Boise State football can still make conference championship game. Here’s how
Logic would dictate that Boise State’s blowout win over Colorado State on Saturday was the team’s last game at Albertsons Stadium this season.
But this is college sports.
And “college sports” and “logic” don’t always collide in the same sentence.
It might sound far-fetched, but if the Broncos beat Utah State on Friday and New Mexico upsets San Diego State that same day, the defending champs can not only make the Mountain West championship game, but also host it.
Is it probable? No.
Is it possible? Yes.
But first things first.
The much cleaner route to a fourth straight title game appearance for Boise State is this: Beat Utah State, have the first-place Aztecs (6-1) beat the Lobos, and then book a return trip to San Diego State, where the Broncos lost 17-7 in the rain a few weeks ago.
If San Diego State loses, then all hell breaks loose. That could create a three- or even four-way tie atop the standings.
That would mean, of course, that perhaps everyone’s least favorite evaluation tools — computer rankings — determine who plays in the conference title matchup on Friday, Dec. 5. And the Mountain West won’t just rely on one index — it will use a “composite of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics” from these four: Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI and SportSource.
Excited?
Here’s how things can play out.
Boise State’s championship game scenarios
First and foremost, of course, is that the Broncos (7-4, 5-2) have to go on the road — where they are 2-3 and haven’t always been on top of their game — and defeat Utah State (6-5, 4-3), which is a perfect 5-0 at home.
(The Aggies’ chances of making the championship game are incredibly slim, but not impossible, because a massive pileup of teams tied at 5-3 is still in the realm. But let’s leave that off the table for the moment.)
As mentioned, wins by Boise State and San Diego State set up a rematch for those two teams. UNLV, heavily favored to beat Nevada, could tie BSU for second place with a win in that scenario, but the Broncos beat the Rebels, and a head-to-head tiebreaker would be used because they’d be the only 6-2 teams behind 7-1 SDSU.
If Boise State and New Mexico win, there’s at least a three-way tie for first, and the computers are in play. If UNLV wins as well, make that a four-way tie, and start hoping the computer metrics are really good, because this is how the standings would look:
- San Diego State 6-2
- Boise State 6-2
- New Mexico 6-2
- UNLV 6-2
For now, the metrics don’t look all that good for the Broncos in that situation. But it’s conceivable, of course, that after this week’s results, the No. 1 team in the composite rankings is Boise State, and the No. 2 team is New Mexico or UNLV, which would mean hosting that team on the blue turf as coach Spencer Danielson’s team seeks a third straight conference championship.
Given the publicly available rankings, that’s an uphill climb. After last weekend’s games, here’s where the top four teams stand in the various rankings. One that will be used, SportSource, is not publicly available, so these three don’t paint a complete picture — and fans of all teams could argue endlessly about how representative they are.
Connelly SP+
- San Diego State (9-2 overall): 43rd
- UNLV (9-2): 54th
- Boise State (7-4): 55th
- New Mexico (8-3): 70th
ESPN SOR
- UNLV: 42nd
- San Diego State: 43rd
- New Mexico: 47th
- Boise State: 56th
KPI
- San Diego State: 41st
- UNLV: 43rd
- Boise State: 45th
- New Mexico: 54th
Overall average from those three
- San Diego State: 42.3
- UNLV: 46.3
- Boise State: 52
- New Mexico: 57
If all four teams finish 6-2, it would seem San Diego State and UNLV are well-positioned to snag title game spots. But obviously losing to the Lobos would drop the Aztecs’ numbers. And because it plays Nevada (3-8, 2-5), UNLV can’t expect any bump at all. Boise State would be beating a team with a winning record on the road, and the Lobos obviously could expect a nice rise by defeating the Aztecs.
The bottom line is that it’s nearly impossible to predict how teams would be ranked via computers, even if it is only a three-way tie — especially with no one knowing what the SportSource numbers look like.
Once the two championship game participants are determined via the computer rankings, then the head-to-head tiebreaker procedure between two teams is used to determine who gets to host. For instance, if Boise State were No. 1 in the composite computer rankings and San Diego State No. 2, the Aztecs still would host the game because they beat the Broncos.
If UNLV were No. 1 in the composite rankings and Boise State No. 2, then the Broncos would get to host via their victory in the regular season over the Rebels. The same scenario exists if it’s New Mexico No. 1 and BSU No. 2.
Clear as mud?
In 2023, UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State had a three-way tie for first place, and the computers left the Spartans out, with the Rebels (9-5, 6-2) as No. 1 and the Broncos (8-6, 6-2) as No. 2 in the pecking order. UNLV and BSU did not play in the regular season that year, so the Rebels got to host the game by virtue of being atop the computer rankings.
The Mountain West got the composite rankings in 2023 from these four metrics: Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester, Colley’s Matrix Rankings, Massey Ratings and Peter R. Wolfe.
Fans are forgiven if they’ve heard of none of them.
For the record, the College Football Playoff rankings would be the first tiebreaker used by the Mountain West after head-to-head, but with none of the teams likely to be ranked, that won’t matter.
(Just to throw a wrench into the proceedings, if for some inexplicable reason UNLV all of a sudden cracked the Top 25 of the CFP’s final regular season rankings Tuesday evening, that could change things. It wouldn’t matter if San Diego State made the rankings, because its scenario would not change: win and in.)
What happens if the Broncos lose?
There’s a long-shot scenario — or perhaps nightmare is a better word — in which Boise State, New Mexico, UNLV, Fresno State (7-4, 4-3), Hawaii (7-4, 4-3) and Utah State, or any combination of those teams, end the season in a tie for second place at 5-3.
That scenario would include San Diego State winning to clinch first place, and the Aggies beating the Broncos. The Wolf Pack would have to upset UNLV; Fresno would have to beat San Jose State (3-8, 2-5); and Hawaii would have to beat Wyoming (4-7, 2-5). Then the computers would have to sort out the mess of teams tied behind the Aztecs in the standings.
Long story short? For Boise State, it would be best to wrap this up Friday afternoon. The Broncos kick off with Utah State at 2 p.m. Mountain time, 30 minutes after the Aztecs kick off at New Mexico. If BSU and SDSU win, then the championship game is set, with Saturday’s outcomes immaterial.
If it comes down to computer metrics, then it’s anyone’s guess.
