Keys to victory, betting line and prediction for Boise State’s season opener at UCF
The Boise State football team has some experience in hot, humid season openers east of the Mississippi River.
The Broncos have done it three times since 2016, and they’ve won all three. They opened the 2016 season with a trip to Lafayette, Louisiana, and a 45-10 victory. In 2018, they made the trek to Troy, Alabama, and beat the Trojans, 56-20.
Boise State opened the 2019 season with one of its biggest wins in recent memory. The Broncos were expecting to play in Jacksonville, Florida, but Hurricane Dorian forced the game to be relocated to Florida State’s Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Despite the craziness before the game and a halftime deficit, Boise State rallied to win, 36-31.
It’s going to be hot and humid in this season’s opener Thursday at UCF (5 p.m. MT, ESPN), but the Broncos’ roster is full of players who took the field for at least two of those previous openers in the Southeast. They plan to lean on that experience, especially because Boise State hasn’t played in front of a large crowd since the 2019 Las Vegas Bowl, and the Bounce House seats more than 45,000 fans.
“I think that’s going to be a huge benefit for us,” Boise State linebacker Riley Whimpey said. “Having those older guys who understand what it’s like to play in front of a full stadium is huge because it truly is different.”
The win over Florida State was not only a statement game against a Power Five opponent. It was also a breakout game for two players the Broncos will lean on heavily again this year: quarterback Hank Bachmeier and wide receiver Khalil Shakir.
“You leave that game knowing these guys are going to be nightmares to go against if you’re a defense in our conference or around the country for a time to come, and they’ve lived up to that,” said Boise State co-defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson, who was the defensive line coach in 2019.
The Broncos trailed 31-19 at halftime, but Bachmeier — playing in the first college football game of his career — led a third-quarter scoring drive that cut Florida State’s lead to five, and former Boise State running back Robert Mahone scored the go-ahead touchdown early in the fourth.
Bachmeier finished the game 30-of-51 for 407 yards, a touchdown and an interception — and left a lasting impression on his teammates.
“He’s going to go out there and give it his all, no matter what,” Shakir said. “He took a couple hits that game as well, and he always got right back up. When you have somebody like that leading the offense, it’s tough not to give it your all.”
Bachmeier’s third-quarter touchdown pass went to Shakir on a third-down play from Florida State’s 11-yard line. Shakir, then a sophomore, finished the game with eight catches for 78 yards. He went on to lead Boise State with 63 receptions that season.
“When it comes down to it, we’re going to have to execute every single play like that,” Shakir said.
Keys to victory
Run the ball: What’s the best way to control a high-powered offense? Keep it on the sideline. To do that, the Broncos are going to have to run the ball much better than they did last season and eat up the game clock with some long drives. It may not be the most exciting brand of football, but a “three yards and a cloud of dust” mentality will limit UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s chances to go deep to one of his many speedy receivers.
Boise State struggled last fall with running back George Holani out for most of the season, but he’s back and he’ll have some help. The Broncos added Oregon transfer Cyrus Habibi-likio this summer, junior college transfer Taequan Tyler is back from an Achilles injury and 240-pound bruiser Andrew Van Buren is back after leading the Mountain West last year with eight rushing touchdowns.
Take a shot early: Boise State hasn’t played in front of a large crowd in almost two years. The Broncos are going to step into a raucous environment Thursday in the Bounce House, and they’re opening the season on ESPN in a game that very well could have postseason implications. The winner will immediately be inserted into the discussion for the Group of Five’s bid to a New Year’s Six bowl game.
There’s a lot riding on this game. UCF fans know that, and they’re going to show no mercy. So the Broncos need to take them out of the game early. The coaches need to take some chances in the first half. Whether it’s with deep passes, trick plays or a big play on special teams, Boise State needs to take the energy out of the crowd early.
Make Gabriel uncomfortable: If there’s one thing Boise State’s defense can’t do, it’s let Gabriel sit in the pocket. He has the arm and the weapons on offense to pick them apart, so the Broncos are going to have to get pressure in his face, mix up where that pressure is coming from and disguise coverage in the secondary in the hopes of capitalizing on a mistake.
There is risk that comes with blitzing an athletic quarterback like Gabriel. He can take off and burn teams with his legs, but the Broncos have to do something to force him to throw on the run. There aren’t many passers who are as accurate on the move as when their feet are set.
Key matchups
Boise State’s new starters at CB vs. UCF’s passing attack: UCF ranked No. 4 in the country last season with 357.4 passing yards a game. The Knights have a Heisman candidate at quarterback and plenty of speed at wide receiver again this year. This isn’t the time to be breaking in two new starters at cornerback, but that’s the position Boise State finds itself in.
Markel Reed and Tyric LeBeauf are expected to get the start. It will be career start No. 2 for Reed, who spent the past couple seasons as the top backup for former starters Avery Williams and Jalen Walker. It will be LeBeauf’s first start after he nabbed his first career interception during mop-up duty in last year’s season opener against Utah State.
UCF lost three receivers to the NFL this year, but Jaylon Robinson is back after finishing second on the team with 55 catches and 979 yards last fall. Ryan O’Keefe also returns after appearing in 10 games last season, and he’s one of the fastest players on the team.
The Knights also have plenty of transfer wide receivers hitting the field this year, including Dionte Marks (Florida), Jordan Johnson (Notre Dame), Nate Craig-Myers (Auburn/Colorado State) and Brandon Johnson (Tennessee). Marks is eligible after he sat out last year. The rest are immediately eligible because they’re graduate transfers or thanks to the NCAA’s one-time transfer rule.
Boise State’s offensive tackles vs. UCF DE Big Kat Bryant: UCF’s defense was just plain bad last year. It ranked No. 123 nationally in total defense. The Knights have some players back that opted out last year because of COVID-19, but the team also added a big-time transfer in former Auburn defensive end Big Kat Bryant.
Bryant was a two-year starter at Auburn and earned second-team All-SEC honors last season after he tied for third on the team with three sacks. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound native of Cordele, Georgia, racked up 56 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and two interceptions in four seasons with the Tigers.
Boise State left tackle John Ojukwu is heading into his fourth season as a starter, and the Broncos are expecting to break in a new starter at right tackle in redshirt sophomore Ben Dooley. Both will be backed up by Rice transfer Uzo Osuji. Auburn is sure to move Bryant around the formation, so both tackles are going to have to be ready, and it might be a good idea for the coaches to shift a little extra protection to whatever side he’s on.
Predictions
Boise State heads into the season opener as a 5.5-point underdog, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 68.5 points. The Broncos are 7-13 in their past 20 games as an underdog on the road, and they’re 13-6-1 against the spread. Boise State was a 6.5-point underdog in its 2019 season opener at Florida State.
UCF is 19-1 in its past 20 games as a favorite at home and 10-10 ATS.
My pick: Boise State has enough veterans on the roster to keep the crowd, the weather or the big stage that comes with a prime-time game from becoming too much of an issue. The much bigger issue will be containing UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel and his seemingly unlimited supply of speedy weapons on offense. Starting two new cornerbacks against this offense is a concern, and if the Broncos’ defensive front can’t create some pressure on Gabriel, it’s going to be a long day for the visitors. If Boise State can run the ball and control the clock, the Broncos have a chance. But I don’t think they can win a track meet against UCF. Final score: UCF 35, Boise State 21
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
BOISE STATE AT UCF
When: 5 p.m. Mountain on Thursday
Where: Bounce House, Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN (Matt Barrie, Rodd Jones, Harry Lyles Jr.). That’s channel 133 on Sparklight, 206 on DirecTV and 140 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Series: This is the first game between the programs.
Vegas line: UCF by 5.5
Weather: 75 degrees at game time, 24% chance of rain, 9 mph winds
This story was originally published August 31, 2021 at 12:12 PM.
