Keys to victory, matchups and predictions for Boise State football’s home game vs. BYU
There have been plenty of memorable games in the Boise State football team’s rivalry with BYU, but few stand out more to the players than the Cougars’ most recent visit to Albertsons Stadium, which came in 2018.
Trailing 21-16, with time winding down, BYU drove to the Broncos’ 2-yard line and had a chance to notch its first win in the series on The Blue. But former Boise State linebacker Tyson Maeva and current nose tackle Scale Igiehon combined on a sack of Cougars quarterback Zach Wilson as time expired to preserve the five-point win.
Boise State linebacker Riley Whimpey was on the sideline watching the play after he tore an ACL earlier in the fourth quarter, and all he wanted to do was celebrate with his teammates.
“I honestly just wanted to run out on the field,” Whimpey said. “I couldn’t, but I was so pumped for our team to be able to execute and get that done.”
Wilson leads No. 9 BYU (7-0) against No. 21 Boise State (2-0) on Friday (7:55 p.m., FS1), and the Cougars are still in search of their first win over the Broncos at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State is 5-0 in the series at home, but this year’s game looks like one of the biggest in the history of the rivalry. It marks the first time Boise State and BYU have played when both are ranked, and the first time the Broncos have hosted a top-10 opponent.
Utah State was No. 14 when it visited in 2018, and Fresno State was No. 16 when it came to town that year. Oregon was ranked No. 16 when the Ducks played in Albertsons Stadium in 2009.
Boise State won all three of those games. The Broncos are 5-3 at home against ranked opponents and 15-18 all-time regardless of location.
The Broncos are 5-2 against opponents ranked in the top 10, and they won their last four such games: No. 7 Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl (43-42, OT), No. 4 TCU in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl (17-10), No. 10 Virginia Tech in 2010 (33-30) and No. 10 Arizona in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl (38-30).
Keys to victory
Watch out for trick plays: In a 28-25 win over Boise State last season in Provo, BYU outscored the Broncos 21-0 in the third quarter, and two of those touchdowns were scored on trick plays.
Third-string quarterback Baylor Romney — filling in for an injured Wilson — faked a fumbled snap on fourth-and-1, which froze safety Tyreque Jones long enough to allow tight end Matt Bushman to sneak by him for a 27-yard touchdown.
On their next drive, the Cougars confused the defense with a flea flicker and Romney hit Bushman on a 39-yard score, which gave BYU a 28-10 lead. The Broncos have to be ready for anything on Friday.
Take Wilson’s favorite target away: Wide receiver Dax Milne leads BYU this season with 42 catches for 706 yards. He has caught almost twice as many passes as the Cougars’ next-leading receiver, tight end Gunner Romney (26 catches, 515 yards), and hauled in six of Wilson’s 19 touchdown passes.
The Broncos need to take Milne out of the equation on Friday and force Wilson to go through his progression and find his second and third options.
Finish drives with touchdowns: One of the most impressive stats to come out of Boise State’s first two games of the season is the Broncos have yet to attempt a field goal. Out of 22 total drives, 13 have ended with touchdowns.
That trend needs to continue on Friday, especially against a top-10 team led by a quarterback who many believe will be a first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
No matter who starts at quarterback, or whether it’s George Holani or Andrew Van Buren getting the bulk of the carries, the Broncos need to keep the kickers on the sideline, except when it’s time for an extra point. Holani left last weekend’s game at Air Force with an apparent leg injury.
Key matchups
Boise State WR Khalil Shakir vs. BYU S Zayne Anderson: Shakir is the most versatile offensive weapon the Broncos have. He leads the team with 13 catches for 213 yards, he’s tied with CT Thomas with a team-high two touchdown catches, and he’s carried the ball five times in two games.
Last fall, he totaled 10 touchdowns: six receiving, three rushing and one passing. He’s going to touch the ball in a multitude of ways every week, and Anderson leads a secondary that has the arduous task of trying to keep track of him on Friday.
Boise State STUD Sam Whitney vs BYU QB Zach Wilson: Wilson is a threat to beat teams with his arm and his legs, but like most quarterbacks, he struggles when he’s pressured into making quick decisions.
Whitney has to be careful not to be overly aggressive and give Wilson wide-open running lanes, but he has to get into the backfield and not allow the Cougars’ quarterback to feel comfortable in the pocket.
That may be a little more difficult after the Broncos lost defensive end Demitri Washington for the season with a scary-looking injury last weekend at Air Force, but his replacement, junior college transfer Shane Irwin, recorded his first sack as a Bronco in the season opener and finished second on the team with eight tackles last weekend.
Predictions
The Broncos find themselves in unfamiliar territory as an underdog in Albertsons Stadium. The last time that happened was Nov. 9, 2018, when they hosted No. 16 Fresno State in a game they won, 24-17. Since 1997, Boise State is 4-3 overall and 6-1 against the spread as a home underdog.
Friday’s game will mark the third time Boise State has been an underdog at home in the regular season since a game in 2001 against Washington State. The Broncos lost that one, 42-20.
BYU is a 3.5-point favorite on Friday, according to Las Vegas, with an over/under of 61 total points. The Cougars are 9-1 overall and 6-3-1 ATS in their past 10 games as the favorite.
My pick (2-0 straight up, 2-0 ATS): Zach Wilson may be the best quarterback Boise State faces all season, and BYU’s defense may be the stingiest the Broncos clash with this fall. There’s no word on whether quarterback Hank Bachmeier, running back George Holani, nose tackle Sacle Igiehon or safety JL Skinner are going to play, and that many question marks doesn’t bode well for the Broncos heading into a game against their most bitter rival — not to mention a top-10 team. Boise State has enough weapons on offense to score some points, but the defense is going to struggle to contain Wilson. BYU 28, Boise State 24
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (1-0 straight up, 1-0 ATS): On Zach Wilson: “I just think this kid is an NFL quarterback. I think he gets it. I think he has the x factor.”
On BYU having played seven games: “I don’t know if I‘ve seven seen this before, playing another team that has only played two games and against two powder puffs. I think it’s an advantage... BYU also has the No. 11 run (defense), and think it’s the difference. Tight game, but I like BYU.” BYU 35, Boise State 31
Ron Counts is the Idaho Statesman’s Boise State football beat writer. Contact him at rcounts@idahostatesman.com and follow @Ron_BroncoBeat on Twitter.
NO. 9 BYU AT NO. 21 BOISE STATE
When: 7:55 p.m. Friday
Where: Albertsons Stadium
TV: Fox Sports 1 (Aaron Goldsmith, Petros Papadakis). That’s channel 146 on Sparklight, 219 on DirecTV and 150 on Dish Network.
Radio: KBOI 670 AM/KTIK 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)
Records: Boise State 2-0; BYU 7-0
Series: Boise State leads 7-3 (last meeting: Boise State lost 28-25 last season in Provo, Utah)
Vegas line: BYU by 3.5
Weather: 55 degrees at kickoff, cloudy skies, 15% chance of rain, 7 mph winds
This story was originally published November 5, 2020 at 3:45 PM.
