What’s Boise State football’s postseason outlook? Could Broncos make the CFP?
If you scoured national media less than a week ago for Boise State football’s bowl game predictions, the picks painted a dire picture. Many outlets were predicting the Broncos to play in the Frisco Bowl or Arizona Bowl; several even forecasted the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, a game the Broncos have shown little desire to play in for years.
All of those games take place within the week surrounding Christmas, affecting the Broncos’ holiday break.
Yet, as of Sunday morning, the Broncos’ future is looking a whole lot rosier.
The Mountain West announced Sunday that Boise State will host the Mountain West Championship game against UNLV at 6 p.m. Friday, with the game airing on Fox. It’s the third straight season the two teams have met in the title game, with Boise State having won the first two.
An improbable set of circumstances fell into place for the Broncos to host the conference title game, which was ultimately decided by composite computer rankings after a four-way tie at the top of the conference.
Boise State’s prospects now?
At the very least, a chance to play in the LA Bowl on Dec. 13. At most … the College Football Playoff?
Here’s the breakdown.
How can Boise State make the LA Bowl?
While it’s wholly possible that Boise State could still find itself in a less-than-desirable bowl game around the holiday period if it loses the Mountain West title game, the Broncos’ inclusion guarantees one thing: the opportunity to play in the LA Bowl on Dec. 13.
The Mountain West champion goes to that game unless it is part of the CFP, which happened last year when Boise State made the playoff field and played in the Fiesta Bowl, where it lost to Penn State. Because that happened, conference runner-up UNLV went to the LA Bowl.
The Broncos are familiar with the LA Bowl, having won the Mountain West championship in 2023 and gone on to Los Angeles to face UCLA before losing 35-22.
The opponent for the Mountain West champ in the LA Bowl will be a former Pac-12 school, meaning it could be Washington State, which finished 6-6 and will be part of the revitalized Pac-12 next year, or any of the teams that moved on to the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, such as Arizona, Arizona State or Cal.
Are the playoffs still on the table for Boise State?
But there is a small — and we mean small — chance the Broncos find themselves back in the CFP for a second straight year.
The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff field. The SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten are guaranteed a place, with their conference championship games featuring teams ranked within the CFP committee’s top 12.
The American Athletic Conference is also well-positioned to secure an autobid: No. 24 Tulane (9-2) plays North Texas (11-1) in the AAC title game, so a Tulane victory should be enough to secure a spot. And if North Texas wins, it would be difficult for the CFP committee to ignore a 12-1 AAC champion.
The Sun Belt’s James Madison (11-1) is also in its conference title game against Troy. A victory for James Madison would give it a strong case at 12-1, but with the Dukes having played a perceived weaker schedule than the rest of the field, the CFP committee has yet to give them much attention.
That means chaos in the ACC could open a door for the Broncos.
No. 18 Virginia (10-2) and Duke (7-5) will play for the ACC championship after a five-way tie for second resolved with higher-ranked teams being left out. A victory for Virginia likely would guarantee the Cavaliers a spot in the CFP, but a win for Duke would throw a massive wrench into the mix.
If Duke emerges victorious, the Blue Devils would move to 8-5 on the season. Assuming James Madison wins the Sun Belt title, it would be 11-1, and then the Mountain West champion would either be 11-2 UNLV or 9-4 Boise State.
Would the CFP committee rank an 8-5 Duke team ahead of an 11-1 James Madison or a 9-4 Boise State, and award the Blue Devils an autobid?
Or, if James Madison loses to 8-4 Troy, the Sun Belt champion likely wouldn’t be a factor and the last automatic spot could come down to 8-5 Duke vs. the Boise State-UNLV winner.
As one indicator of where the teams stand, ESPN’s SP+ has UNLV at No. 41, Duke at No. 53 and Boise State at No. 55. James Madison is No. 24.
It would undoubtedly be an all-time comeback for the Broncos if they manage to make the field, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
