Boise State looks good for a bye in football playoffs. Here’s who the Broncos could play
Boise State football secured its spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history Friday night. Following other results on Saturday, the Broncos look set to receive a first-round bye.
On Friday night, Boise State defeated UNLV 21-7 in the Mountain West championship game. With the Broncos already ranked No. 10 in the CFP committee rankings, the victory meant Boise State would finish the season as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions in the nation.
The top five highest-ranked champions earn automatic berths to the CFP, but only the top four are awarded a first-round bye.
Although the Broncos stamped their spot in the playoffs Friday night, they were left waiting for Saturday’s conference championship results for the four Power 4 conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — to get a clearer picture of where they’ll stand in the playoff picture.
The final CFP committee rankings will be released at 10 a.m. Sunday, setting the 12-team playoff bracket in stone.
Here’s what happened Saturday night, where the Broncos will likely be ranked, and who they could end up playing. All team rankings mentioned are from the CFP committee.
What happened in Saturday’s championship games?
Heading into Saturday, the Big Ten and SEC had all but assured it would have its conference champions among the first-round byes.
The SEC championship saw No. 5 Georgia defeat No. 2 Texas 22-19, while the Big Ten Championship had undefeated No. 1 Oregon triumph 45-37 over No. 3 Penn State. Those victories will likely mean Oregon will claim the No. 1 seed in the playoffs while Georgia will slot in at No. 2.
Beyond those two champions, it gets murky.
In the Big 12, No. 15 Arizona State booked its ticket to the playoffs with a dominant 45-19 victory over No. 16 Iowa State. The Sun Devils sit five spots below the Broncos, meaning the committee would have to give Arizona State a big jump to pass Boise State.
However, the Broncos received a substantial boost thanks to the ACC championship game result. No. 17 Clemson defeated No. 8 SMU 34-31 on a last-second field goal to clinch a playoff berth, resulting in a second Power 4 conference champion ranked far below the Broncos.
What do these results mean for Boise State?
With Oregon and Georgia already locking up the top two seeds, the final two first-round bye spots remain in limbo heading into Sunday.
Arizona State’s big win over Iowa State presents an interesting dilemma for the CFP committee. Although Boise State led from wire-to-wire in its conference championship win over No. 20 UNLV, Arizona State’s blowout win could persuade the committee to jump the Sun Devils over the Broncos.
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark said earlier this week there was “no way” that a Group of 5 team — referencing the Mountain West champion — should be ranked higher than a Power 4 champion. Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez fired back on Thursday, saying the winner of the Mountain West would have a more impressive championship victory than whoever won the Big 12 and that the Mountain West champion should earn a first-round bye.
But those arguments may be moot, thanks to Clemson’s win over SMU.
Because Clemson defeated SMU on a final-play field goal, it is unlikely that the CFP committee would bump the No. 17 Tigers over Boise State.
With all that in mind, the Broncos seem set to receive either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed Sunday morning.
Who and where will Boise State play?
Following the first CFP committee rankings of the year in early November, CFP executive director Rich Clark said bowl games are being assigned based on honoring historic bowl traditions and proximity, with the higher-seeded teams being given preference.
If Boise State receives the No. 3 seed, that means a likely trip to the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona. But if Arizona State jumps the Broncos, it would likely be awarded the Fiesta Bowl, and Boise State would likely end up in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
So, what could tomorrow’s final seeding look like? The CFP committee will likely throw in a surprise or two, but here is a prediction of the final seeding. The following list represents seeds, meaning although Boise State may be ranked outside the top four, the Broncos would slot in as one of the top four seeds as a conference champion.
Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Georgia (SEC champion)
Boise State (Mountain West champion)
Arizona State (Big 12 champion)
Penn State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Texas
Tennessee
Indiana
SMU
Clemson (ACC champion)
With Boise State as the No. 3 seed, that would result in a matchup against the winner of No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 11 SMU. The Mustangs are in a perilous position, though, with current No. 11 Alabama also in play with a stronger strength of schedule than SMU. If the committee favors Alabama, and with Clemson guaranteed a spot, SMU could find itself on the outside looking in.
If Arizona State does pass the Broncos and Boise State ends as the No. 4 seed, it would play the winner of No. 5 Penn State and No. 12 Clemson.
Of course, these are just projections, but the Broncos are, at the very least, looking good for a first-round bye.
