Boise State showed it can play with the big boys at Oregon. Should Broncos be in Top 25?
Is Boise State football officially “back”?
The Broncos lost 37-34 at then-No. 7 Oregon on Saturday night, the difference being a field goal from the Ducks as time expired. The loss dropped the Broncos to 1-1 to start the season, but it was one of those losses — in a game they could have easily won — that brings up mixed emotions.
Boise State entered as 19-point underdogs. If not for a disjointed special teams performance, which led straight to two of Oregon’s touchdowns, the Broncos would have left Autzen Stadium with a 2-0 record, a feather-in-their-cap victory and an AP Top 25 ranking.
Even without the victory, many Boise State fans struck a tone of frustration that the Broncos didn’t crack the latest rankings when they were released Sunday.
Boise State received 77 points, good enough for 27th place. It was an improvement from the week prior, when the Broncos had 44 votes and were in the 28th position. Voters are certainly paying attention to Boise State. (In the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Broncos are not as highly thought of: They are in the 33rd spot.)
Meanwhile, Oregon dropped two spots in the Top 25, to No. 9.
But should Boise State be ranked at this point of the season? If Spencer Danielson’s team were to make it at some point, it will be the first time since the COVID-impacted 2020 season, when the Broncos were No. 21 before taking a 51-17 beating from No. 9 BYU at Albertsons Stadium and dropping out.
From a personal standpoint — reflected in my Week 3 poll — the Broncos don’t deserve to be ranked — not yet. But they likely will be soon.
Boise State has the potential to be a ranked team, push for a second consecutive Mountain West championship and stake a claim in the extended College Football Playoffs. The schedule is pretty favorable, and this is a team with a lot of positives.
But they must improve in a few areas before they can lay claim to a lofty ranking.
Defensive improvements
Boise State showed defensive improvements between Week 1 and Week 2. A lot of them. The defense gave up all 45 points in its opening win over Georgia Southern. Oregon’s offense accounted for just 23 points, with the Broncos’ special teams yielding two touchdowns.
In fact, one might surmise that Boise State would have been ranked this week if not for its leaky defensive performance in Statesboro, Georgia. A more impressive victory there could have made a difference.
The explosive plays that have haunted the Broncos since last season still remain, though — think the 34-yard and 59-yard touchdown passes thrown by Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel. But Gabriel also was sacked four times, nearly totaling the five sacks allowed by Oregon in 2022 and 2023 combined.
Boise State’s D also forced and recovered two fumbles, allowing the team to take a fourth-quarter lead.
Oregon has the most formidable offense Boise State will face all season — and almost certainly the toughest quarterback, with Gabriel considered a Heisman candidate. Against weaker opposition, if the Broncos can keep up the physicality they showed against Oregon, they’ll be in good stead.
Is the offense up to scratch?
On the opposite side of the ball, it can sometimes feel like it’s not so much the Boise State offense but the Ashton Jeanty offense.
Junior running back Jeanty is the hottest running back in college right now, having rushed for 459 yards and nine touchdowns through two games. His 459 rushing yards exceed the team totals of 110 of the 134 Division I FBS programs. And he’s getting the national attention that goes with that.
Two games into the season, it’s not perfectly clear that redshirt sophomore Maddux Madsen, who beat out USC transfer Malachi Nelson for the starting quarterback job, has solidified himself as “the guy.” Madsen was just 17-for-40 for 148 yards at Oregon.
The Broncos found themselves in a passing situation of 2nd-and-long or 3rd- or 4th-and-5 or greater 23 times against Oregon. On those plays, Madsen was 12-for-23 for 84 yards.
The offense also went through struggles sustaining drives, punting eight times and gaining only two first downs in the third quarter, when Boise State saw its 20-14 halftime lead turn into a 27-20 deficit.
As for Jeanty, who had 200 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns, a bulk of his success came on just a handful of plays. Of his 192 rushing yards, 130 came on four runs, including a 70-yard touchdown. Of his 25 attempts, 10 went for less than 2 yards.
That’s not to say Jeanty had a bad night — Boise State offensive line coach Tim Keane noted early last week that he expected 4-5-yard gains to be considered a good play against Oregon.
For an offense that coordinator Dirk Koetter has described as “run first,” there were too many downs that required a pass. If Boise State wants to break into the Top 25, its offense will have to be more than just Jeanty against the top opponents.
The rankings of other teams
One of the biggest questions about the AP poll is whether a team gets ranked based on merit or potential. There are arguments that Boise State deserves to be ranked based on potential, for sure. As for merit, even the Broncos might tell you that keeping it close at Oregon shouldn’t count.
“You’ve got to find a way to win that game,” Danielson said Saturday night. “That’s the thing I told our team. You come to Boise State to be a part of our nation, you gotta win that game.”
Here’s what the Top 25 newcomers this week did to warrant being ranked:
Iowa State — Defeated No. 21 Iowa 20-19 on the road. Iowa State is now No. 21.
Nebraska — Defeated Colorado 28-10 after leading 28-0 at halftime and taking its foot off the gas. Nebraska is No. 23.
Boston College — Defeated then-No. 10 Florida State in Week 1 and then stomped Duquesne 56-0. Eagles are No. 24.
Northern Illinois — Defeated then-No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 in South Bend, Indiana. Northern Illinois is No. 25.
Among other teams receiving votes were Illinois, which posted a 23-17 victory over then-No. 19 Kansas, and Syracuse, which beat former No. 23 Georgia Tech 31-28.
As well as Boise State performed against Oregon, it’s tough for a Group of Five team with a loss to crack the rankings this early in the season. Fair or not, the power teams still dominate. Only four teams with losses are in the Top 25: LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame and Clemson.
The good news for Boise State is that after a bye week, the Broncos host 0-2 Portland State, which has lost 70-30 to Washington State and 43-16 to Weber State.
The week after that, Washington State of the former Pac-12 visits Albertsons Stadium. A good win in that game would leave the Broncos 4-1 and difficult to ignore when it comes to the always-fluid Top 25 voting.
