Keys to victory, betting line, predictions, matchups for Boise State’s game at UTEP
The Boise State football team has plenty of history with Texas.
The Broncos haven’t played a regular season game in the Lone Star State since 2004, but Boise State recruits Texas in a big way and has 12 players from there on its roster.
Wide receivers Stefan Cobbs and Latrell Caples, quarterback Taylen Green, cornerback Markel Reed and defensive tackle Herbert Gums all hale from Texas, and they’re all excited about going home for the Broncos’ game at UTEP on Friday (7 p.m., CBS Sports Network).
“I like to represent my state,” Gums told reporters on Tuesday. “We argue all the time about Texas and California, and which state has the best high school football.”
Boise State coach Andy Avalos is excited about the trip, too. He said Monday that he’d like to see the Broncos schedule more games in Texas because of how heavily the program recruits the state. He said Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey is of a similar mind.
“It’s one of the biggest areas that we recruit,” Avalos said. “It’s a big deal for these young men. ... To be able to go back home and play in your home state, it is a big deal.”
Boise State has a couple of games scheduled in Texas: at Houston in 2025 and at Rice in 2032.
The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins against New Mexico and UT Martin, and another successful outing would be big heading into a daunting stretch that includes facing Mountain West foes San Diego State (Sept. 30), Fresno State (Oct. 8) and Air Force (Oct. 22) in consecutive games.
Keys to victory
Get off to another fast start: Boise State’s offense didn’t waste time getting on the scoreboard against UT Martin last weekend. Running back George Holani racked up 50 rushing yards on the Broncos’ opening drive, which quarterback Hank Bachmeier capped with a touchdown pass to Cobbs.
Boise State needs another hot start Friday. The Miners’ offense begins with the running game, but they won’t be able to keep it on the ground if they’re trailing by a couple of touchdowns in the second half. The Broncos need to take some early deep shots maybe some early chances that could result in a sizable halftime lead.
Force some turnovers: Another reason a lead is important is that UTEP tends to abandon its plan and try to catch up by hitting big chunk plays when trailing. That was the case last week against New Mexico. The Miners were down 20-3 by halftime and spent the whole second half airing the ball out in an effort to close the gap. The result was seven turnovers and a 27-10 loss to the Lobos. Boise State beat New Mexico 31-14 on Sept. 9.
The Lobos intercepted four passes, three of which were thrown by UTEP starting quarterback Gavin Hardison, and the Miners lost three fumbles. UTEP has turned the ball over 11 times in its first four games. Boise State forced three turnovers in its season opener at Oregon State, but the Broncos have only one takeaway to their credit the past two weeks.
Keep Bachmeier upright: If there’s one aspect of Boise State’s offense that has carried over from last season, it’s a consistent lack of protection for Bachmeier. He has been sacked seven times in three games and taken plenty of hits that don’t show up on a stat sheet, including a shot to the head that knocked him out of the home opener last weekend.
Bachmeier, like any quarterback, needs time to let plays develop and go through his reads to find open receivers. If he’s constantly having to run for his life, he’s going to make mistakes. Whether it’s calling shorter passing plays to get the ball out of Bachmeier’s hand more quickly or keeping more players in to block, Boise State’s coaches need to find a way to keep his jersey clean Friday.
Key matchups
Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. UTEP RB Ronald Awatt: UTEP’s leading rusher from a year ago, Awatt is on pace to lead the Miners’ ground attack again. The 213-pound redshirt senior is averaging 4.3 yards a carry and leads the team with 225 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
Schramm is a redshirt senior who has been biding his time at Boise State, but he finally got a chance to start this year and he’s making the most of it. He leads the team with 17 tackles, and he’s going to have to be prepared to meet Awatt on Friday.
Boise State CB Tyric LeBeauf vs UTEP WR Tyrin Smith: Smith leads the Miners’ receivers with 27 catches for 437 yards and two touchdowns. He’s undersized (5-7, 170) but runs crisp routes, has blazing speed and can play outside or in the slot.
Boise State is without cornerback Markel Reed, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, and fellow cornerback Caleb Biggers left last week’s game with what looked like an arm injury. If he’s out, it will fall to LeBeauf and redshirt sophomores Kaonohi Kaniho and Jaylen Clark to match up with the Miners’ receivers.
LeBeauf and Kaniho have been competing to be the first cornerback off the bench for the Broncos this season. LeBeauf, who led the team with three interceptions last season, has seen his snaps increase the past two weeks. The redshirt junior broke up a pass and made a couple of nice tackles against UT Martin.
Predictions
Boise State is 6-0 all-time against UTEP. The series dates back to 2000, and the Broncos beat the Miners 54-13 last season at Albertsons Stadium.
The Broncos are a 15-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 45.5 points. Boise State is 15-5 in its past 20 regular season games as a favorite on the road and 9-9-2 against the spread. UTEP is 3-17 in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home and 5-15 ATS.
My pick (2-1 straight up, 2-1 ATS): Boise State’s running game finally got rolling last week, and that’s bad news for the Broncos’ opponents. Holani, who is back to full health after dealing with a nagging hamstring injury last year, touched the ball 33 times against UT Martin. I expect him to be a workhorse again this week and for freshman running back Ashton Jeanty to see his workload increase. Boise State’s defense has been dominant against the run the past two weeks, and it’s going to make UTEP’s offense as one-dimensional as it made New Mexico’s and UT Martin’s. Final score: Boise State 35, UTEP 10
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (1-1 straight up, 0-2 ATS): This is crazy. The Boise State offense just hasn’t run or passed for 200-plus yards in any games. That includes games against New Mexico and UT Martin. That shows the regression here. UTEP’s offense has only been above 200 yards passing games against Oklahoma and that was in garbage time. They scored 13 on North Texas, who is getting thrashed by everyone, 20 against New Mexico State, which should probably go down a level, and 10 against New Mexico. The Miners are also 8-20 against the spread at home and 5-15 as a home underdog. Their offense has regressed with turnovers and poor playing calling. I like Boise State. Final score: Boise State 20, UTEP 7
BOISE STATE AT UTEP
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Sun Bowl Stadium (45,971), El Paso, Texas
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Sherree Burress)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 2-1, UTEP 1-3
Series: Boise State and UTEP have played six times since 2000, and the Broncos are 6-0 in the series. The Miners traveled to Albertsons Stadium last season and lost 54-13.
Vegas line: Boise State by 15
Weather: High of 93 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 6 mph winds
This story was originally published September 22, 2022 at 4:00 AM.
