Idaho’s move to Stage 3 of rebound plan likely hinges on positive testing percentage
Idaho’s average number of new coronavirus cases during the current 14-day window is now higher than the last reporting window.
Idaho averaged 24.7 new cases per day April 29-May 12, but that number has increased to 28.8 for May 13-26 — mostly because of outbreaks at food and meat plants.
Even though cases have increased, the state can still advance to Stage 3 if the positive testing percentage is under 5%. It has been for the past seven reported weeks, according to data posted on the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare’s website. The most recent data is for May 17-23, when the positive rate was 4.3%.
Gov. Brad Little will hold a press conference to discuss Stage 3 of his Idaho Rebounds plan at 1:30 p.m. Thursday. It will be televised on Idaho Public Television.
The testing percentage is based on the day a test was conducted. The information required for that calculation (tests and positive results on a given day) is not publicly available, though. There’s also some question about the data being used for the calculation, because Health and Welfare says it doesn’t have full data from some testing sites (but does have all of the positive results). Since the case data for the current 14-day window doesn’t meet the downward trend requirement, the testing percentage likely will be the key to Stage 3 being OK’d.
“Laboratories are required by law to report positive results. Negative test results are reported voluntarily,” according to a note on the IDHW website about testing data. “To accurately calculate the percentage of positive test results, both numerator and denominator data are needed; test results from laboratories that do not report negative results (denominator data) are excluded from calculation and from this graph.”
According to the “weekly percent positivity of PCR testing by specimen collection date” chart on the IDHW website, Idaho had completed a combined 45,194 tests through Saturday, May 23. However, the statewide number of COVID-19 laboratory tests at the top of the same web page shows only 43,629 tests had been completed at the end of the day Wednesday — a shortage of more than 1,500 tests four days later.
“Because of the unprecedented event of the COVID-19 pandemic, public health officials at DHW decided to prioritize timeliness over initial completeness of the data to make the information available as close to real-time as possible,” wrote Kathryn Turner, the deputy state epidemiologist, in a recent blog post on the IDHW website.
“Data are preliminary as they are received and can change over time as additional data are received, which may be confusing to people who are used to thinking of data as static and unchanging.”
The daily total tests number is considered “raw” data, while the testing numbers that are updated weekly are considered “verified,” according to IDHW.
A copy of the data Little and his task force will use to determine whether Idaho moves to Stage 3 will be posted on Rebound.Idaho.gov some time on Thursday.
On Wednesday, Twin Falls County added a 23rd death from COVID-19. Based on IDHW demographics, the deceased individual was a non-Hispanic white female over the age of 80. Idaho’s statewide total of coronavirus-related deaths has reached 82.
The state’s seven health districts reported a combined 30 new confirmed cases on Wednesday for a total of 2,493 overall. Additional cases were added in Ada (3 new, 749 total), Bannock (1 new, 17 total), Benewah (1 new, 4 total), Blaine (2 new, 501 total), Bonneville (2 new, 23 total), Canyon (2 new, 268 total), Gooding (3 new, 38 total), Jerome (4 new, 135 total), Minidoka (3 new, 38 total), Twin Falls (8 new, 338 total) and Washington (1 new, 32 total) counties.
There are 246 “probable cases” throughout the state, an increase of five from Tuesday. Health and Welfare reports that 2,185 cases are “presumed recovered.”
DAILY DETAILS
Hospitalizations: Health and Welfare reports that there have been 234 hospitalizations due to the coronavirus, 95 admissions to the ICU and 304 health care workers who have been infected. The hospital and health care numbers are based on cases with completed investigations into contacts, not the full number of positives.
Testing totals: At the end of the day Wednesday, Health and Welfare reported that 43,629 tests had been completed statewide. About 5.7% of those have been positive for COVID-19.
Counties with confirmed COVID-19 cases: Ada 749, Adams 3, Bannock 17, Benewah 4, Bingham 6, Blaine 501, Bonner 4, Bonneville 23, Camas 1, Canyon 268, Caribou 1, Cassia 49, Custer 2, Elmore 30, Fremont 2, Gem 13, Gooding 38, Idaho 3, Jefferson 5, Jerome 135, Kootenai 66, Latah 6, Lemhi 1, Lincoln 30, Madison 13, Minidoka 38, Nez Perce 73, Owyhee 8, Payette 19, Power 3, Teton 10, Twin Falls 338, Valley 2 and Washington 32.
Counties with community spread: Ada, Bannock, Bingham, Blaine, Bonneville, Canyon, Cassia, Elmore, Gem, Jefferson, Jerome, Kootenai, Lemhi, Owyhee, Madison, Minidoka, Payette, Teton and Twin Falls.
Idaho Statesman Assistant Local Editor Chadd Cripe contributed to this report.
This story was originally published May 27, 2020 at 7:15 PM.
