3 reasons why Boise State football lost out to Memphis for Cotton Bowl berth
The Memphis Tigers are headed to the Cotton Bowl to play No. 10 Penn State.
The Boise State Broncos are headed to the Las Vegas Bowl to play unranked Washington.
Both teams are 12-1. Both teams lost in close fashion to decent teams. Both teams won their conference championships by beating an opponent twice. Their average scoring margin for the season: 16.2 for Boise State, 16.1 for Memphis.
So why did the No. 17 Tigers top the No. 19 Broncos in the College Football Playoff rankings to earn the automatic berth in the New Year’s Six afforded the highest-ranked champion from the Group of Five conferences? Here are three reasons:
1. American Athletic Conference respect: The Mountain West has tried to defuse it, but the American gets more national respect than the Mountain West. Whether it’s because its programs are in larger markets, or East Coast Bias, or the larger financial investments in those programs — or actual performance on the field at times — teams from the American get taken more seriously in rankings.
And this year, that was probably right.
Wyoming was one of the Mountain West’s better teams, and it lost to Tulsa. Air Force was the Mountain West’s second-best team, and it lost to Navy. BYU beat Boise State, after the Cougars lost to South Florida.
American teams Memphis, Cincinnati, SMU, Navy, UCF and Temple made Top 25 appearances this season — including four of them in the first CFP rankings of the year. Mountain West teams Boise State, San Diego State and Air Force made appearances.
As a result, Memphis finished with four wins over teams that spent time in the CFP Top 25: Cincinnati twice, SMU and Navy. Boise State had zero.
2. Boise State didn’t dominate: I harped on it all season, and it came back to haunt the Broncos. If you have a weaker schedule than the teams you’re competing with in the rankings, you have to distinguish yourself through domination.
Boise State beat Marshall 14-7, needed fourth-quarter comebacks against San Jose State and Wyoming and stumbled through the second half of the regular-season finale at Colorado State. The Broncos trailed in nine of their 13 games, and the offensive line was disappointing (61st in yards per carry, 68th in sacks allowed) — a weakness that would have been exploited by a top-10 opponent in the Cotton Bowl.
Memphis hit some bumps, too — a five-point win over Mississippi, a one-point win against Tulsa (the Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard field goal that would have won it) and 48 points allowed to SMU in addition to the two-point loss to Temple.
But all things being equal, the better schedule strength will win. The Sagarin Ratings placed Memphis’ schedule 70th and Boise State’s 86th. That’s unlucky for Boise State, which scheduled games at Florida State and BYU and at home against Marshall and Portland State — better than Memphis’ collection of Mississippi, two Sun Belt teams (South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe) and an FCS team (Southern).
3. The November schedule was a dud. Boise State lost 28-25 on Oct. 19 at BYU, falling out of the lead position in the Cotton Bowl race. The Broncos were No. 14 in the AP Top 25 — tops in the Group of Five — at the time. The final score was close but it’s important to remember that the Broncos trailed by 18 points in the fourth quarter and never had the ball with a chance to regain the lead.
To overcome that setback, they needed a big-game moment. But the back half of the schedule featured three teams that finished with losing records, two teams that finished with seven wins and Hawaii, which isn’t a top-50 team despite its nine wins.
Memphis, meanwhile, was still behind Boise State in the AP poll after the BYU game. Boise State was No. 22; Memphis was one spot outside the Top 25.
But the Tigers played then-No. 15 and undefeated SMU and back-to-back games against ranked Cincinnati in the back half of their schedule. That provided three marquee wins.
Boise State’s best win, meanwhile, came Sept. 20 against Air Force — before anyone realized the Falcons would be a 10-win team.
Last year, the Broncos finished with three games against Top 25 opponents in a ,four-week stretch: Fresno State, Utah State and Fresno State. They needed that again.
Chadd Cripe is the Idaho Statesman’s assistant editor and sports columnist. Contact him at ccripe@idahostatesman.com and follow @chaddcripe on Twitter.
This story was originally published December 8, 2019 at 1:19 PM.
