period (including flat or increasing volume of tests).”
Metrics: “Downward trend over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 20 patients per day on average reported statewide over the same 14-day period … OR downward trend (in positive percentage) over most recent reported 14-day period, OR less than 5% laboratory PCR positivity on average over same 14-day period.”
Current 14-day window: Jan. 26-Feb. 8 (cases); Jan. 24-Feb. 6 (testing)
Current numbers: 445.4 new cases per day, unknown percentage positive tests (see note below)
Previous 14-day numbers (Jan. 12-25): 695.9 new cases per day, 10% positive tests (Jan. 10-23 testing)
Current status: GOOD. The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare uses data that isn’t public for these calculations — so it’s difficult to say where the state stands. For Jan. 17-23, the most recent week of data available, the positivity rate was 8.3%. The state’s average has decreased each of the last three periods and appears to be following that trend again.
Notes: The testing percentage is based on the day a test was conducted. The information required for that calculation (tests and positive results on a given day) isn’t publicly available.
2. Patient care
Criteria: “Treat all patients without needing to use crisis standards of care.”
Measured by: “Governor’s Order for Crisis Standards of Care in place; reports from hospitals.”
Current status: GOOD. An order would be publicly announced if it were needed, Health and Welfare says.
3. Health care supplies
Criteria: “Available ventilators, intensive care unit beds and personal protective equipment (PPE) to safely care for additional COVID-19 patients in hospitals.”
Metric: “At least 50 available (unused) ventilators, 50 ICU beds, and available 10-day supply of N95 masks, surgical masks, face shields, gowns and gloves.”
Current numbers: Idaho had 526 ventilators and 140 ICU beds available Feb. 1.
Current status: GOOD. Idaho’s coronavirus data dashboard added information about ICU beds and ventilators May 14, 2020. The charts show Idaho in good shape on those metrics. The PPE data still isn’t publicly available, but Idaho has been able to maintain that supply.
4. COVID-19 daily admissions
Criteria: “Hospital admissions of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients is less than 8 per day on average over 14-day period.”
Metric: Hospital reports from most recent 14-day period downloaded from HHS Protect.
Current 14-day window: Jan. 26-Feb. 8
Current average: Unknown
Previous 14-day window (Jan. 12-25): About 33.1 hospital admissions per day, according to the governor’s gating criteria
Current status: LOOKS BAD. The state added this category to its gating criteria for the first time for the July 22-Aug. 4, 2020, evaluation period. The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare uses data that isn’t publicly available for this category.
For the current 14-day window, 177 admissions have been added to the state’s total (25.3 per day). The number of people hospitalized statewide as of Jan. 29 was 211, according to the most recent data available.
COVID-19 ICU patients
Idaho used to have a metric tied to the number of ICU admissions per day of confirmed COVID-19 patients. However, that was removed when Little moved the state forward to Stage 3 on Feb. 2. Little said Idaho has expanded health care capacity and is looking at the criteria holistically. He said some metrics may never meet goal until more of the public can get vaccinated.
Health care workers
Idaho used to have a metric tied to the number of health care workers reported ill during the two-week period. However, that was scrapped for the sixth attempt at Stage 4 because of a lag in the reporting of COVID-19 patients’ occupation that created results that didn’t necessarily match what was happening.
COVID-19 ER visits/admissions
Idaho used to have two metrics tied to the number of emergency room visits and number of hospital admissions from the emergency room with COVID-19-like illness. However, these metrics were scrapped with Idaho’s return to Stage 2 because they weren’t proving to be effective tools in identifying increased spread of the virus, Health and Welfare said.
Statesman reporters Nicole Blanchard, Audrey Dutton and Michael Lycklama contributed.
This story was originally published April 24, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
