Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s game vs. San Diego State
So much has been going on around the Boise State football team in the past week that it’s easy to forget there’s a game to be played this week.
And it’s a big one.
Boise State hosts San Diego State on Friday (6 p.m., FS1) in a key Mountain West game that could have a lasting effect on the race to a conference championship.
The Broncos (2-2, 1-0 MW) are undefeated in conference play, having won at New Mexico 31-14 on Sept. 9. The Aztecs (2-2) have yet to play a conference game this season, but this is a critical contest in the league race.
Boise State can’t afford a loss with a home game against Fresno State (Oct. 8) and a road trip to Air Force (Oct. 22) on the horizon.
It’s not the best time to have a bunch of distractions, but Broncos head coach Andy Avalos said the players can’t let anything deter them from the goal of a Mountain West championship.
“Our goal is still right in front of us,” Avalos said. “I know we have the right young men to do it. I know we have the right coaches to do it.”
Boise State fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough less than 24 hours after a loss to 15-point underdog UTEP last Friday. Former Boise State and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter will take over as offensive coordinator for the rest of the season.
Two days after Plough was fired, four-year starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier decided to transfer. He has two years of eligibility remaining, and redshirt freshman Taylen Green will start on Friday.
Change is never easy, but echoing Avalos, Boise State defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson said that’s no excuse not to compete every play.
“If you’re an elite competitor, you should be focused on what is the next task at hand,” Danielson said. “You can control how you prep, you can control how you train and you can control how you get ready for this game, and at the end of the day, that should be all that matters.”
Both of San Diego State’s losses this season have come against teams from the Pac-12. They fell 38-20 to Arizona and lost to Utah 35-7. The Aztecs’ first win of the season was against Idaho State, and they edged past Toledo 17-14 last week.
Keys to victory
Play to Green’s strengths: Koetter has probably forgotten more about football than most will ever know. So he probably doesn’t need to hear this, but I’m going to write it anyway. Green is not Bachmeier — a pocket passer who won the starting job four years in a row. Green is not going to be able to beat the Aztecs by standing in the pocket and delivering accurate throws. He is much better suited to getting out of the pocket and forcing defenses to account for him as a runner and a passer.
There has been no official word from Boise State about who will call the plays Friday. Wide receiver Matt Miller has experience calling plays from his time as offensive coordinator at Montana State, but in all likelihood, Koetter will make the calls. He needs to go heavy on designed quarterback runs, and he needs to get Green out of the pocket as much as possible. If Green hits a few big runs early, the Aztecs’ secondary is going to start creeping toward the line of scrimmage and open things up in the passing game.
Make Burmeister throw the ball: Boise State safety Seyi Oladipo said Wednesday that even though the Broncos have faced several dual-threat quarterbacks this season, San Diego State’s Braxton Burmeister is the first one who’s a truly talented runner.
Burmeister, a transfer from Virginia Tech, is one of the fastest players at San Diego State, Danielson said. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound senior rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown against Idaho State earlier this year, and he’s third on the team with 149 yards on the ground.
Burmeister is averaging 5.3 yards a carry, but Boise State’s defense has to find a way to keep him in the pocket and make him throw. Like Green, that’s not his specialty, and mistakes are bound to be made when a quarterback is taken out of his comfort zone.
Stay ahead of the chains: Boise State’s defense could not get off the field against UTEP. The Miners finished the game 8-of-15 on third down because they picked up positive yardage on first and second down, which made it easy to move the chains on third-and-short. The result by the second half was a tired Boise State defense that was suddenly getting gashed on the ground. UTEP had just 50 rushing yards at halftime, but the Miners finished the game with 199.
Boise State’s defense has to find ways to win on first and second down, thereby forcing San Diego State to take some chances on third-and-long. The Broncos have to be aggressive and rack up some tackles for loss early in drives. They have to keep Burmeister from hurting them with his legs, and they have to generate pressure up the middle. That might mean calling more stunts on the defensive line or being more aggressive when it comes to blitzing the linebackers.
Key matchups
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. San Diego State RB Jordan Byrd: Schramm posted a career-high 16 tackles Friday at UTEP. It’s the second time he has posted double-digit tackles in a game this season. The redshirt senior, a first-year starter, racked up 11 in the season opener at Oregon State, and he leads the team with 33 tackles. Schramm is going to have his hands full this weekend, though, especially if middle linebacker Ezekiel Noa misses his second straight game with an undisclosed injury.
San Diego State’s Byrd had his breakout game last week against Toledo. He was held mostly in check the first three games of the season, but he posted 115 yards and two touchdowns against the Rockets. He’s a shifty runner who is much stronger than his 5-9, 170-pound frame suggests, and Schramm is going to have to be on his toes to keep him in check.
Boise State RB George Holani vs. San Diego State LB Cade McDonald: The Aztecs’ defense is led by one of the top linebackers in the Mountain West. He earned the nickname “The Toothless Cowboy” after one of his front teeth was knocked out in a game against Utah last season. He also turned it into a successful NIL deal and even started his own clothing brand, but McDonald is all business on the field.
McDonald was a first-team All-Mountain West pick the past two years, and the 6-3, 235-pound senior is third on the team with 21 tackles this season.
He will be tasked with shutting down Boise State’s running game, which is led by Holani. The redshirt junior posted his first 100-yard rushing game in almost a year in the Broncos’ home opener against UT Martin. He finished with 75 yards at UTEP and leads Boise State with 261 rushing yards this season.
Predictions
San Diego State leads Boise State 4-3 in the all-time series, which dates back to 2011. The Aztecs have won two in a row, including a 27-16 win in Carson, California, last season. The last time the Broncos beat San Diego State was 31-14 win in 2017.
Boise State is a six-point favorite on Friday, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 39 points.
The Broncos are 14-6 in their past 20 regular season games as a favorite on the road, and they’re 8-10-2 against the spread. San Diego State is 10-10 in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home and 13-7 ATS.
My pick (2-2 straight up, 2-2 ATS): Koetter is experienced enough to know he has to tailor his scheme to fit his personnel. That’s exactly what he’s going to do with Green on Friday night. He’s going to let Green use his legs, and he’s going to get him out of the pocket. We might even see a little option football against the Aztecs.
San Diego State’s defense is sure to throw some sort of wrinkle into its plan to confuse the Broncos’ young quarterback, but he has next-level athleticism that is tough to defend no matter what. If Green and Holani can both getting rolling early, Boise State could run away with it. Realistically, though, this is a game that features two good defenses and two teams that rely on the running game. It will be close the whole way, but I think Boise State kicks a late field goal to win it. Final score: Boise State 17, San Diego State 14
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (1-2 straight up, 0-3 ATS): The two worst losses last week were my University of Miami Hurricanes and your Boise State Broncos. I was sick watching both of those games. Less than 100 rushing and passing yards versus UTEP. Pathetic. Now (Boise State) makes a change at coordinator, their first-string quarterback hits the transfer portal and they have numerous tight end and offensive line injuries. San Diego State won last year 27-16 and dominated the second half. San Diego State is not as good as they were last year, but the dog is 13-3 in the last 16 San Diego State game. Both teams are a tough watch and are way down from last year. I’m going to say the Broncos win, but I’m taking the 6.5 (points). Final score: Boise State 23, San Diego State 20
SAN DIEGO STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 6 p.m. Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: FS1 (Alex Faust, Petros Papadakis)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 2-2, 1-0 MW; San Diego State 2-2, 0-0
Series: San Diego State leads Boise State 4-3 in the all-time series, which dates back to 2011. The Aztecs have won two in a row.
Vegas line: Boise State by 6
Weather: High of 73 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 13 mph winds
This story was originally published September 29, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
