Boise State is ultra-aggressive on 4th down in 2025. This past game was the peak
If you feel like the Boise State Broncos have been especially aggressive on fourth downs this football season, you’re not wrong.
Even just a decade ago, college and NFL teams had a similar attitude toward fourth downs: If you’re not in desperate need of points, within a couple of yards of the first-down marker, or close to the end zone, send the special teams unit out there for a field goal or a punt.
But over the past few years, that mindset has shifted.
Since 2016, fourth-down conversions in college football have increased by nearly 30%, according to CBS Sports. In the first two weekends of the 2025 college football season, a record 377 fourth-down tries were attempted, with teams converting 54.3% of those. In the NFL, from 2017 to 2021, the frequency of conversion attempts on fourth-and-3 or less doubled.
The explosion in the use of analytics to inform in-game decisions has been a primary factor in teams willing to go for it on fourth down, and Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson is no different.
In the first game of the 2024 season against Georgia Southern — Danielson’s first season opener as a head coach — the Broncos went for it on fourth down two times, failing to convert on both occasions. Following the game, Danielson told the Idaho Statesman that he makes fourth-down decisions based on the analytics and a feel for where the game is.
That attitude hasn’t changed halfway through his second season. Boise State has already attempted 20 fourth-down plays this season, converting 11 of them.
The Broncos’ aggressiveness came to a head this past weekend when they converted six of their seven fourth-down attempts in the 41-25 victory over New Mexico. Those seven attempts are the most for Boise State in a game since as far back as 2002, records show.
The one failed fourth-down attempt, early in the game, came on a fourth-and-5 at midfield, which resulted in quarterback Maddux Madsen being sacked.
“We were always going to be aggressive; that’s the mentality we have here in all three phases,” Danielson said Saturday. “It was just the situations we were in tonight. And every game is going to be different. There are some games we won’t go for it all.”
Danielson has already proven himself to be more aggressive than his predecessor, Andy Avalos. From Avalos’ first season in 2021 through the 2023 season — he was replaced as head coach late in 2023 by Danielson — the Broncos’ fourth-down conversions were 6-for-16 (2021), 10-for-17 (2022) and 9-for-11 (2023).
In 2024, Danielson’s first full year at the helm, Boise State was 15-for-22 on fourth-down attempts, and is already 11-for-20 halfway through the 2025 season. The 20 attempts rank fifth-most in the nation, and the 11 conversions rank ninth. However, the Broncos’ conversion rate of 55% ranks a much lower 67th nationwide.
First-year offensive coordinator Nate Potter, who was previously the tight ends coach, said the conditions that lead Boise State to go for it on fourth down change by the week, depending on the opposition and situation.
“Everybody’s involved,” Potter said. “The defense knows the plan going into the week. Coach (Stacy) Collins and our special teams know the plan.
“Obviously, it’s coming from Coach Danielson, but everybody knows what we’re going to do in those situations before we get in the game, so there are no surprises.”
Boise State vs. UNLV
- When: 1:30 p.m. Saturday
- Where: Albertsons Stadium (33,000, turf)
- TV: FS1 (Dan Hellie, Petros Papadakis)
- Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
- Records: Boise State 4-2, 2-0 Mountain West; UNLV 6-0, 2-0
- Series: Boise State leads the series 11-3
- Vegas betting line: Boise State by 10.5
- Weather: 67 degrees, sunny, 3% chance of rain
