Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for Boise State’s road game at Wyoming
The Boise State football team’s regular-season finale at Wyoming on Saturday (4 p.m., CBSSN) is shaping up to be about as pleasant as a game can be in December in Laramie, Wyoming.
The temperature in Laramie isn’t expected to climb above 25 degrees, with a low of 1 degree, and of course there’s snow in the forecast. There’s a 60% chance of snow Saturday evening, adding to what could already be a challenging day thanks to the frigid temperatures.
On top of the cold and snow, wind gusts are expected to reach about 15 mph, and the Broncos will have to deal with playing at a much higher elevation than they’re used to.
Wyoming’s War Memorial Stadium is at 7,220 feet above sea level, which makes it the highest major college football stadium in the country.
The Broncos already experienced the second-highest stadium in the country at Air Force’s Falcon Stadium, which stands at 6,621 feet, and they say the elements won’t slow them down Saturday.
“At the end of the day, my adrenaline is going to be flowing and I’m not going to be thinking about the cold,” said defensive tackle Jackson Cravens, who is expected to see his first action since the Broncos’ loss to BYU on Nov. 6.
The Broncos can’t afford to let a little snow and elevation slow them down with a spot in the Mountain West championship game on the line.
A lot could be decided Friday when, or if, title contenders San Jose State and Nevada square off. The Broncos have the edge over both teams when it comes to tiebreakers, but they don’t want to leave their fate in the hands of computer rankings.
The message this week has been simple. Win and you’re in.
Keys to victory
Win the war in the trenches: If there’s one thing for sure, it’s that Wyoming is going to run the ball. Even without starter Xazavian Valladay last week against New Mexico, backup Trey Smith carried the ball 24 times for 154 yards. Boise State’s defensive front seven is going to have its hands full Saturday against the No. 2 rushing attack in the Mountain West, which averages 247 yards a game. The Broncos should have linebacker Ezekiel Noa back on the field, according to defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding, and Saturday’s game may come down to how well he and fellow linebacker Riley Whimpey read their keys and attack the Cowboys’ running backs.
Start fast, stay fast: The best way to knock off the rust from not playing a game in 21 days is to take some early chances and hopefully hit on a big play or two to build some momentum and maybe even a comfortable lead heading into halftime. Once they build that lead, the Broncos can’t have a second-half letdown, especially in the cold against a team that can control the game with its physical running game.
Aside from its loss to BYU, Boise State has dominated the first half of games this season. The Broncos have outscored their opponents 120-43 before halftime, but that hasn’t been the case in the second half. They’ve given up at least 13 points after halftime in every game this season.
Get John Bates involved: Boise State tight end John Bates caught a career-high five passes in each of the Broncos’ first two games of the season, but he has only caught two since then and has gone without a reception in the past two games.
Bates suffered a hamstring injury against BYU that has hampered him the past few weeks. He appeared in the Broncos’ wins over Colorado State and Hawaii, but mostly as a blocker. Bates is healthy now, and the Broncos need to get him involved this weekend, especially in the red zone, where they’ve scored touchdowns on 15-of-16 trips this season.
Key matchups
Wyoming RBs Xazavian Valladay/Trey Smith vs. Boise State LBs Riley Whimpey/Ezekiel Noa: Valladay led the Mountain West last season with 1,265 rushing yards. He’s a downhill runner who doesn’t shy away from contact, and even if he isn’t completely healthy, he has the ability to break a long touchdown run. Wyoming coach Craig Bohl said Monday that he expects Valladay to play Saturday after not suiting up against New Mexico, but he wasn’t sure how much he will play. The backup, Trey Smith, transferred from Louisville after playing three seasons for the Cardinals. He’s the more shifty of the two backs, and he has carried the ball 77 times for 446 yards and five touchdowns this season. Valladay has 421 yards and three touchdowns on 84 carries.
Wyoming’s offensive line vs. Boise State’s defensive line: Wyoming is big and experienced up front. The Cowboys returned eight offensive linemen who started games last fall, led by center Keegan Cryder, who was a second-team All-Mountain West pick last year. The smallest starter is left tackle Latrell Bible, who checks in at 6-foot-4 and 295 pounds. He lines up next to guard Eric Abojei, who is 6-5 and tips the scale at 350 pounds.
Boise State’s defensive line has been hit with injuries and COVID-19 cases this fall. Defensive tackles Keeghan Freeborn and Herbert Gums, defensive end Demitri Washington and STUD Sam Whitney were lost for the season to injuries, and nose tackle Scale Igiehon and defensive tackle Jackson Cravens have missed time. Junior college transfers Shane Irwin and Divine Obichere and Idaho native Scott Matlock have taken the majority of the snaps, but they should get some help this weekend with Cravens and Igiehon expected to play.
Predictions
Boise State is an 11.5-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 47 total points. The Broncos are 15-5 in their past 20 regular-season games as the favorite on the road, and they’re 11-8-1 against the spread (ATS).
Wyoming is 9-11 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home and 11-9 ATS.
My pick (5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS): The Broncos know they’re playing for a chance to lock up a spot in the Mountain West championship game. They’re motivated and well rested after not playing the past two weeks. Wyoming will gets its yards on the ground, but the Cowboys are too one-dimensional to score enough points to hang with Boise State. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier and wide receiver Khalil Shakir have big days and Boise State wins in impressive fashion. Boise State 35, Wyoming 14
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (5-0 straight up, 4-1 ATS): “(Boise State was) unbeaten in the Mountain West last year. They’d love a second straight unbeaten conference season. As long as they get back enough guys, I think they’re going to have enough here. They’ll control the line of scrimmage and maybe hit on some big plays, and maybe special teams is the difference also.” Boise State 37, Wyoming 13
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
BOISE STATE AT WYOMING
When: 4 p.m. Saturday
Where: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyoming
TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Murray, AJ Ross). That’s channel 139 on Sparklight, 221 on DirecTV and 158 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 4-1, 4-0 Mountain West; Wyoming 2-3, 2-3
Series: Boise State leads 13-1 (last meeting: Boise State won 20-17 in overtime last season in Boise).
Vegas line: Boise State by 11.5
Weather: High of 25 degrees, 60% chance of snow, 14 mph winds
This story was originally published December 11, 2020 at 4:00 AM.
