You heard it here first. These six teams will win an Idaho state football title this week
The weekend we’ve all waited for is finally here.
Idaho crowns its state football champions in all six classifications Thursday, Friday and Saturday. And Treasure Valley teams will battle for the 5A, 4A and 3A championships — with Meridian (5A) and Bishop Kelly (4A) seeking to wrap up perfect seasons.
So who’s bringing home the banner and who will have to settle for a runner-up trophy? We broke down the championship matchups and looked into the crystal ball in each classification for a winner.
5A: MERIDIAN (11-0) VS. RIGBY (10-2)
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise State
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Key stat: 15 — Combined touchdowns in Rigby’s 55-49, triple overtime win vs. Meridian in last year’s semifinals
Meridian key to victory: Get stops. That sounds simple enough for the state’s top defense (6.5 points allowed per game). But the Warriors held that title in last year’s semifinals and failed to force a single Rigby turnover or punt in three overtimes.
After a slow start, Rigby has grown into another offensive powerhouse behind junior quarterback Luke Flowers. He’s thrown for 1,037 yards and racked up 16 total touchdowns in the past four weeks, all elimination games for the Trojans. That includes 326 yards last week against Rocky Mountain, a defense that hadn’t allowed a 200-yard passer all season.
The Trojans don’t allow much time for pass rush. So Meridian’s state title dreams rest on its secondary denying Rigby’s quick throws.
Rigby key to victory: Stop the run. The Warriors are no one-trick pony. But their offense remains built around the running game. Meridian averages 214 rushing yards per game (third in 5A), and they racked up 316 yards on the ground while eating up 35 minutes of the game clock last week against Mountain View.
In the days of spread offenses and RPOs, Meridian’s Wing-T presents a challenge for defenses. They rarely see it, and the Warriors’ myriad ball fakes are next to impossible to discern — even from the press box.
The defending state champs will have to stay disciplined for all four quarters to become the first team to stop the Warriors’ physical run game.
Prediction: Meridian 27, Rigby 20
4A: BISHOP KELLY (12-0) VS. SKYLINE (9-3)
Where: Holt Arena, Pocatello
When: 8:30 p.m. Friday
Key stat: 7 of the past 9 — 4A state championships won by Bishop Kelly or Skyline
Bishop Kelly key to victory: Contain Kenyon Sadiq. The 6-3, 220-pound Oregon commit remained relatively quiet during the regular season. But he erupted last week, turning six catches into 246 yards and five TDs in a 42-28 win vs. Sandpoint.
The reigning All-Idaho Player of the Year looked like a man among boys and embarrassed an outmatched Sandpoint defense. Bishop Kelly’s 4A-leading defense (9.0 points per game) will need to make sure Sadiq doesn’t beat it all by himself and force the Grizzlies to look elsewhere.
Skyline key to victory: Hold its own in the trenches. The two-time defending state champs haven’t faced an offensive and defensive line like Bishop Kelly’s. The Knights have bullied 5A and 4A programs all year on their way to an undefeated record, outscoring opponents by an average of 34.6 points per game. That trails only Bishop Kelly’s undefeated 2005 team as the best in its decorated program’s history.
The Grizzlies have plenty of weapons on the edge to even the scales. But those won’t matter if Skyline can’t at least battle to a stalemate up front.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 35, Skyline 21
3A: HOMEDALE (10-1) VS. SUGAR-SALEM (10-0)
Where: Middleton High
When: 1 p.m. Saturday
Key stat: 4 — Straight years Homedale’s season has ended with a loss to Sugar-Salem, including three in the state finals
Homedale key to victory: Don’t get too emotional. Sugar-Salem has served as the Trojans’ white whale the past four seasons. The Diggers stopped Homedale on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line for a 30-22 victory at Middleton in the 2018 championship. They then came up with an interception on fourth down for a 34-28 overtime victory in the 2020 championship — also at Middleton.
Homedale returns to the scene of the crime Saturday. But it can’t relitigate any of those four losses this week. It can only win this game and this title, which would be its first since 1997.
Sugar-Salem key to victory: Respond when tested. The Diggers have rolled to an undefeated record, scoring a 3A-leading 50.4 points per game and cruising past state champions from Wyoming (Star Valley) and Utah (Layton Christian).
No one has forced Sugar-Salem into a dogfight. Its closest game this season was a 19-point win over Layton Christian. But as Homedale has shown the past four years, it knows how to take the Diggers to the wire.
Prediction: Sugar-Salem 34, Homedale 29
2A: BEAR LAKE (9-1) VS. FIRTH (8-2)
Where: Holt Arena, Pocatello
When: 8 p.m. Thursday
Key stat: First — Appearance for Bear Lake in a state title game
The 2A ranks will finally have a new champion after Bear Lake knocked off three-time defending champ West Side 28-27 in overtime last week. The Bears also topped West Side 28-27 in overtime earlier this year, making it the only team to beat the Pirates since 2019.
Now Bear Lake must top another perennial power for the second time this season. Firth fell to West Side in the past three title games. And with the door opened, the Cougars look to finally break through for their first title since 2006.
Prediction: Bear Lake 27, Firth 22
1ADI: GRACE (9-1) VS. OAKLEY (9-1)
Where: Holt Arena, Pocatello
When: 5:30 p.m. Thursday
Key stat: 0 — Number of three-peat state championships at the 8-man level. Oakley could become the first.
The top 8-man level provides the David vs. Goliath story of the weekend.
Oakley enters as the two-time defending state champ, and it started and finished the season as the classification’s No. 1-ranked team. Meanwhile, Grace has never won a title and wasn’t on many radars before the season.
Prediction: Oakley 34, Grace 22
1ADII: KENDRICK (11-0) VS. DIETRICH (11-0)
Where: Holt Arena, Pocatello
When: 6 p.m. Friday
Key stat: 426 — Unanswered points Kendrick scored against opponents until last week
The state’s smallest division pits Idaho’s top offense (Dietrich, 58.9 points per game) against its top defense (Kendrick, 5.6 points allowed per game). To be clear, the two powers don’t just lead their classification. They lead all teams in Idaho.
An 8-man team owning the state’s top defense can’t be emphasized enough. Kendrick even posted six straight shutouts before finally giving up a touchdown last week in a 38-8 victory over Castleford.
Don’t expect another shutout. But expect a repeat title for the Tigers.
Prediction: Kendrick 27, Dietrich 13
This story was originally published November 16, 2022 at 3:11 PM.
