Statesman bowl projections: Boise State against familiar face in familiar spot after big win

It is amazing what one win can do — Boise State’s 24-17 win over then-AP No. 16 Fresno State last Friday sure made the Broncos’ bowl picture a lot more rosy.

The Broncos are 20-point favorites for Friday’s game at New Mexico, and if they win, will set up a de facto Mountain Division championship game Nov. 24 against Utah State at Albertsons Stadium.

Not only might a Mountain West championship appearance be within grasp, but that New Year’s Six bowl berth for the Group of Five is still very much alive. UCF and Cincinnati play Saturday; both are in the same division of the American. The loser is likely out, and the winner still must win the conference championship.

It is no guarantee Cincinnati, should it win, would finish ahead of the Mountain West champion. The Bearcats are No. 24 in the CFP, Utah State is 23rd and Boise State is 25th. If the Mountain Division winner can win the conference, it means wins over potentially two ranked teams in consecutive weeks (if Fresno State jumps back in the rankings).

Considering Boise State will host Utah State, and with a win, would host the Mountain West championship, it’s tough to pick against the Broncos at home. I have the Broncos against ex-Boise State defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox and his Cal Bears in Las Vegas. UCF hasn’t looked overly impressive this season, but the Knights have won 22 in a row, so keeping them in the NY6 slot isn’t a leap of logic.

If Hawaii beats UNLV on Saturday, the Rainbow Warriors will be bowl-eligible. I still have a Mountain West team in the Cheez-It Bowl, assuming the Big 12 will have two teams in the New Year’s Six. That bowl is fifth in the pecking order after the NY6, and though five teams are 5-5 or 4-6, I’ll go with the 4-6 teams (TCU and Kansas State) not winning out, thus giving the Big 12 six bowl teams.

Check out the Mountain West bowl tie-ins here.

MOUNTAIN WEST BOWL GAMES

Las Vegas (Dec. 15): Boise State vs. Cal

New Mexico (Dec. 15): Utah State vs. FAU

Famous Idaho Potato (Dec. 21): San Diego State vs. Western Michigan

Hawaii (Dec. 22): Hawaii vs. UAB

Cheez-It (Dec. 26): Fresno State vs. USC

Arizona (Dec. 29): Nevada vs. Arkansas State

NEW YEAR’S SIX

Cotton (Dec. 29, CFP semi): Alabama vs. Michigan

Orange (Dec. 29, CFP semi): Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Peach (Dec. 29): LSU vs. UCF

Sugar (Jan. 1): Oklahoma vs. Georgia

Rose (Jan. 1): Washington State vs. Ohio State

Fiesta (Jan. 1): Syracuse vs. West Virginia

This story was originally published November 14, 2018 at 6:26 PM.