5 critical games in the high school football playoff race. Here’s who will win them
Only four weeks remain in the high school football regular season, meaning it’s crunch time in the race for playoff position.
This week’s schedule includes a pair of Cinderellas facing off in the 5A SIC River Division, a matchup of 4A’s top offense and defense, and the two preseason favorites in the 2A WIC.
We broke down the top five matchups, and picked the winners, below.
NAMPA AT OWYHEE
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
The shine wore off Cinderella stories for both Nampa and Owyhee. But the two underdogs still have loads to play for Friday.
A victory clinches Nampa (3-2, 3-1 5A SIC River) at least a third-place finish in the River Division. That guarantees the Bulldogs a home game during the Week 9 crossover games against the Foothills Division. Winners of those games automatically advance to the playoffs.
Nampa’s hot start ended last week in a 45-14 loss at Eagle. The Bulldogs surrendered 477 rushing yards to the perennial 5A power and struggled to get anything going offensively. Despite the performance, Nampa running back Daniel Carrillo is still the second-leading rusher in 5A (158.6 yards per game), and the Bulldogs are third in 5A with 34.4 points per game.
Meanwhile, Owyhee has lost three in a row after a 3-0 start. That includes the Storm (3-3, 1-3) squandering a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to Borah in a 21-17 loss a week ago.
Owyhee’s defense has carried the second-year program thus far, forcing 14 turnovers. Gage Haws (9.2 tackles per game) and Beau Jacques (12.5 sacks) both rank among the state leaders. They’ll have to shut down the Nampa running game to stay in the hunt for a Week 9 home game.
Prediction: Nampa 35, Owyhee 28
MOUNTAIN VIEW AT KUNA
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: IdahoSports.com, NFHSNetwork.com
No. 4-ranked Mountain View is 4-0 all-time vs. Kuna. But the Mavericks (3-2, 3-0 5A SIC River) can’t afford to overlook the Kavemen (3-2, 1-2), who gave River Division favorite Eagle all it could handle four weeks ago in a 21-7 loss.
Cole Luekenga, 5A’s leading passer, always gives Kuna a chance. And the Kavemen are coming off a bye week, giving them ample time to find weaknesses in Mountain View’s armor.
But the Mavericks haven’t shown many flaws lately, rolling off three straight wins. Justin McGee snatched the top running back opportunity these past three weeks, entering Friday with 435 yards and 10 touchdowns to his name. And only a pair of late, meaningless touchdowns the past two weeks prevented Mountain View from posting back-to-back shutouts.
Prediction: Mountain View 35, Kuna 14
BURLEY AT BISHOP KELLY
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
No. 2-ranked Bishop Kelly and its 4A-leading defense (5.2 ppg) draw another explosive offense this week. Burley leads all Idaho 11-man teams with 55.2 points per game.
The Knights rose to the challenge last week, shutting down Vallivue for a 35-6 win on the road. But while the Falcons beat teams on the ground, Burley (4-1) does it through the air.
Burley quarterback Caleb Loveland has thrown for 1,835 yards and 25 touchdowns in five weeks. And junior wide receiver Gatlin Bair, a four-star recruit, posterizes defenders regularly with his size and hops.
Burley suffered its first loss last week when Minico forced three turnovers, controlled the clock and made the Bobcats one-dimensional — a formula Bishop Kelly perfected years ago.
Prediction: Bishop Kelly 35, Burley 27
VALLIVUE AT RIDGEVUE
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Broadcast: NFHSNetwork.com
Vallivue has owned its crosstown rival, beating it every year since Ridgevue opened in 2016. The Falcons need to extend that streak to keep their chances of a league title alive.
Vallivue (2-3, 2-1 4A SIC) saw its explosive offense grounded last week in a 35-6 loss to Bishop Kelly. Tyson Fox still produced, running for 142 yards to maintain his status as 4A’s leading rusher. But the Falcons mustered little else, giving Ridgevue a formula to follow.
The Warhawks (1-3, 0-1) enter fresh off their first win. Quarterback Grayson Heil accounted for all five touchdowns in a 35-13 win over Caldwell. He threw for two TDs, ran for two more and also caught a touchdown. He’ll need another monster game to finally make this a true rivalry.
Prediction: Vallivue 43, Ridgevue 14
MELBA VS. COLE VALLEY CHRISTIAN
Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday
Location: Simplot Stadium, Caldwell
Preseason predictions in the 2A Western Idaho Conference remain a fool’s errand. But Cole Valley Christian (3-2, 1-0) booked the College of Idaho’s Simplot Stadium and made this its homecoming game, signaling its importance.
Melba (4-1, 0-0) edged the Chargers atop the 2A WIC’s preseason coaches’ poll. And the Mustangs have backed up the favorite title so far, building the top offense in 2A (48.6 ppg) behind junior quarterback Cache Beus and a powerful running game.
The Chargers remain undefeated against 2A opponents, including a 35-21 victory at Nampa Christian last week. Cole Valley ran for 321 yards in the win, showcasing its own explosive rushing attack. But the Chargers have lost four in a row to Melba.
Prediction: Melba 44, Cole Valley Christian 21
