Bowl projections: Boise State could face a neighbor in Las Vegas Bowl
The Pac-12’s bowl situation could get a little messy if the conference champion reaches the College Football Playoff, which has become a popular prognostication.
That would give the Pac-12 two spots in the New Year’s Six (one in the semifinals, one in the Rose Bowl) and affect the rest of its bowl partners. Most notably for the Mountain West, that could mean the Pac-12 doesn’t have a team to fill its spot in the Las Vegas Bowl — leaving the Mountain West’s top team without its expected marquee opponent.
Right now, however, it still looks like the Pac-12 will be able to send a team to Vegas. The key game this week is Cal-Stanford, where a Cal win would make the Bears eligible and a loss would force them to win next week at UCLA.
Below are our latest projections.
A few things to keep in mind:
▪ The highest-ranked champion of a Group of Five conference gets an automatic New Year’s Six bid. That spot is in the Cotton Bowl this year. The American Athletic Conference champion is the favorite with Memphis at No. 18, Cincinnati at No. 19 and Boise State at No. 20 this week.
▪ The first selection from the Mountain West goes to the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cheez-It Bowl gets the second pick if the Pac-12 or Big 12 fails to fill its spot. We’re projecting the Pac-12 will be short.
▪ The Famous Idaho Potato and New Mexico bowls choose next in collaboration with the conference. The Hawaii Bowl also fits in this group but the Mountain West gave its spot to BYU this year in exchange for a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. We’re projecting that ESPN, as the owner of both events, will invite Hawaii to the Hawaii Bowl and put the displaced American team elsewhere, perhaps in Armed Forces.
▪ The Arizona Bowl chooses last. The Mountain West also has a backup deal with the Redbox Bowl (unlikely to open) and a relationship with the Frisco Bowl.
This week’s projection for Boise State is a date with Washington State in the Las Vegas Bowl. The winner of Saturday’s Oregon State-Washington State game becomes bowl-eligible, and the loser likely won’t get eligible. The Cougars are at home and coming off a beatdown of Stanford, so they’re heavily favored to dispatch the Beavers.
Boise State and Washington State played an entertaining home-and-home series in 2016-17, splitting games that were decided by three points each.
New Year’s Six
Fiesta, Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal): Ohio State vs. Clemson
Peach, Dec. 28 (CFP semifinal): LSU vs. Utah
Rose, Jan. 1 (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten): Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar, Jan. 1 (Big 12 vs. SEC): Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Orange, Dec. 30 (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame): Virginia vs. Georgia
Cotton, Dec. 28 (Group of Five vs. at-large): Cincinnati vs. Florida
Mountain West
Las Vegas, Dec. 21 (MW vs. Pac-12): Boise State vs. Washington State
Cheez-It, Dec. 27 (Pac-12/MW vs. Big 12): Air Force vs. Kansas State
Famous Idaho Potato, Jan. 3 (MW vs. MAC): Utah State vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Mexico, Dec. 21 (MW vs. C-USA): San Diego State vs. Louisiana Tech
Hawaii, Dec. 24 (American vs. BYU): Hawaii vs. BYU
Armed Forces, Jan. 4 (MW vs. Big Ten/at-large): Fresno State vs. Toledo
Arizona, Dec. 31 (MW vs. Sun Belt): Wyoming vs. Georgia Southern
Elsewhere: Nevada could be placed in a non-Mountain West bowl.
