Will Boise State win Mountain West, make playoffs again? Here’s the prediction
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Boise State enters 2025 as Mountain West title favorite despite losing Jeanty.
- Quarterback Madsen must expand vertical game to offset reduced run production.
- UNLV’s major roster turnover opens door for Fresno State or San Jose State surge.
The Mountain West as we know it has just one year of life left before the bulk of its schools head for the supposedly greener pastures of the reimagined Pac-12.
Boise State fans might have one eye on July 1, 2026, when the Broncos make that move to the Pac-12 in search of a Power Five designation they have craved for years. Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey is adamant that the new Pac-12, which will contain just two members from the old league, will be considered a Power Five conference — something that might be wishful thinking.
But before worrying about all of that, both eyes need to be on this year’s Mountain West, as the Broncos try to win their seventh conference championship — and sixth MW title game — since joining a league that is about to fall victim to the realignment blender.
And in December, it should be Boise State doing that final cheering again.
The Broncos are the clear favorites to back up their 2023 and ‘24 championships — a threepeat of a feat that would be a Boise State first.
There also are plenty of things that make this season an exciting prospect.
Boise State will win, but it might not be pretty
The Broncos lost arguably the best player in college football: Ashton Jeanty, who now is a running back with the Las Vegas Raiders, having been selected in the first round. And there’s no easy way to cut it — BSU will see a dropoff in production in his absence.
Jeanty rushed for a ridiculous 2,601 yards last season — where’s that going to be made up?
Redshirt junior quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 3,018 yards last season, and often looked best when throwing against the blitz — a result of teams focusing on Jeanty.
Madsen has looked more confident and clinical than last season in fall camp, but teams will give him different looks this year, and he’ll need to improve in other parts of his game if the Broncos want to take a jump. For example, he attempted throws of 20 or more yards on just 12.8% of his attempts last season, completing just 18 of them while throwing six touchdowns and two interceptions.
He should be good for another 3,000-yard season, especially behind a veteran offensive line, but unless the passing attack becomes much more explosive, Boise State will have to pick up production elsewhere.
Redshirt freshman Sire Gaines and sixth-year transfer Malik Sherrod appear to be the Broncos’ top two running backs, but asking them to make up 2,600 rushing yards is a tall order. Gaines shows a lot of promise but is coming off a season-ending injury and has a lot to prove, including staying healthy, while Sherrod’s best rushing season at Fresno State was in 2023, when he had 996 yards.
It’s also important to remember the effect Jeanty had on close games, and how he pulled the team along when things easily could have turned to defeat. The 17-13 win at Wyoming saw an injured Jeanty drag the Broncos to a fourth-quarter game-winning drive. The 28-21 win over Nevada saw Jeanty rush for over 200 yards on 34 carries and score three of the Broncos’ four touchdowns, preserving a victory at home that shouldn’t have been tough. Even his six-touchdown, 267-yard performance against Georgia Southern likely kept the Broncos from starting the season 0-1.
The Mountain West field really hasn’t gotten more difficult
On paper, Boise State is still the best team in the conference. However, that doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t slip up in the Mountain West, with the road game at Air Force (Sept. 20) to start the league season and UNLV’s trip to Boise (Oct. 18) posing potential problems at first glance.
But even though the Broncos may see a drop in production, there doesn’t appear to be a truly serious contender to snag the conference throne from them. And they haven’t lost to a Mountain West team since falling at Fresno State on Nov. 4, 2023.
The primary challenger the past two years, UNLV, saw its head coach and a large group of players leave for Purdue. Barry Odom’s replacement, Dan Mullen, brings SEC coaching experience and a slew of transfers from big conferences, but it’ll take time for them to gel.
Nearly the entire UNLV starting team is composed of transfers, including its quarterback, two receivers, four offensive linemen, a tight end, the whole defensive line and the entire secondary. It’s a team that has potential if everything comes together, but that might take awhile, as the season-opening game showed. The Rebels narrowly beat FCS opponent Idaho State 38-31, while allowing 555 yards of offense.
Elsewhere?
San Jose State lost triple-crown receiving winner Nick Nash to graduation — he led the league in yardage, catches and TDs— but head coach Ken Niumatalolo has reloaded, and the Spartans have four winning seasons in the past five years. They also have an easy schedule, avoiding Boise State and UNLV, which could put them in prime position to make the title game.
Fresno State and Air Force could make noise as well, and the Bulldogs love nothing more than to beat the Broncos. Fresno State has won the past two against Boise State, but the teams didn’t play last season.
Boise State coach Spencer Danielson already has talked about the Air Force trip, calling it “one of the hardest games you’ll play all season long.”
Only three teams besides the Broncos had a winning conference record last season, and they must face them all in 2025. The good news is that all of those opponents — UNLV, Fresno State, Colorado State — must visit Albertsons Stadium. The four Mountain West road games are against teams that were a combined 8-20 in league contests last season.
All of that would seem to set the table nicely for a run at another unbeaten conference slate, even though it’s never that easy.
Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff?
If Boise State can get out of South Florida with a win to start the season — which could be tougher than fans will like — they should look good to be at the top of the College Football Playoff discussion as the Group of Five representative. The flip side is that an upset loss does a lot of damage.
The game at Notre Dame (Oct. 4) will be incredibly difficult to win, but that loss wouldn’t ding the team’s resume — as long as it’s the first loss of the season. Assuming the Broncos lose that game and even trip up once in the conference, a 10-2 record going into the Mountain West championship game would be nothing to scoff at.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Boise State host a second straight title game, even with one MW loss. The surprise could be the opponent, because if UNLV does struggle, the door opens quickly for San Jose State or Fresno State to make strides.
Among the other Group of Five conferences, the winner of the American Athletic has routinely been a strong team, but it’s hard to see Tulane, Memphis, Army or Navy being ranked higher by the playoff committee unless their record and quality of wins are way superior.
Win the Mountain West championship to go 12-1 or 11-2, and Boise State is in great shape for another CFP appearance.
Boise State at South Florida
- When: 3:30 p.m. Mountain time Thursday
- Where: Raymond James Stadium (75,000, grass), Tampa, Florida
- TV: ESPN (Matt Barrie, Tom Luginbill)
- Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
- Records: Boise State 12-2 last year; South Florida 7-6.
- Series: First meeting between the two teams.
- Vegas line: Boise State by 5.5
- Weather: 90 degrees, mostly sunny, 21% chance of rain.
