Keys to victory, betting line and predictions for Boise State’s game at Colorado State
Boise State’s game at Colorado State will feature not only a pair of teams trying to get back in the win column on Saturday, but also a couple of coaching staffs trying to make up for embarrassing blunders.
A third home loss of the season was detrimental enough for the Broncos two weeks ago against Air Force, but a blown opportunity to tie the game late in the third quarter will haunt the coaches for quite some time.
The Broncos drove to Air Force’s 2-yard line but were stopped on fourth down. Part of why Boise State failed to score on that play could have been that it had only 10 players on the field.
Boise State coach Andy Avalos took ownership of the mistake after the game and reiterated that stance on Monday.
“It comes down to us doing a better job communicating as a coaching staff,” he said. “It’s on me, and I’ve got to do a better job with that.”
Colorado State’s blunder in a loss to Utah State last week might have been even more egregious. The Rams missed a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds of the 26-24 loss after rushing the field goal unit onto the field instead of spiking the ball to stop the clock — after it had temporarily stopped following a first-down conversion.
Colorado State coach Steve Addazio shouldered the blame on Monday.
“It’s my responsibility that (the) operation is controlled properly,” he said. “That’s on me, directly on me. I’ve got to have the foresight to anticipate in those pressure situations, and things can happen and you’ve got to have constraints in place.”
Neither coaching staff can afford a similar blunder in Saturday’s game in Fort Collins, Colorado (5 p.m., CBSSN). The Rams need a win to stay in contention for a Mountain West title. The Broncos need a win to get back in the race.
Keys to victory
Protect Bachmeier: The Broncos will face one of the best pass-rushing teams in the country on Saturday. Colorado State leads the Mountain West and ranks No. 2 in the country with 30 sacks this season. That’s not good news for Boise State because the Broncos have given up 16 sacks, which is tied with San Jose State for the sixth-most in the conference, and quarterback Hank Bachmeier has taken more hits than he can count.
Boise State hasn’t had much consistency on the offensive line this fall. Center Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez hasn’t played a snap, guards Jake Stetz and Garrett Curran have missed time with injuries, and left tackle John Ojukwu is the only lineman who has started all seven games in the same position.
Bachmeier has played behind the same starting five since Texas Tech transfer Will Farrar stepped in at center, Ben Dooley bumped inside to right guard and Rice transfer Uzo Osuji replaced him at right tackle in a loss to Nevada. That consistency has helped, but with Miami transfer Scott Patchan (seven sacks) coming off the edge for the Rams, Boise State’s offensive linemen are going to have to be on their toes.
Take McBride out of the equation: Colorado State quarterback Todd Centeio has made no secret about who his favorite target is in the passing game this fall. Tight end Trey McBride leads the team and ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 55 catches in seven games. The Rams’ next-leading receiver is wide receiver Dante Wright, who has 15 receptions to his credit. That’s due, in part, to Wright missing three games because of injuries, but that doesn’t change the fact that Centeio is going to look for McBride almost every time Colorado State needs to move the chains on third down.
At 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds, McBride is too big for most defensive backs to defend and too athletic for most linebackers to cover him, but if Boise State is going to win this game, it has to find a way to take him away. Whether they’re assigning two players to cover him or shading a safety to whatever side of the field McBride is on, the Broncos have to make Centeio look for someone else.
Test the Rams’ secondary: Colorado State’s defensive front seven is among the best in the conference, but the weakness of the Rams’ defense is a secondary that has produced just four of the team’s five interceptions this season. The Rams are giving up only 194.1 passing yards a game, which ranks No. 3 in the Mountain West, but a lot of that is thanks to the front seven putting so much pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Colorado State isn’t likely to have a defensive back who can run with Boise State wide receivers Khalil Shakir and Stefan Cobbs. There aren’t many defenders who have shown they can run with Shakir this year. He leads the Broncos with 40 catches and ranks No. 3 in the conference with 659 receiving yards. As much as the Broncos’ coaches want to run the ball, they will need to go to the air and feed Shakir early and often on Saturday.
Key matchups
Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier vs. Colorado State’s linebackers: Colorado State’s defense is led by a deep group on the defensive line, but there are some very active linebackers playing behind the big men in the trenches. Senior Dequan Jackson leads the Rams with 66 tackles. Fellow senior Cam’Ron Carter is No. 2 on the team with 50 tackles and No. 3 with five sacks, and junior Mohamed Kamara is No. 2 with six sacks this season. Bachmeier is going to have to be on point with his presnap protection calls on Saturday, and he’s going to have to worry about where those linebackers are before every play.
Boise State LB Ezekiel Noa vs. Colorado State RB David Bailey: The Broncos are not only going to face one of the Mountain West’s top rushing attacks on Saturday. They’re also going to have to contend with one of the most physical running backs in the conference. David Bailey — who followed Colorado State head coach Steve Addazio from Boston College — is a 240-pound senior, who is averaging 4.1 yards per carry while leading the team with 478 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He has carried the ball 30 times in a game twice this season, including during the Rams’ loss to Utah State, so the Broncos are sure to see plenty of him on Saturday. He’s not easy to bring down, but Noa and fellow Boise State linebacker Riley Whimpey are going to have to match his physicality if Boise State is going to slow him down.
“We know he’s a power back,” Noa said. “We’ve got to be ready and we’ve got to be physical up front, and that includes hitting the running backs, whoever is back there.”
Predictions
Boise State has never lost to Colorado State, and the Broncos have won 10 straight against the Rams since their series began in 2011. The Broncos have also won 12 consecutive road games against teams from the Mountain West. Their last conference loss on the road was against Fresno State in 2017.
Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 51.5 points. The Broncos are 15-5 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite on the road and 10-9-1 against the spread. Colorado State is 5-15 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home and 9-10-1 ATS.
My pick (3-4 straight up, 3-4 ATS): This is an absolute must-win game if Boise State has any hope of getting back in the race for a Mountain West championship. A loss to Colorado State could also make qualifying for a bowl game a difficult task for the Broncos, who still have to go on the road to play Fresno State and No. 21 San Diego State. This isn’t a great matchup for Boise State on paper. Colorado State excels at running the ball and rushing the passer. The Broncos have struggled to defend the run and protect quarterback Hank Bachmeier this season. But this is a Boise State team that is desperate to get back in the win column, and Colorado State’s secondary is suspect enough that this could be a big game for the Broncos’ passing attack. I think Bachmeier throws the ball at least 40 times and wide receiver Khalil Shakir has a big enough day to lead the Broncos to a close win. Final score: Boise State 35, Colorado State 28
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (5-2 straight up, 3-4 ATS): What happened last week at the end of the (Colorado State) game was absolute bedlam. How that coaching staff didn’t have that special teams unit next to them, how they didn’t know they couldn’t spike the ball; they’re running on the field, players are running off, they missed the field goal. That is a huge stain for coaches of Colorado State. They even had one defensive tackle jump offsides four times. I just don’t like the discipline here. I think that might be the difference. Sometimes something like that happens and it spirals out of control. One of their cornerbacks keeps getting burned on takeoff patterns. He doesn’t learn. They don’t make changes. Their special teams aren’t special. I think Boise (State) is going to do the little things. I think they win the game. Final score: Boise State 24, Colorado State 20
THIS WEEK’S COVERAGE
Ask a Colorado State writer: Physical running game, ‘attacking’ defense await Boise State
Coaches address Boise State QB roles. Bachmeier diplomatic, thanks first responders
Idaho ties in the NFL: Former Boise State defensive lineman makes regular-season debut
Midseason report card: Boise State is off to a historically slow start to the season
BOISE STATE AT COLORADO STATE
When: 5 p.m. Saturday
Where: Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, Colorado
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Jenny Dell). That’s channel 139 on Sparklight, 221 on DirecTV and 158 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 3-4, 1-2; Colorado State 3-4, 2-1.
Series: Boise State is 10-0 all-time against Colorado State, including a 52-21 win at Albertsons Stadium last season.
Vegas line: Boise State by 2.5
Weather: High of 69 degrees, 13% chance of rain, 11 mph winds
This story was originally published October 28, 2021 at 3:14 PM.
