How every 5A, 4A SIC football team can make the state semifinals — and which ones will
The Idaho high school football state playoffs may have started last week. But with the weather finally turning and heavyweights like Meridian and Eagle back on the schedule, the postseason kicks into full gear this weekend.
Thirteen teams from around Southwest Idaho are still alive and looking to take the next step to a state championship. So who’s moving on and who’s going home? We broke down all the 5A and 4A SIC matchups below, and picked the winner of all the 3A to 1A games at IdahoStatesman.com.
MIDDLETON (7-3) AT MERIDIAN (9-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 56-7 — Score from Meridian’s win at Middleton earlier this fall
Middleton key to victory: Keep believing. Few gave the Vikings a chance in Lewiston last weekend. But Middleton pulled off the 14-7 upset, holding the state’s top offense to a single touchdown while forcing four turnovers. Even fewer will give Middleton any chance against No. 1 Meridian. But that just means the Vikings have nothing to lose.
Meridian key to victory: Embrace the hype. For all the firsts the Warriors have set the past two years, they enter the playoffs with another new one — the favorite to win it all. They own the state’s top defense (6.1 points per game). They lead the state in turnovers forced (31). And they have an embarrassment of riches in the backfield. Meridian will face adversity at some point. But if they maintain the swagger they have earned, the Warriors will play deep into November.
Prediction: Meridian 42, Middleton 13
RIGBY (8-2) AT EAGLE (6-3)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 35.5 — Combined sacks from Eagle’s Carter Davis and Seth Brock
Eagle key to victory: Establish the run. The Mustangs’ option attack averages 217 yards per game on the ground. And when it gets rolling, everything else follows. Defenses are forced to read and react, and that opens up windows for quarterback Jake Longson to find explosive wide receiver Ian Duarte. But that will be easier said than done against a stout Rigby defense with three shutouts under its belt.
Prediction: Rigby 21, Eagle 14
ROCKY MOUNTAIN (9-1) AT POST FALLS (7-2)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. Mountain Time Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 1-11 — Post Falls’ all-time playoff record. Rocky Mountain is 18-9.
Rocky Mountain key to victory: Stop the run. The Trojans rank second in 5A with 228 rushing yards per game, relying on a two-headed monster of Jake Bustamante (1,179 yards, 18 TDs) and Tevin Burns (703 yards, 11 TDs). Luckily, Rocky Mountain fields the state’s top run-stop defense, giving up just 55 yards per game. Only two teams have run for 100 or more yards vs. Rocky Mountain this season. With rain, gusting winds and sloppy conditions in the forecast, this game will be won on the ground.
Prediction: Rocky Mountain 27, Post Falls 14
MOUNTAIN VIEW (6-4) AT HIGHLAND (6-3)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Friday at Holt Arena
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 1-5 — Mountain View’s all-time record vs. Highland
Mountain View key to victory: Contain Drew Hymas. Highland’s dual-threat QB has racked up 1,723 total yards and 17 TDs this fall, and he has nearly twice as many rushing yards as any other Ram. Simply put, Highland goes as he goes. The Mavericks will need to keep him in the pocket to turn in another defensive performance like last week’s, when they shut out a depleted Nampa squad on its home field. If the Mavericks make Hymas one-dimensional, they will advance to the semifinals for the seventh time in nine years.
Prediction: Highland 28, Mountain View 17
POCATELLO (5-4) AT BISHOP KELLY (10-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 8 — Touchdowns scored by Bishop Kelly’s defense and special teams this year, including three last week
Bishop Kelly key to victory: Protect the ball. The Knights committed four turnovers in a 28-17 loss at Pocatello in the same round last year. All four came in the second half, allowing the Thunder to rally for the win. Pocatello will need more of those free giveaways to penetrate Bishop Kelly’s state-leading defense (8.6 ppg). Force the Thunder to earn their points, and they won’t get many.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 35, Pocatello 14
This story was originally published November 2, 2022 at 3:57 PM.
