Where do the Broncos go from here? They’re still in conference fight — barely
Boise State football’s season is looking a whole lot murkier.
A team accustomed to sitting atop the Mountain West standings and flirting with the AP Top 25 — if not taking up residence in it — has gone in a matter of weeks from conference favorites to championship game outsiders, and has four losses on the season.
The latest blow came in Southern California on Saturday night, when the Broncos dropped their second straight game, losing 17-7 to San Diego State at Snapdragon Stadium. Boise State (6-4, 4-2) is now stuck in a massive tie for second place in the Mountain West standings with four other teams, one game behind the Aztecs (8-2, 5-1).
With two regular season games remaining, the Broncos don’t have much control.
“As painful as it is, we’ve got two promised games,” Danielson said. “And as much as it absolutely kills me, for this program, for our fan base, that we’re sitting at 6-4, 10 games in, nobody likes that, starting with me. But we’ve got to finish what we started.”
So what can the Broncos finish this season?
If we’re to go by the motto plastered across the top of its team room — win a College Football Playoff bowl game — well, that’s out of the question. It’s inconceivable that a four-loss team would get the Group of Five conference champion bid.
But winning the Mountain West championship game for a third consecutive season? That goal is somehow still on the table.
San Diego State (8-2, 5-1) sits atop the standings, with Boise State, Fresno State, New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii all at 4-2. That puts the Broncos in a precarious position, and it means their hopes of making the conference title game almost certainly will rely on tiebreakers.
The Mountain West’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head. The Broncos hold that advantage over New Mexico (41-25) and UNLV (56-31), but they lost to Fresno State (30-7) and San Diego State (17-7).
However, if there are at least three teams in a tie and they haven’t all played each other, then it comes down to a composite average of computer rankings, which could be a mess. There are bunches of scenarios.
If Boise State were to tie for second in the conference with New Mexico and UNLV, who have also played each other, the Broncos would come out on top based on beating both those teams. But if Hawaii were in the mix, the computers come into play, because the Rainbow Warriors and Broncos didn’t play this season.
A similar instance occurred in 2023, when a three-way tie at the top of the standings was broken using computer rankings, allowing UNLV and Boise State to advance to the championship game, with San Jose State left behind.
It’s simply too early to delve into every possibility yet. First and foremost, the Broncos need to win their final two games: home against Colorado State (2-8, 1-5) next week and at Utah State (5-5, 3-3) in the regular season finale, which is the day after Thanksgiving.
“The mentality is to keep fighting. Grown men finish what they started,” Boise State leading rusher Dylan Riley said Saturday. “So we’ve just got to keep working and doing what we need to do, and we’re going to be good.”
The Broncos have work to do. Redshirt junior starting quarterback Maddux Madsen was injured in the 30-7 loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, and there’s no timeline on his return. Redshirt sophomore Max Cutforth has not yet shown a lot of efficiency or prowess, and he’s without two top receivers: redshirt senior Ben Ford and redshirt junior Chris Marshall, who are injured.
“Obviously, we need our main guys,” Riley said. “But I feel like whether the main guy is down, I truly believe that the person behind them can step up and be as good as them. I really trust our team.”
That trust will have to be on display after back-to-back losses. If Boise State can rebound and get the right results from other games — UNLV and Hawaii still play each other, and New Mexico has to play San Diego State — then it could have a shot at that conference three-peat.
