Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s game vs. Fresno State
A member of Boise State’s royal family will help lead Fresno State into Albertsons Stadium on Saturday (7:45 p.m., FS1).
Kirby Moore, the younger brother of former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, is in his first season as offensive coordinator at Fresno. He played wide receiver at Boise State from 2009 to 2013, and the 34-year-old coached the Bulldogs’ receivers starting in 2017.
Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford, who returned to the program this year, hired Moore in 2017. He said naming him offensive coordinator in December 2021 was a no-brainer.
“He’s a bright, young coach with a very bright future,” Tedford told the Idaho Statesman at Mountain West media days in July. “He cares about the players, and he works tirelessly to put them in the best position to succeed.”
Moore and Tedford met when they were both at Washington, working for former Boise State head coach Chris Petersen. Moore was a graduate assistant for the Huskies in 2016 and Tedford was an offensive analyst.
“He was kind of quiet the first time we met, but he opened up eventually and I could tell how smart he was,” Tedford said. “He’s going to be able to take this coaching thing as far as he wants. We just hope we can hang on to him for a couple years.”
Moore’s unit is averaging 412.3 yards of offense a game, which ranks No. 3 in the Mountain West this season. The Bulldogs lead the conference with 287.8 passing yards a game, and they’re No. 9 with 124.5 rushing yards per contest. But this week they will be without their starting quarterback again.
Boise State coach Andy Avalos said it’s always special to see fellow alums return, even if they’re on the opposing sideline. Avalos was a linebacker for the Broncos from 2000 to 2004.
“My hat’s off to Kirby,” Avalos said. “He’s a young coach who has obviously done a tremendous job.”
Keys to victory
Lean on the three-headed monster: Boise State’s coaches spent the whole month of August singing the praises of a much-improved running game. Avalos called the backfield explosive after both fall scrimmages, which were closed to the media, but it took five games into the season for the running game to look exciting.
Quarterback Taylen Green looked more willing to keep the ball himself in the second half of the Broncos’ 35-13 win over San Diego State last Friday. Running backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty were decisive with their cuts and looked impossible to tackle at times. Boise State racked up 273 of its 316 rushing yards after halftime because the Broncos’ coaches put the game in the hands of that extremely explosive trio.
Whether it’s read-option plays, traditional stretch option plays or designed quarterback runs, Boise State offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter needs to get Green comfortable running the ball early. He also needs to make sure Holani and Jeanty combine for at least 40 touches. Boise State is 9-0 when Holani has rushed for at least 100 yards in games since 2019.
Force some turnovers: Boise State’s defense forced 23 turnovers last season and picked up where it left off this year with three takeaways in a season-opening loss at Oregon State. The defense, with the nickname “The Boneyard Boys,” has struggled to repeat that success. The Broncos have forced just two turnovers in the past four games: a fumble against UT Martin and safety Tyreque Jones’ interception against San Diego State.
The Broncos are facing an offense this week that is missing its leader. Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener is expected to miss his second straight game with an ankle injury. His replacement, sophomore Logan Fife, threw two interceptions last week in the Bulldogs’ surprising loss to UConn.
Boise State needs to get back to forcing some turnovers this weekend, and the sooner the Broncos can do it, the better. If they can force a couple of early takeaways and turn them into points, the Bulldogs will start pressing and more mistakes are sure to follow.
Stretch the defense vertically: Green’s athleticism and freakishly long stride make his skill set ideal for forcing defenses to account for the quarterback in perimeter running game, which opens rushing and passing lanes in the middle of the field. Green’s short and intermediate passes were much more accurate against San Diego State than in his first appearance of the season against Oregon State.
Then problem is that everything Green does well is now on film, so Boise State’s coaches have to find an unexpected way to attack the defense. On Saturday, Koetter needs to call some vertical passing routes and let Green show off his big arm, especially when the secondary starts creeping toward the line of scrimmage to defend the run.
A prime candidates to catch one of those deep passes would be wide receiver Cole Wright, who hauled in a 47-yard pass on a seam route early in the Broncos’ win at New Mexico. The Broncos’ coaches might just dust that play off at some point Saturday.
Key matchups
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. Fresno State RB Jordan Mims: Schramm, a redshirt senior, has been on a tear this season. He has led the team with double-digit tackles in three of the Broncos’ five games, including a career-high 16 against UTEP. He also posted 11 tackles in games against Oregon State and San Diego State, and he added four tackles for loss and a forced fumble last week against the Aztecs.
Schramm leads the Broncos and the Mountain West with 55 tackles, but he’s going to have his hands full on Saturday against one of the most elusive running backs in the conference.
Mims, a 6-foot, 205-pound sixth-year senior, is averaging 5.3 yards a carry. He leads Fresno State with 348 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, and he posted 114 in the Bulldogs’ loss to USC. Mims was second on the team with 710 rushing yards last season, and he caught 25 passes for 324 yards and four more scores.
Boise State LT John Ojukwu vs. Fresno State DE David Perales: Boise State’s offensive line hasn’t been consistently good the past few years, but the unit has two things going for it: an athletic quarterback like Green, who can cover up deficiencies, and Ojukwu, who has five years’ worth of starting experience.
Ojukwu is going to have to put that experience to good use Saturday against Perales, who is one of the most experienced pass rushers in the Mountain West. The fifth-year senior was a second-team all-conference pick last season, and he leads Fresno State with two sacks this year.
Predictions
Boise State leads its all-time series with Fresno State 16-7, including a 40-14 win last season in Fresno, California. The last time the Bulldogs beat the Broncos in Albertsons Stadium was a 19-16 overtime win in the 2018 Mountain West championship game.
Boise State is only a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday, according to Las Vegas, even though the Bulldogs are 1-3 and coming off a loss to a team that had not beaten an FBS program since 2019. The over/under is 45.5 points. The Broncos are 16-4 in their past 20 regular season games as a favorite at home and 12-8 against the spread. The Bulldogs are 3-17 in their past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road and 9-11 ATS.
My pick (3-2 straight up, 3-2 ATS): Boise State seems to have found a winning combination with Green at quarterback and Koetter as the offensive coordinator. Koetter’s experience in college and the NFL should pay dividends this year, especially when it comes to in-game adjustments. He’s experienced enough to know where a team’s greatest strength lies, and for Boise State, that’s in the backfield.
Fresno State is sure to throw a wrinkle into the game plan based on what Green put on film last week against San Diego State, but I don’t think the Bulldogs are the same team without Haener, and they might miss injured safety Evan Williams even more. Boise State racks up a ton of rushing yards behind Green, Holani and Jeanty, and the Broncos run away with this one. Final score: Boise State 42, Fresno State 14
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (2-2 straight up, 1-3 ATS): I looked for a rocket scientist for a half last week and then the switch came on. It was incredible. It was like night and day. I even asked my wife “what’s going on here?” (Boise State) just stuck to the game plan. Usually when you stick with a game plan, you have to make changes. They didn’t. They just kept running those same plays and Green got hot. He’s a dual-threat quarterback. His speed and his passing, it was something to behold. Dirk Koetter is pushing all the right buttons right now. For Fresno State, this is their third straight road game. They lost to lowly UConn last week, and they’ve got major issues when Jake Haener isn’t in there. I’m going with Boise State. They keep rolling. Final score: Boise State 28, Fresno State 14
FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 7:45 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust, Pretos Papadakis)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 3-2, 2-0 MW; Fresno State 1-3, 0-0 MW
Series: Boise State leads all-time series 16-7, including a 40-14 win last season in Fresno, California.
Vegas line: Boise State by 6.5
Weather: High of 80 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 7 mph wind
This story was originally published October 6, 2022 at 3:38 PM.
