Analytics or gut feeling? Here’s how Boise State’s Danielson makes fourth-down decisions
In Boise State’s opening game of the season at Georgia Southern, the Broncos went for it on fourth down twice.
The first time, on fourth-and-6, redshirt sophomore quarterback Maddux Madsen threw an incomplete pass. The second, a fourth-and-1 situation, ended in a rush for a loss of one yard from freshman running back Sire Gaines. A Georgia Southern touchdown followed.
The two attempts ultimately didn’t matter, as the Broncos went on to win 56-45. First-year head coach Spencer Danielson said after the game that he makes those fourth-down decisions using analytics and feeling where the game is in the moment. And despite the failed attempts, he’d stick by those two decisions.
Since that game, the Broncos (6-1, 3-0 Mountain West) have been perfect on fourth-down conversions, bringing their season total to 9-for-11 (81.8%). That percentage ranks the Broncos in the top 10 in the country.
“All the credit goes to our players and the plan put together by Coach (Dirk) Koetter and our O-staff, and having the confidence to be able to go out there and execute fourth down,” Danielson said Monday, two days after that down was critical in Boise State’s 29-24 victory over UNLV.
The Broncos converted all four fourth-down attempts in Las Vegas, including two plays that resulted in touchdowns. The first was a 2-yard pass to give Boise State a 20-10 lead heading into halftime. On that occasion, Madsen found junior tight end Matt Lauter open on a corner route in the back of the end zone.
The second TD on fourth down came on an Ashton Jeanty one-yard run in the fourth quarter. All that did was provide the winning points in a game the Broncos trailed 24-23 at the time.
Though Danielson credited offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the longtime college and NFL coach said he’s “scared to death” whenever the team is in a fourth-down situation.
“Coach D’s working his analytics. He and Demetri (Washington) have got their Encyclopedia Britannica book out there that they’re looking at,” Koetter said, showing his generation and long tenure in the profession.
After graduating last year, former Boise State defensive end Demitri Washington joined the staff to perform defensive quality control and assist Danielson with analytics.
“We go over all those situations,” Koetter continued. “And Coach D’s been doing a great job of letting me know at the start of a drive, mid-drive, he’s always telling me what the ‘go’ number is.”
Danielson has shown a penchant for wanting to go. Koetter, who’s been coaching football for 42 years—including as Boise State head coach from 1998 to 2000 — said he isn’t the biggest fan of analytics, but he’s warming up.
He also gave credit to Madsen for making the right moves on the field on fourth down.
“I’ve come to like it more. I used to hate it,” Koetter said. “... I just think the days of doing it by the gut are pretty much over, and that’s why Coach D is the head coach and the right guy for the job.”
Of course, Danielson doesn’t wholly rely on analytics. He said Monday that those numbers give him a frame of reference, but he still considers the game situation and momentum.
One of those moments came in the final few minutes of the first half at UNLV. The Broncos trailed 10-6 and faced a fourth-and-2 on UNLV’s 21-yard line. The easy option would be to take the three points, but Danielson opted to go for it — and Madsen found Lauter on an out-route for a 13-yard gain.
Three plays later, Madsen scrambled for a 7-yard rushing touchdown and 13-10 lead.
Then a few plays after an Andrew Simpson interception, Danielson was rolling the dice again, and Madsen and Lauter were delivering again.
“I want to be on the attack, and I want, when a team plays us, to feel like they are being attacked,” Danielson said.
And just like the two fourth downs that didn’t go Danielson’s way against Georgia Southern, he had no hesitation in making the calls against UNLV.
“If we go in that game and we’re 2-of-4 on fourth down, everybody’s telling me I’m stupid,” Danielson said. “That’s the reality of college football, and I get that’s the razor’s edge that I’ve got to live on, knowing that when we make a decision to go for it, I’ve got to be OK if it goes sideways, too.”
Boise State vs. San Diego State
When: 6 p.m. Mountain time Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium (36,363, Turf)
TV: Fox Sports 1
Radio: KBOI 670 AM and KBOI 93.1 FM/Sirius XM Ch. 162 or 201 (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 6-1, 3-0; San Diego State 3-4, 2-0
Series: Boise State leads the series 5-4
Vegas line: Boise State by 23.5 points
Weather: High of 51, low of 39, humidity 73%, increasing clouds with showers arriving later, 45% chance of rain
This story was originally published October 29, 2024 at 4:00 AM.
