Playoff picks: How 6 Boise-area football teams can make the state finals — and who will
Months of Idaho high school football games whittled the field and left the final four teams in each classification for this week’s semifinals.
Gone are the Cinderellas and feel-good stories. Left are the powerhouses and title contenders.
Six teams remain in the hunt in the greater Boise area. So who’s moving onto the state championship round? We broke down all the matchups and predicted the winners below.
RIGBY (9-1) AT ROCKY MOUNTAIN (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Watch: NFHSNetwork.com. Listen: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 7-1 — Rigby’s road playoff record since 2019. The lone loss came last year at Eagle
Rocky Mountain key to victory: Take away at least one weapon. Rocky Mountain and its state-leading defense (9.7 ppg) face their toughest challenge yet. Two Rigby running backs average 8 or more yards per carry, and quarterback Jacob Flowers is completing 75% of his passes. Rocky Mountain doesn’t have to shut down everyone. But it must limit Rigby’s options to avenge home losses to Rigby in this round in 2022 and 2019.
Pick: Rocky Mountain 30, Rigby 24
EAGLE (8-2) AT COEUR D’ALENE (8-2)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. MT Friday
Watch: NFHSNetwork.com. Listen: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 7-6 — Score of Coeur d’Alene’s victory over Eagle in last year’s semifinal despite getting out gained 326-148 in yards
Eagle key to victory: Find Kai Wheeler on every play. The Vikings’ two-way star manhandles defensive backs as a wide receiver, racking up 57 catches for 948 yards and 14 TDs. He also serves as a weapon on defense, where he’s made six interceptions. Eagle shouldn’t expect to contain him entirely. But it must limit his damage to advance to the finals for the first time since 2011.
Pick: Coeur d’Alene 27, Eagle 20
WEISER (8-2) AT HOMEDALE (9-1)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Watch: NHFSNetwork.com. Listen: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 46-2 — Homedale’s home record the past eight years. Weiser won the SRV title, but Homedale is hosting because it has a higher MaxPreps ranking
Weiser key to victory: Set the tone. The Wolverines are dangerous on play action, but that all relies on a physical running game averaging 268 yards a night. Get Kash Cobb (1,297 yards, 19 TDs) and a host of other weapons on track, and the entire playbook opens up.
Homedale key to victory: Protect the ball. The Trojans committed six turnovers in a 30-6 loss at Weiser earlier this season. That game stands as an outlier as Homedale has turned the ball over just twice in nine other games. But the Trojans cannot afford a repeat.
Pick: Homedale 28, Weiser 22
TRI-VALLEY (10-1) VS. DIETRICH (9-1)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Friday at ICCU Dome, Pocatello
Watch: NFHSNetwork.com. Listen: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 2,816 — Total offensive yards this season for Tri-Valley quarterback Jace Waggoner
Tri-Valley key to victory: Kick away from Connor Perkins. The Blue Devils’ quarterback remains a nightmare both throwing and running the ball. But he also returned a pair of punts for touchdowns last week in a 72-12 win over Cascade. This matchup features two of the top playmakers at the 8-man level in Waggoner and Perkins. No need to give Perkins a few extra cracks at the ball.
Pick: Tri-Valley 30, Dietrich 22
GARDEN VALLEY (7-2) VS. CAREY (9-1)
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Friday at ICCU Dome, Pocatello
Watch: NFHSNetwork.com. Listen: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: No. 1 — Rank for Carey’s scoring offense (56.1 ppg) and defense (11.4 ppg) in the 1A classification
Garden Valley key to victory: Control the clock. Few can afford to get into a shootout with the top-seeded Panthers, who average 402 yards of offense per game. So Garden Valley will need to feed Trevor Corn (869 rushing yards, 12 TDs) to shorten the game and limit Carey’s opportunities to pull a second straight upset.
Pick: Carey 45, Garden Valley 20
This story was originally published November 13, 2024 at 3:37 PM.
