Three keys — and three score predictions — for Boise State’s bowl game vs. Washington
The Boise State football program is back on familiar ground Saturday against Washington in the Las Vegas Bowl (5:30 p.m. MT, ABC) — even beyond the field where the Broncos have won all four bowl games they’ve played.
No. 18 Boise State (12-1) is an underdog at a neutral site.
And that’s one time when you don’t want to bet against the Broncos.
They beat Oregon in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl as 7-point underdogs and Arizona as 2.5-point underdogs in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl. Before that, they won a regular-season, neutral-site game against Virginia Tech in 2010 and Fiesta Bowls against TCU (2009 season) and Oklahoma (2006).
Since 2006, the Broncos are 5-3 as neutral-site underdogs — and two of those losses came back to back with an interim coach in the 2013 Hawaii Bowl vs. Oregon State and in the first game of coach Bryan Harsin’s tenure in 2014 against Ole Miss.
They also have won their past four games as underdogs overall, and five of the past six.
This time, Washington is a 3.5-point favorite — and for good reason. The Huskies might be 7-5, but a look inside that record shows much more than a seven-win team. The Huskies, coming off three straight New Year’s Six bowl appearances, led Pac-12 division champs Oregon and Utah going into the fourth quarter this season. They beat USC, and blew out BYU and Hawaii. They whipped Washington State. They also, of course, no-showed in losses at Colorado and Stanford, two losing teams.
One resource I use when evaluating matchups is the SP+ rankings at ESPN.com. They’re meant to be predictive. And in those rankings, Washington is No. 17. Boise State is No. 31. The Huskies are ranked higher in all three phases, including No. 2 on special teams.
Do the math, and SP+ makes the Huskies an 8.3-point favorite over the Broncos.
Las Vegas has the number much lower.
Still, the expectation is that the Broncos are going to lose. And that’s a dangerous spot for an opponent.
Three Keys
1. Who’s ready to play? This is a weird situation in many ways — in part because of a funky calendar.
The conference championship games fell as late as possible with the first Saturday in December landing on the 7th. That means Boise State will play its bowl game just two weeks after beating Hawaii in the Mountain West championship game.
In those two weeks, coaches had to hit the road to finalize the early signing class announced Wednesday and the players got less time than usual to relax and refocus. The Broncos also lost offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Zak Hill to Arizona State, which adds another layer to a challenging season at quarterback. The Broncos have started three quarterbacks because of injuries.
Washington, meanwhile, had one more week to flush the regular season but has its own issues. Coach Chris Petersen announced his resignation Dec. 2 and the school immediately promoted defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake to head coach. That created the always-distracting situation of Petersen trying to prepare the team for his final game and Lake working to finalize the recruiting class and build his coaching staff.
The Huskies also lost two of their best offensive players to the silly trend of NFL prospects skipping bowl games — meaning the Broncos don’t have to deal with tight end Hunter Bryant or left tackle Trey Adams. The Huskies offense already was a disappointment. That won’t help.
Motivation won’t be an issue. The Broncos’ bowl game last season was canceled and this is a chance for the fourth 13-win season in the school’s FBS history; the Huskies will fight for their coach and seek their first bowl win since the 2015 season.
But which team is actually prepared?
2. Fast start or strong finish? Washington has completely dominated the first quarter this year, outscoring opponents 114-23 (+91). That’s more than double its scoring margin over the other three quarters combined (+42).
Boise State, of course, has gone the other way. The first quarter is the Broncos’ worst quarter (+38) and they have trailed in nine of their 13 games at some point. They’ve won 12 games because of their resilience and a consistent ability to finish games in the fourth quarter. Even in their loss, they outscored BYU 15-0 in the fourth.
Boise State has outscored opponents 50-18 in the fourth quarter of the past seven games with the starters still on the field. It has three wins when trailing entering the fourth quarter for the first time since 1990.
3. Which defense is better? Petersen helped transform Boise State from a program built on high-flying offense to one capable of beating some of the most athletic teams in the country with defense. Pete Kwiatkowski was a huge part of that effort as the defensive line coach from 2006 to 2009 and defensive coordinator from 2010 to 2013. Kwiatkowski followed Petersen to Washington and built a similar tradition in Seattle before handing the reins to Lake, another former Boise State assistant. Kwiatkowski remains the co-defensive coordinator.
Boise State has continued to field dynamic defenses under Harsin. Andy Avalos, who was the coordinator the past three years, learned under Kwiatkowski at Boise State. And first-year Boise State coordinator Jeff Schmedding learned from Kwiatkowski while he was building a career at Eastern Washington.
This game feels like a defensive showdown — and there’s not much difference between the two, although Washington has faced better competition. Washington allows 20.4 points and 355.5 yards per game (5.15 per play); Boise State allows 20.6 points and 346.7 yards (5.23 per play). Both have forced 19 turnovers.
This isn’t as talented of a Washington defense after five Huskies defenders were drafted earlier this year. Boise State, in fact, might have the top NFL prospect on the field in STUD end Curtis Weaver. But there’s a reason the Huskies’ recruiting classes have been ranked in the top 20 in recent years.
Three Predictions
Washington is a 3.5-point favorite with Las Vegas oddsmakers with an over/under of 49.5 total points. The Broncos are 23-13 against the spread in their past 36 games. They are 3-1 straight up in bowl games under Harsin, taking leads of at least 21-0 against Arizona (2014 Fiesta), Northern Illinois (2015 Poinsettia) and Oregon (2017 Las Vegas).
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its past 15 games — but the Huskies were 3-12 before that, struggling to meet soaring expectations. They’ve lost their last three bowl games to a college football who’s who of Ohio State (Rose), Penn State (Fiesta) and Alabama (Peach/CFP semifinal). Throw in Boise State, and the Huskies will have played four straight bowl games against programs in the top 10 of all-time winning percentage in Division I football.
My pick (10-3 straight up, 4-9 ATS): Even the smoothest of coaching changes are disruptive. When Chris Petersen left Boise State at the end of the 2013 regular season, he said he didn’t stay for the bowl game because of what he experienced in 2005. Boise State coach Dan Hawkins stayed for the bowl game on his way out the door for Colorado; Petersen was building his first staff as a head coach while serving as a coordinator under Hawkins. Sound familiar? Boise State was listless in the first half of that 2005 MPC Computers Bowl against Boston College and fell behind 27-0 before rallying and nearly winning. The Eagles prevailed 27-21. When Petersen left in 2013, his Boise State assistants — many of them now at Washington — presided over the lopsided loss to Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl. As much as the Huskies will be motivated to send their coach out a winner, they’re in a difficult situation — and this Boise State team has some magic about it. Boise State 27, Washington 23
Washington perspective, from Lauren Kirschman of The (Tacoma) News Tribune (opponent view is 7-4, 4-7): “Attempting to predict much of anything about Washington has been a tough task this season. The Huskies had to replace key pieces of their offense and defense — including nine defensive starters — and the growing pains have been obvious. While the young defensive talent has taken big strides, an inconsistent offense is still struggling to score. UW scored less than 20 points in each of its final two games, so keeping up with Boise State could be a difficult task.” Boise State 27, Washington 20
Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (9-3, 5-7): “I like Boise here. I just don’t see the motivation for the Huskies, and I think (quarterback) Jacob Eason is not all there — I think he’s thinking about the draft.” Boise State 27, Washington 24
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s assistant editor and sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.
