Keys to victory for every 5A, 4A SIC football team as Idaho state playoffs begin
Months of two-a-day practices, early mornings and sacrifices have all led to this — the Idaho high school football state playoffs.
Ten Treasure Valley teams kick off the 5A and 4A state playoffs Friday night. We broke down each matchup and provided the one key that will determine if those teams march on or start preparing for basketball and wrestling season.
MOUNTAIN VIEW (5-4) AT NAMPA (7-2)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 1995 — The last time Nampa won a 5A playoff game
Mountain View key to victory: Stop the run. The Bulldogs lead all 5A teams with 310 rushing yards per game, including 297 against the Mavericks two weeks ago in a 23-14 victory. Control the line of scrimmage, and Nampa becomes one-dimensional and easier to contain.
Nampa key to victory: Feed Daniel Carrillo. The 5-7 senior leads the 5A classification with 1,658 yards and 23 TDs. He’s found the end zone at least once every game this season. The Bulldogs have won seven in a row when he gets 20 or more carries.
Dante Avjian (673 yards, four TDs) provides a balance when teams focus too heavily on Carrillo. But as Carrillo goes, so go the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Mountain View 28, Nampa 22
KUNA (5-4) AT ROCKY MOUNTAIN (8-1)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 4-0 — Rocky Mountain’s all-time record vs. Kuna
Kuna key to victory: Turn Cole Luekenga loose. The Kavemen are their most dangerous with the 6-3 senior dropping back and slinging it all over the yard. He leads all 5A starting quarterbacks in completion percentage (72%) and he’s second in passing yards (2,045). The first 5A playoff win in program history requires a monster night from him.
Rocky Mountain key to victory: Make Kuna one-dimensional. The Kavemen average only 3.5 yards per carry. But they are 3-1 when running for more than 100 yards. Stuff the run, and Rocky Mountain can do what it does best — pressure the quarterback and force turnovers.
Prediction: Rocky Mountain 34, Kuna 15
OWYHEE (5-4) AT RIGBY (7-2)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com, IdahoSports.com (audio only)
Key stat: 21 — Consecutive home wins for Rigby
Owyhee key to victory: Force turnovers. The Storm have created 21 takeaways this fall, the second most in 5A. The second-year program will need to force them in bunches and give their offense extra opportunities to pull off a major upset against Rigby. The Trojans have played for the 5A state title three years in a row.
Prediction: Rigby 35, Owyhee 13
MIDDLETON (6-3) AT LEWISTON (7-2)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. Mountain Time Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 45.1 — Points per game for Lewiston, the most in 5A.
Middleton key to victory: Bend, but don’t break. Dekker Hagler and the Vikings’ air raid offense can hang with anyone in a shootout. But Middleton will have to limit the big plays and force the explosive Bengals to march down the field. A turnover or two would also go a long way to an upset.
Prediction: Lewiston 41, Middleton 36
CANYON RIDGE (5-3) AT BISHOP KELLY (9-0)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Key stat: 9.6 — Points per game allowed by Bishop Kelly, the fewest in 4A
Bishop Kelly key to victory: Contain Conner Willis. Canyon Ridge’s 6-3 junior quarterback has thrown for 2,314 yards and 29 TDs at the head of the Riverhawks’ pass-happy offense. The Knights haven’t given up 300 yards passing all season, and they’ve allowed just two teams to surpass 200 yards. Keep Willis and 4A’s leading receiver, Tanner Eldredge, in check, and the Knights will roll.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 42, Canyon Ridge 13
VALLIVUE (5-4) AT MINICO (8-1)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 358 — Rushing yards per game for Vallivue, the most in 4A. Minico is second at 317.
Vallivue key to victory: Next man up. The Falcons lost Tyson Fox, 4A’s leading rusher, to a broken leg last week. But they have plenty of other options in a loaded backfield. Koa Maio has run for 874 yards and 11 TDs, and Hayden Farner stepped into Fox’s shoes last week and erupted for 195 yards and three TDs.
No one can replace Fox. But if those two can come close to his production, Vallivue has a shot to advance.
Prediction: Minico 33, Vallivue 22
SKYVIEW (2-7) AT SANDPOINT (4-3)
Kickoff: 8 p.m. Mountain Time Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 476 — Miles Skyview must travel for the game
Skyview key to victory: Play loose. The Hawks have nothing to lose. A tough nonconference schedule makes Skyview’s 2-7 look worse than it is. But the Hawks enter as massive underdogs to the reigning state runner-up. So play like it, dust off the bag of tricks and see where the chips fall.
Prediction: Sandpoint 36, Skyview 13
SHELLEY (4-5) AT EMMETT (7-2)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com
Key stat: 32:4 — Touchdown-to-interception ratio for Emmett’s Dakota Perry, the best in 4A.
Emmett key to victory: Stay disciplined. The Russets run for 297 yards per game, spreading the ball around and confuse defenses with a variety of ball fakes. Caden Johnson (960 rushing yards), Ryker Clinger (925) and Kaden Kidman (680) can all punish linebackers and defensive backs for peeking in the backfield. The Huskies must stay in their lanes and limit chunk yardage plays.
Prediction: Emmett 35, Shelley 29
This story was originally published October 27, 2022 at 12:13 PM.
