Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s game vs. Colorado State
The last time Boise State hosted Mountain West foe Colorado State, it proved to be an unforgettable night.
The Broncos were in the middle of the 2020 season, which was shortened to seven games because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Albertsons Stadium was all but empty, save the 1,100 people allowed in because of restrictions on the size of crowds.
The virus and injuries had wreaked such havoc on Boise State’s roster that a young Ben Dooley was asked to switch from offensive to defensive line for the night.
Despite all the hurdles, Boise State cruised to a 52-21 win over Colorado State on Nov. 12, 2020. The Broncos won in such convincing fashion because of big plays on special teams and an unlikely touchdown by an offensive lineman.
Boise State’s special teams scored three touchdowns that night. Two-time Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year Avery Williams blocked two punts that were returned for touchdowns, the second of which was scored by current starting linebacker DJ Schramm.
Defensive tackle Scott Matlock also blocked a field goal attempt that was returned for a touchdown by former Boise Sate defensive back Kekaula Kaniho.
Boise State’s final touchdown of the night was scored after star wide receiver Khalil Shakir fumbled just before crossing the goal line and Nick Crabtree was there to recover it in the end zone.
The Broncos could use a big performance from its special teams against Colorado State on Saturday (5 p.m., FS1).
Boise State’s kickoff and punt returners have been abysmal this year, and the Broncos have just one blocked punt to their credit this season.
NOTE: Boise State running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty were full participants at practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. Holani was a late scratch last week at Air Force, and Jeanty missed the second half with an undisclosed injury after posting 95 all-purpose yards before halftime. Boise State coach Andy Avalos would not comment on either running back’s health on Monday, as is his custom.
Keys to victory
Finish in the red zone: Boise State kicker Jonah Dalmas is 14-for-16 on field goals this season, and he’s on pace to break his own single-season program record of 26. As impressive as the former walk-on’s season has been, too many of his field goals have been kicked in the red zone. Boise State has scored on 25-of-28 trips to the red zone this season, but just 15 of those are touchdowns, so the team is barely above 50%.
Boise State offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter admitted earlier this week that he’s been too conservative with the plays he’s called in the red zone. Expect that to change. The Broncos need to find ways to finish more drives with TDs, and Koetter is going to pull out all the stops to make that happen.
Free Taylen Green: It’s been obvious the past few weeks that Boise State quarterback Taylen Green has been working hard to improve as a passer. It showed last week when he posted a career-high 227 passing yards in a 19-14 win over Air Force.
After lighting a fire under the fan base with a 74-yard touchdown run in the season opener at Oregon State, Green has been much more reluctant to pull the ball down and run it himself in recent weeks. There’s no denying that it’s important for him to prove he’s more than just a threat to run, but making sure he’s playing to his strengths is also important. For Green, his strength is his speed and freakishly long stride — at least for now.
Avalos and Koetter both said this week that they’d like to see Green run the ball more. The coaches need to unleash him this week and let him run free against the Rams. The more he gets on the perimeter and puts that athleticism on film for opposing coaches to see, the wider the running lanes in the middle of the field will get for Holani and Jeanty.
Take some shots: Figuring out how to help the wide receivers create more separation from defenders was something the Broncos focused on during the bye week, Avalos said. Koetter said Monday that the receivers played one of their best games of the season against Air Force. The coaches need to a find a way to build on that this weekend, if for no other reason than to create some chemistry and confidence in the passing game for the home stretch.
The Broncos have some serious athletes at wide receiver. Stefan Cobbs and Latrell Caples are right up there with Green as the fastest players on the team. Davis Koetter is a savvy receiver with a large frame that, perhaps, hasn’t been utilized enough in the short passing game, and redshirt freshman Eric Mcallister showed he can be a deep threat with a 44-yard catch against Air Force.
Boise State’s wide receivers have plenty of potential. It just hasn’t translated to the field very often this season. Whether it’s attention to the smallest details, better decisions by the quarterback or more creative play-calling from the coaches, the Broncos have to find a way to get more out of the passing game consistently.
Key matchups
Boise State LB Ezekiel Noa vs. Colorado State RB Avery Morrow: The final season of Noa’s college career has already been one of his best. He’s third on the team in tackles (34) and sacks (3.5). The sixth-year senior also notched the first interception of his career against Fresno State and sealed the Broncos’ win over Air Force last week with a pass breakup on fourth down.
Noa and Schramm are going to have their hands full trying to contain Morrow on Saturday. The 5-foot-11, 210-pound junior leads Colorado State with 500 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Morrow has posted three straight 100-yard rushing games, including 147 yards and two touchdowns last week in a win over Hawaii.
Boise State CB Caleb Biggers vs. Colorado State WR Tory Horton: Horton was one of several players who followed head coach Jay Norvell from Nevada to Colorado State this year. The 6-2, 180-pound junior has been a bright spot on an offense that has struggled mightily. Horton leads the team with 35 catches for 538 yards and five touchdowns. The Rams’ next-leading receiver, Tyler McCullouch, has just 13 catches.
Biggers has emerged as Boise State’s top cornerback. The fifth-year senior, who joined the Broncos in 2021 after three years at Bowling Green, leads the team’s cornerbacks with 18 tackles. He snagged the first interception of his career in the season opener at Oregon State.
Predictions
Boise State is 11-0 in its all-time series with Colorado State, which dates back to 2011. The Broncos traveled to Fort Collins, Colorado, last season and dispatched the Rams 28-19. Boise State leads the nation with a 153-20 record in regular-season conference games since 2000.
The Broncos are a 27-point favorite on Saturday, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 42.5 points. Boise State is 16-4 in its past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home, and the Broncos are 12-8 against the spread. Colorado State is 5-15 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 11-9 ATS.
My pick (5-2 straight up, 5-2 ATS): The identity of both of these offenses revolves around the running game. Boise State’s backfield is just better. When Green calls his own number and picks up yards, it opens things for the rest of the backfield. And whether that’s Holani, Jeanty or Utah State transfer Elelyon Noa, the rest of those guys have shown they’re pretty special, too.
Morrow is as talented a running back as the Broncos will face this season, but the Rams don’t have much quality depth behind him. They also haven’t been able to lean on the passing game, which was Norvell’s specialty at Nevada. Boise State just has more talent than Colorado State on both sides of the ball. The Broncos run away with this one and get their backups on the field for most, if not all, of the fourth quarter. Final score: Boise State 42, Colorado State 10
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (3-3 straight up, 2-4 ATS): I know Colorado State pretty well. I think I have a feel for them. Colorado State is going to be a good team. Their best unit right now is their defensive line. But as we’ve seen, Boise Sate all of a sudden has a big-time running game. Green, he drew some comparisons from the Air Force coach to Vince Young. Pretty lofty comparisons. He’s Not at that level yet, but things are going in the right direction. Colorado State quarterback Clay Millen is healthy. He started the year horrific. Their offensive line couldn’t protect him, and he hadn’t played enough. It showed he wasn’t ready. But he’s healthy again and probably playing his best. I think Boise State wins, but I’m going to take Colorado State to stay under the (spread). Final score: Boise State 37, Colorado State 17
COLORADO STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 5 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Adam Alexander, Devin Gardner)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 5-2, 4-0 MW; Colorado State 2-5, 2-1 MW
Series: Boise State is 11-0 in its all-time series against Colorado State, which dates back to 2011.
Vegas line: Boise State by 27
Weather: High of 58 degrees, 2% chance of rain, 6 mph wind
This story was originally published October 27, 2022 at 2:47 PM.
