Keys to victory, betting line, predictions for Boise State’s game at No. 25 Fresno State
The Boise State football team hasn’t played at Fresno State since 2017, but the Broncos’ game in Bulldog Stadium on Saturday at 5 p.m. will be a reunion of sorts.
Three of No. 25 Fresno State’s full-time assistant coaches are former Boise State players: running backs coach Lee Marks, wide receivers coach Kirby Moore and recruiting coordinator Julius Brown. Offensive graduate assistant Taylor Pope also played for the Broncos.
“Those guys are awesome,” Boise State football coach Andy Avalos said. “In this profession, a lot of guys from Boise State have gotten into it, so you run into guys throughout the season that maybe you played with or coached with on various teams. They’ve done a tremendous job, and they’re great men and great coaches.”
Marks (2001-05) and Brown (2000-03) were teammates with Avalos who both coached at Boise State before joining the staff at Fresno.
Brown joined the Broncos as a graduate assistant in 2006 and was the director of player personnel from 2009 to 2011. He joined the staff at Fresno State last year.
Marks joined the staff at Boise State as an assistant strength coach in 2014. He was promoted to running backs coach the following year and added the title of director of special teams in 2019. He left to coach running backs at Fresno State after that season. He also carries the title of assistant head coach and run game coordinator for the Bulldogs.
Moore, the brother of former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore, was a wide receiver for the Broncos, 2009-13. He was teammates with current BSU wide receivers coach Matt Miller, and the two are still close. Miller said he has even met Moore’s first child, Sutton, but their friendship will be put on hold for a few hours on Saturday.
“It’s one of those things where I hope his receivers do well and I hope my receivers do well,” Miller said. “But at the end of the day, I hope the Broncos do better than the Bulldogs.”
Boise State’s players will also line up against a former Bronco on Saturday.
Linebacker Tyson Maeva played at Boise State from 2016 to 2018, finishing second on the team with 61 tackles that last season. He was dismissed from the team following an incident at the 2018 First Responders Bowl and then spent two seasons at Florida International University. He took advantage of the extra year of eligibility the NCAA offered because of the COVID-19 pandemic to play his final season at Fresno State, where he’s second on the team with 41 tackles.
“It’s always fun to play against family,” said Boise State linebacker Ezekiel Noa, who is Maeva’s cousin. “It’s great to see him still grow and still playing.”
Maeva was asked about facing his former team earlier this week.
“I’ve got a bunch of guys over there and a lot of familiar faces,” Maeva said. “I’ve got family over there, too, but once we step on the field, it’s back to Bulldogs and Broncos.”
Keys to victory
Give Holani the ball: Boise State running back George Holani was back on the field in a limited capacity at Colorado State last week after missing the previous two games with a hamstring injury. Every time he touched the ball, fans of the Broncos were reminded what they’ve missed the past two seasons. Holani has missed three games this fall and was on a snap count for two. He played in just one full game last season before suffering a knee injury. The Broncos need him on the field. He’s just a more explosive, twitchy, instinctual runner than anyone else in the backfield.
Holani is a next-level athlete, and the Broncos’ offense just isn’t the same when he’s not carrying the ball. Whether he’s running it or catching a pass out of the backfield, he needs to touch the ball at least 20 times if Boise State is going to upset Fresno on the road in front of a sellout crowd.
No turnovers: Boise State has turned the ball over just twice in its past three games, and both were in a loss to Air Force. The Broncos didn’t commit a turnover in wins at BYU and at Colorado State, and that trend needs to continue. They’ve coughed up the ball 10 times this season (5 interceptions, 5 fumbles), and they can’t afford to give it away against a team that has the kind of offensive firepower the Bulldogs possess. Fresno State is averaging 35 points per game.
Get in Haener’s face: There’s no denying Fresno State’s Jake Haener is one of the most talented quarterbacks Boise State will face this season. He leads the Mountain West with 2,888 passing yards and is No. 2 in completions (344), touchdown passes (23), passing yards per game (320.9) and passer efficiency rating (156). Haener has shown a willingness to hang in the pocket and deliver accurate passes in the face of a furious pass rush. He isn’t particularly mobile, though, and the Broncos need to use that to their advantage.
Blitzing a skilled quarterback is a risk because it leaves defensive backs in one-on-one matchups, but Boise State has to get in his face and apply pressure, forcing him to scramble and make decisions on the run. Even the best quarterbacks are less accurate when they throw on the run, and the dirtier Haener’s jersey is at the end of the game, the more likely the Broncos are to leave Fresno with a win.
Key matchups
Boise State CB Caleb Biggers vs Fresno State WR Jalen Cropper: Among Haener’s lengthy list of offensive weapons is junior wide receiver Jalen Cropper, who leads the Mountain West with 10 receiving touchdowns. He leads the Bulldogs and ranks No. 3 in the conference with 61 catches, and his 664 receiving yards rank No. 4 in the conference. Cropper has caught at least four passes in all but one game this season and he hauled in at least 10 passes and racked up more than 100 receiving yards twice, including 14 catches for 141 yards in Fresno State’s win over UCLA.
Boise State has faced some attrition at cornerback this fall. Markel Reed is out for the season, and fellow starter Tyric LeBeauf has missed the past three games for undisclosed reasons. The Broncos are also without top backup Damon Cole. They’ve turned to Bowling Green transfer Caleb Biggers and redshirt freshman Kaonohi Kaniho in recent weeks, and they’re likely to be tasked with shutting down Fresno State’s impressive passing game on Saturday.
Boise State’s linebackers vs Fresno State’s running backs: The Bulldogs have a two-headed monster in the backfield in running backs Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims. Both are fifth-year seniors and both have rushed for more than 500 yards this season. Rivers leads the team with 573 yards on the ground and averages 4.9 yards per carry. Mims has posted 504 yards and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. Rivers missed Fresno State’s win over San Diego State last weekend because of an injury, but Mims didn’t miss a beat, racking up 186 yards and two touchdowns.
This might be the best backfield duo Boise State faces this season, and the Broncos’ linebackers are going to have to be on their toes. That shouldn’t be an issue, given the experience Boise State has at the position, but the linebackers haven’t been themselves this fall.
Fifth-year senior Riley Whimpey is second on the team with 51 tackles, but he was limited to just two at Colorado State last week. Fellow fifth-year senior Noa is third on the team with 47, but like Whimpey, he has struggled with missed tackles. Redshirt junior DJ Schramm has seen the most playing time of his career this fall and posted 20 tackles in eight appearances.
Predictions
Boise State is 15-7 all-time against Fresno State, but the teams haven’t played since the 2018 Mountain West championship game, which the Bulldogs won in overtime by a field goal. They last met in Fresno in 2017 in a game the Bulldogs won 28-17. Since then, the Broncos have won 13 consecutive road games against conference teams.
Boise State is 16-21 all-time against ranked opponents, including a win over then-No. 10 BYU earlier this season. No. 25 Fresno State is a five-point favorite on Saturday, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 60 points. The Bulldogs are 16-4 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 10-10 against the spread.
The Broncos are 6-14 in their past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 13-6-1 ATS.
My pick (4-4 straight up, 4-4 ATS): For the second week in a row, Boise State is playing for its postseason life. The Broncos are two wins shy of qualifying for a bowl game and three wins from guaranteeing an invite to one, and they’re going to have to beat Fresno State or San Diego State on the road to get to seven wins. That desperation paid off for Boise State last week at Colorado State, and it makes the Broncos a dangerous team again this weekend. The difference this week is that the best offense in the Mountain West is on the other side of the field.
Boise State is going to struggle to contain Haener and those running backs. The Broncos are going to struggle to contain Cropper at wide receiver as well, and he’s one of the top deep threats the conference. So Fresno State is going to score points. The question is whether Boise State can keep up? If RB Holani is healthy enough to get 20 touches, I think it can. But we haven’t seen that this season and we haven’t seen the Broncos’ defense shut many teams down. Boise State keeps it close, but Fresno State wins it — making the Broncos’ regular-season finale at San Diego State a monumental game. Final score: Fresno State 45, Boise State 31
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (6-2 straight up, 4-4 ATS): The underdog has covered six straight in this series. Boise State has also won three or four games on the road this year. Fresno (State) was gearing up for that game last week to knock off undefeated San Diego State. They got that, but I love Boise on the road here. I think they’re going to win this game and cover. Final score: Boise State 31, Fresno State 28
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
‘He’s always ready’: Safety steps up as Boise State tries to clean up targeting calls
Ask a Fresno State writer: Another top-end QB, high-powered offense up next for Broncos
Boise State’s Avalos has history with Fresno State; revolving door continues at center
Idaho ties in the NFL: Wilson makes case for best catch, pass in Cowboys’ big win
BOISE STATE AT NO. 25 FRESNO STATE
When: 5 p.m. Mountain time Saturday
Where: Bulldog Stadium (40,727, grass), Fresno, California
TV: CBS Sports Network (John Sadak, Aaron Murray, Lindsay Rhodes)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 4-4, 2-2 MW; Fresno State 7-2, 4-1 MW
Series: Boise State is 15-7 against Fresno State, but the teams haven’t played since the 2018 Mountain West championship game, which the Bulldogs won 19-16 in overtime.
Vegas line: Fresno State by 5
Weather: High of 71 degrees, 8% chance of rain, 6 mph winds
This story was originally published November 4, 2021 at 3:47 PM.
