Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s conference game at Wyoming
Wyoming’s War Memorial Stadium is a daunting place, especially late in the season.
There’s the elevation. At 7,220 feet above sea level, it’s the highest college football stadium in America. Boise sits at 2,730 feet.
There’s the weather. The threat of snow is always present in Laramie late in the year. The Broncos look like they’re going to luck out and avoid playing a second straight game in the snow, but it’s going to get down to 13 degrees on Saturday night, and it might be windy.
Boise State’s game at Wyoming (5 p.m., CBS Sports Network) comes with extra pressure. The Broncos are the last remaining undefeated team in Mountain West play, and they need a win to capture the Mountain Division title and secure a spot in the conference championship game on Dec. 3.
It would be the Broncos’ fifth all-time appearance in the title game, and their first since a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in 2020.
“All of our goals and everything we have worked for is right in front of us,” Boise State coach Andy Avalos said. “This conference requires us to be at our best every week, and that’s especially true this week.”
Making the championship game would mark quite the turnaround for the Broncos (7-3, 6-0 Mountain West), who were 2-2 after a loss to UTEP on Sept. 23.
NOTES:
▪ Boise State defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson is one of 51 nominees for the 2022 Broyles Award, which is presented annually to the top assistant coach in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
This season, Boise State is one of three schools to rank in the top 15 nationally for red zone touchdowns allowed (2nd), passing defense (3rd), passing efficiency defense (10th), scoring defense (11th), rushing defense (14th) and third-down percentage defense (14th).
Keys to victory
Stop the run: Wyoming averages 188.8 rushing yards a game, which ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West. Boise State is giving up 107 rushing yards a game, which leads the conference. Saturday’s showdown at War Memorial Stadium will be an old-school slugfest, and it will be decided by which team controls the line of scrimmage. The bulk of Wyoming’s reputation has been built on its physical rushing attack. The Cowboys are going to lean on their big, experienced offensive line, and Boise State’s defensive front has to be ready for the challenge.
Boise State has limited teams to less than 100 rushing yards in five games this season. The Broncos held Colorado State to just 3 yards on the ground three weeks ago. Nevada managed 127 last week. Wyoming has rushed for more than 300 yards in two of its past three games, including a season-high 365 against Hawaii.
Get after the QB: After not recording a sack two weeks ago in a loss to BYU, the Broncos were all over Nevada’s quarterbacks last week. They posted four sacks in a 41-3 win over the Wolf Pack, and they could use a similar performance this weekend.
Wyoming quarterback Andrew Peasley exited last week’s game early because of a concussion, and he’s day-to-day heading into Saturday’s game, Cowboys head coach Craig Bohl said on Monday. If Peasley doesn’t play, Wyoming will turn to Jayden Clemons, who led them to a win last week but is far from an experienced quarterback. He has played in just three career games, and the more pressure he’s under, the more likely he is to make a mistake.
Boise State won’t have pass rusher George Tarlas, who was lost for the season to a hip injury. There’s also been no official word on edge rusher Demitri Washington, but it’s unlikely he plays. The Broncos are probably going to have to lean on young pass rushers Deven Wright and Gabe Hunter again. The duo combined for 1.5 sacks against Nevada.
Finish drives: Five of the Broncos’ first nine drives ended with a touchdown last week. They need to finish drives with seven points again this week because field goals aren’t going to cut it against Wyoming. The Cowboys are giving up 23.1 points a game this fall, and they’ve made a habit out of pulling out close wins. Wyoming held off Hawaii 27-20 two weeks ago and came back to beat Colorado State 14-13 last week.
Boise State needs this win to secure its spot in the Mountain West championship game. It’s too important a game to let Wyoming hang around. The Broncos have to make the most out of every trip into the red zone, they have to capitalize on the Cowboys’ mistakes and they’ve got put the game out of reach with aggressive play calling.
Key matchups
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. Wyoming RB Titus Swen: Wyoming seems to have a big, physical running back that’s destined to play in the NFL just about every year. This year, it’s Swen — a 5-foot-11, 206-pound junior who leads the Cowboys with 752 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He’s averaging 4.6 yards a carry, and he posted a season-high 160 rushing yards in a win over Utah State on Oct. 22.
Schramm has been one of the most consistent players on the Broncos’ defense this season. There isn’t a linebacker in the country that’s fully healthy at this point in the year. The physical demands of the position are too great for that, but Schramm rarely comes off the field. He just continues to fill rushing lanes with the best of them, and he leads the Broncos with 74 tackles.
Boise State RB George Holani vs. Wyoming LB Easton Gibbs: Holani has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in four of the Broncos’ past five games, and he’s closing in on the second 1,000-yard season of his career. Holani ranks No. 5 in the Mountain West with 845 rushing yards this season. He posted 1,014 as a freshman in 2019.
Gibbs is the latest in a long line of Wyoming linebackers destined for the NFL, following Logan Wilson (Bengals) and Chad Muma (Jaguars). Gibbs leads the Cowboys and ranks No. 3 in the conference with 88 tackles. He also has two sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss to his credit.
Predictions
Boise State is a 13.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 44 points. The Broncos are 15-1 all-time against Wyoming, and they’ve won five straight in the series.
The Broncos are 15-5 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite on the road, and they’re 9-9-2 against the spread. Wyoming is 11-9 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home and 14-6 ATS.
My pick (7-3 straight up, 7-3 ATS): Offensively, Wyoming isn’t that scary. The Cowboys have a solid rushing attack that is going to grind out tough yards, but they’re one-dimensional. The passing game is all but nonexistent. Wyoming’s defense is scary. The Cowboys are tough to run against, they disguise coverages well and they put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This will be one of the best defenses the Broncos face this season, and a good defense can almost always keep teams in games. Boise State’s offense has come a long way. Taylen Green has grown as a passer in the past month, and that may be the difference here. Wyoming keeps it close, but Green throws a late touchdown pass to seal the win. Final score: Boise State 28, Wyoming 24
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (5-4 straight up, 3-6 ATS): It seems like (Wyoming) plays up or down to their level of competition. They beat Air Force at home. The only clunker they’ve had was against San Jose State. Whoever wins out is going to control their own destiny. Wyoming is 7-4 against the spread as a home dog the last five years, but they are 1-15 straight up against Boise State. And who knows what’s going on with the quarterback situation? I do think there’s a chance Peasley might play, but if not, Clemons has played very limited and thrown 13 passes all year. I think Wyoming is going to come to play. I think two touchdowns is a little high at home. I think Boise State wins the game, but I’ll take the points. Final score: Boise State 28, Wyoming 20
BOISE STATE AT WYOMING
When: 5 p.m. Saturday
Where: War Memorial Stadium (29,181), Laramie, Wyoming
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Sherree Burress)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 7-3, 6-0 MW; Wyoming 7-3, 5-1 MW
Series: Boise State is 15-1 all-time against Wyoming, including five consecutive victories.
Vegas line: Boise State by 13.5
Weather: High of 34 degrees, 1% chance of rain, 18 mph wind
This story was originally published November 17, 2022 at 3:00 PM.
