So you’re saying there’s a chance? Playoff committee has Boise State on radar
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- CFP committee kept Boise State in the playoff conversation despite a 6-3 record.
- Boise State must win out, capture the Mountain West title and overcome QB injury.
- Committee decision will hinge on other Group of Five champions and James Madison.
After Boise State football’s 30-7 loss to Fresno State at home almost two weeks ago, making the College Football Playoff for a second straight season seemed unimaginable.
That loss left the Broncos at 6-3, with lopsided losses to South Florida, Notre Dame and the Mountain West-rival Bulldogs. Much of the conversation around the 12-team CFP is whether a three-loss team deserves to be in the running, so a three-loss champion from a Group of Five conference seemingly would count as an impossibility.
That was until Tuesday night.
The CFP committee released its second rankings of the season and had just one team from a G5 league — the Mountain West, Sun Belt, American Athletic, Mid-American and Conference USA — in its Top 25.
That honor went to the American Athletic Conference’s South Florida (7-2), which came in at No. 24. The Bulls, who beat Boise State 34-7 in the season opener, are 4-1 in the AAC and part of a wild six-team conference title race.
When asked about other Group of Five teams, committee chair Mack Rhoades probably surprised a few people with his answer.
“Memphis and — I’m thinking here out loud in terms of anybody else. It was Tulane, it was South Florida, it was Memphis, it was James Madison. San Diego State had the bad loss at Hawai’i,” Rhoades said.
“Boise State is certainly part of the conversation as well.”
Really?
A team that most figured to be an annual G5 contender could be clinging to the conversation because of its name and last year’s success. But Rhoades’ comment showed that nothing is out of the question at this point.
The Broncos, who play at San Diego State this week with first place in the conference on the line, are on the outside looking in right now, but a lot could change before Dec. 7.
How can Boise State squeeze into the playoffs?
What Boise State (6-3, 4-1) most obviously needs to do is win out. That means beating the Aztecs (7-2, 4-1) in San Diego on Saturday night; defeating Colorado State (2-7, 1-4) at home and Utah State (5-4, 3-2) on the road; and winning the conference championship game.
At least part of that run has to be achieved with backup quarterback Max Cutforth, who’ll be playing under center until starting QB Maddux Madsen returns from injury. Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said he’s optimistic Madsen can return this season, but no timeline has been provided.
If the Broncos don’t lose again and sit at 10-3, would that get them in over an AAC team with two or three losses? If that team is South Florida, almost certainly not, considering the Bulls own the head-to-head victory.
But the American champion could also conceivably be Memphis (8-2), Tulane (7-2), North Texas (8-1) or Navy (7-2). Even East Carolina (6-3) is in the mix still because of a 4-1 league record. And those teams all still have games against each other, meaning some more losses are guaranteed.
There’s also the one other team throwing a wrench in the scenarios: James Madison. The Dukes (8-1, 6-0) sit atop the Sun Belt Conference, which is not as good or as highly rated as the American and Mountain West. James Madison’s only loss, though, was 28-14 at Louisville, which the CFP committee ranked No. 20 this week.
If the Dukes win out, they’ll be 12-1 and a little difficult for the committee to overlook. ESPN’s strength of schedule index ranks James Madison’s schedule as the 115th best in the nation, though. By comparison, Boise State’s schedule is ranked 66th while South Florida’s is No. 54. And that’s a factor.
Long story short? The Broncos need a whole lot to go their way in both the American and the Mountain West if they’re to find their way back to the playoffs, but ... it ain’t quite over yet, believe it or not.
Boise State at San Diego State
- When: 8:30 p.m. MT Saturday
- Where: Snapdragon Stadium (35,000, grass), San Diego
- TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Robert Turbin)
- Radio: KBOI 670 AM / 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
- Records: Boise State 6-3, 4-1; San Diego State 7-2, 4-1
- Series: Boise State leads the series 6-4
- Betting line: San Diego State by 2.5
- Weather: 59 degrees, 93% chance of rain
