How many of Idaho’s coronavirus cases remain active? Here’s a strong estimate
Idaho has reported more than 1,800 confirmed cases of the coronavirus — and nearly 2,000 total cases, which includes probables.
But how many of those people are still sick?
There isn’t a definitive answer from the public health agencies. Four of Idaho’s seven health districts and the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare have posted information on their websites that provide partial answers.
The Idaho Statesman analyzed that data to get as close as we could to a solid estimate of how many patients have recovered and how many cases remain active.
The answer is easy in some parts of the state, and complicated in others.
▪ The Panhandle Health District was the first in Idaho to report patients who were “no longer monitored,” which means they’ve met the criteria to end self-isolation. The district doesn’t use “recovered,” it once said on its website, because of the uncertainty about whether a patient could get sick again.
Panhandle reports 39 of 65 patients (60%) are no longer monitored. None have died.
▪ South Central Public Health District also uses “no longer monitored” and reports cases by county. The district reports that 681 of its 781 cases are done with monitoring. Of the 100 remaining cases, 60 are in Twin Falls County. Only 18 are in Blaine County, which was Idaho’s first hot spot.
However, the 681 cases no longer being monitored includes the 19 people who have died in the district. So 662 of 781 patients have overcome their symptoms so far — or 84.8%.
▪ Southeastern Idaho Public Health says 12 of its 17 cases are no longer monitored (70.6%). None have died.
▪ Eastern Idaho Public Health has released 51 of its 57 cases from monitoring (89.5%), which it says means the patients are no longer infectious. None have died.
Combined, those four districts say 764 of 920 patients have overcome their COVID-19 symptoms (83%), while 19 have died (2.1%). That leaves 137 active cases.
The other three health districts don’t individually report how many patients are no longer monitored. Idaho North Central District covers the Lewiston area (68 total cases), Southwest District Health covers Canyon County and surrounding areas (292 total cases) and Boise-based Central District Health covers Ada County and surrounding areas (701 total cases).
But those districts are included in the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare’s estimation of “presumed recovered” cases. That includes anyone who is still alive 30 days after their symptoms began.
Through Wednesday, Health and Welfare reported that 1,121 of the state’s 1,984 confirmed and probable cases were presumed recovered (56.5%). That’s a lower percentage than any of the four districts that report based on monitoring, which doesn’t necessarily extend 30 days from symptom onset.
That would leave an estimated 803 coronavirus cases in which the people are still considered ill, with 60 deaths.
The state doesn’t provide county-by-county, or even district-by-district, numbers for recovered patients. However, based on an epidemiological curve on the Health and Welfare website, here’s a breakdown of cases that began March 29 or earlier in the three districts that don’t report recovered information.
▪ Central District Health reported 418 of its 701 cases with symptoms at or before that date. We don’t know where the district’s 18 deaths fell on the chart, so we can’t arrive at a precise number of active cases. About 275 district patients are still active cases.
▪ Southwest District Health reported 120 of its 292 cases with symptoms at or before March 29. It has seven deaths (again, we don’t know where they fall on the chart), leaving roughly 170 residents who are still considered ill.
▪ Idaho North Central District reported 38 of its 68 cases with symptoms at or before that date. The district has 16 deaths. If we split the death total inside and outside the 30-day range, that leaves an estimated 22 active cases.
Combining the numbers reported by the Panhandle, South Central, Southeastern and Eastern Idaho districts with the estimates based on Health and Welfare’s figures, Idaho has about 600 active cases. Based on Idaho’s population (1,787,065), that’s one out of every 2,978 residents.
It’s important to note, however, that experts believe there are at least several times more people who have contracted the virus than those who have been officially identified because of limited testing capacity and, in some cases, symptoms so mild that the person didn’t seek a test or medical care.
Editor’s note: There is a slight difference (three cases) between the state’s total case count and the district-by-district numbers in this story because of discrepancies between data reported by the districts and state.
This story was originally published April 30, 2020 at 9:48 AM.
