Keys to victory, betting line, predictions, matchups for Boise State vs. UT Martin
Protecting The Blue is always high on Boise State’s priority list, but the Broncos struggled at home last season.
Boise State lost three straight games at Albertsons Stadium for the first time since 1996 and finished with a 3-3 record at home. The Broncos fell to Oklahoma State, Nevada and Air Force in front of their home fans.
The Broncos get their first chance to defend their home turf this season Saturday against UT Martin (2 p.m., FS1), and they don’t plan to waste it, cornerback Kaonohi Kaniho said.
“We’re ready to see the student section and finally be back on The Blue,” Kaniho told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s the same emphasis as last year. It didn’t go the way we wanted (last year), but we’re just focused on this game.”
Boise State (1-1) opened the season with back-to-back road games, losing at Oregon State and knocking off New Mexico 31-14 last week. UT Martin (1-1) opened the season with a 42-25 home win over Western Illinois and went on the road last week and lost 35-30 at Missouri State.
The Skyhawks compete in the FCS Ohio Valley Conference, but the Broncos said they aren’t going to overlook them. Boise State cornerbacks coach Demario Warren spent the bulk of his career at Southern Utah, which also competes in the FCS, and he has spent this week preparing his players to be tested.
“When you’re at that level, you come up to play these games to prove you can compete,” Warren said. “They’re coming here to prove they can play, and it’s our job to play at our highest level so they can see what that’s like.”
Keys to victory
Keep the sacks coming: After not recording a sack in the season opener at Oregon State, Boise State got to New Mexico’s quarterback six times last week. Boise State needs even more of that against a quarterback who has filled the stat sheet the past two weeks.
UT Martin’s Dresser Winn has thrown for more than 300 yards and tossed three touchdown passes in each of the Skyhawks’ first two games. He has thrown 78 passes in the first two weeks of the season, and UT Martin is sure to throw it around again this week. Weber State transfer George Tarlas and edge rusher Demitri Washington need to get in his face.
Put the ball in Jeanty’s hands: Ashton Jeanty has looked the part of a starting running back since he enrolled early and arrived on campus in January. He proved last week that his chiseled frame isn’t just for looks. The freshman from Jacksonville, Florida, posted 70 rushing yards in the second half of the Broncos’ 31-14 win at New Mexico and finished the game with a team-high 72 yards on 12 carries.
Jeanty is running with more confidence than starter George Holani, who was slowed by injury the past two years. Jeanty has also proved to be reliable in the passing game, especially after running through contact to catch an underthrown 36-yard pass from Taylen Green in the season opener. Boise State needs to get Holani and Jeanty on the field at the same time this weekend, and the Broncos need to lean on the freshman some.
Win with style: There is something to be said for cruising to an easy win and letting the backups handle mop-up duty in the second half. The fans appreciate it, and the backups work hard at practice and deserve some playing time. But I’m not sure subbing in the second team will be in Boise State’s best interest on Saturday. The Broncos are not a particularly confident team right now, especially on offense.
Boise State needs to go out and put on a dominant performance to prove it still belongs among the elites in the Group of Five. More importantly, the Broncos need to experience being on the winning end of a blowout because it will breed confidence that carries over into future games.
That could be especially important when the Broncos have to face San Diego State (Sept. 30), Fresno State (Oct. 8) and Air Force (Oct. 22) in consecutive games. If there was ever a time for offensive coordinator Tim Plough’s unit to put up the half-a-hundred points he promised when hired, it’s this weekend.
Key matchups
Boise State CB Caleb Biggers vs UT Martin WR Colton Dowell: Dowell is firing on all cylinders through the first two weeks of the season. He caught seven passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in the opener against Western Illinois, and he followed that with 10 catches for 159 yards and another score last weekend against Missouri State. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound graduate student is a three-time Ohio Valley Conference selection, and he has 172 career catches for 2,019 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Biggers, who joined the Broncos in 2020 after transferring from Bowling Green, has emerged as Boise State’s top cornerback. He intercepted the first pass of his career against Oregon State, and he posted two tackles for loss last week at New Mexico.
Boise State LB Zeke Noah vs. UT Martin RB Zak Wallace: Wallace opened the season with a career-high 139 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the Skyhawks’ win over Western Illinois. He posted 76 yards and another score last week. The 220-pound redshirt sophomore earned first-team Ohio Valley Conference honors after racking up 807 yards and 15 touchdowns last season.
Noah, a sixth-year senior, opened this season with two of the best games of his career. He tallied seven tackles and forced a fumble at Oregon State and racked up four tackles and 1.5 sacks last week against New Mexico. He’s playing better than ever against the run, and he’s going to have to be on his toes against Wallace this week.
Predictions
Boise State and UT Martin have played just once before. The Broncos hosted the Skyhawks in 2013 and cruised to a 63-14 victory. Boise State will host the Skyhawks again Saturday in what will be just the fourth game the Broncos have played against an FCS opponent since 2010.
The Broncos are a 21-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 52.5 points. Boise State is 15-5 in its past 20 regular season games as a favorite at home and 12-8 against the spread.
My pick (1-1 straight up, 1-1 ATS): This is the week that Boise State’s offense finally performs like everyone thought it would. Holani and Jeanty are going to feast on the Skyhawks’ defense, quarterback Hank Bachmeier is going to throw for more than 300 yards and a wide receiver — probably Stefan Cobbs or Latrell Caples — will crack the 100-yard mark for the first time this season. UT Martin has a passing game that will test the Broncos, but Boise State cruises to an easy win before hitting the road to face UTEP next week. Final score: Boise State 56, UT Martin 14
UT MARTIN AT BOISE STATE
When: 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Albertsons Stadium (35,944, turf)
TV: Fox Sports 1 (Alex Faust, Petros Papadakis)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 1-1, UT Martin 1-1
Series: Saturday’s game marks just the second meeting between Boise State and UT Martin. The Broncos previously defeated the Skyhawks 63-14 at Albertsons Stadium in 2013.
Vegas line: Boise State by 21
Weather: High of 75 degrees, 15% chance of rain, 9 mph winds
