Boise State has one game left. Its Mountain West seed possibilities? A wide range
Boise State men’s basketball wraps up its regular season on Saturday afternoon with a trip to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State, the hottest team in the Mountain West.
And the outcome will be vital to conference tournament seeding for both teams in what is a logjam of a league.
The Broncos and Rams, who have won eight straight, were part of a four-way tie for 5th place in the Mountain West as of Friday, sitting at 11-8 with Nevada and UNLV. Grand Canyon was just ahead at 12-7.
With every team facing its final game this weekend, seeds 1 through 8 are still to be decided for next week’s Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas, and Boise State could be anywhere from 5 to 8.
Here’s what needs to happen for the Broncos to finish in each of those positions, along with the tiebreakers that would be a factor.
Mountain West tiebreakers
The first tiebreaker to separate a two-team tie is head-to-head during conference play. Because Boise State lost both games to fourth-place Grand Canyon, that locks the Broncos out of being the 4 seed if those two tie.
As for other head-to-head results, BSU lost both games to UNLV, split its series with Nevada and would secure a season sweep of Colorado State with a win Saturday.
If teams split the series in a two-way tie, each team’s record is compared against the teams atop the conference standings, moving down from No. 1 to No. 2 and so on until a discrepancy is found.
But what’s very likely to come into play in the Mountain West after Saturday’s games is a three-way tie or more, with the real likelihood of a host of teams sitting at 12-8. In that case, the tiebreaker is the combined record for each team against all other teams involved in the tie. If that reduces the tiebreaker evenly to two teams, then it reverts to the two-team tiebreaker rule for those clubs.
Heading into Saturday, here are each team’s records against one another. Grand Canyon is included because an upset loss to Fresno State could drop the Antelopes into a tie. Boise State and Colorado State are the only two within the group facing off this weekend.
- Grand Canyon: 3-3
- Colorado State: 3-2
- Boise State: 2-5
- Nevada: 4-2
- UNLV: 4-4
The number of games played against the other teams is not uniform because of uneven scheduling in the Mountain West, a result of Grand Canyon’s addition. For example, Boise State played Fresno State and Air Force only once, while Colorado State played Nevada and Grand Canyon once.
Boise State seed scenarios
Here’s what needs to happen for Boise State to land in each position.
5 seed
First, Boise State must win at Colorado State, and then it would need some help:
- Air Force wins over Nevada, San Diego State wins over UNLV, and Grand Canyon wins over Fresno State, OR
- New Mexico wins over Utah State, San Diego State wins over UNLV, and Grand Canyon wins over Fresno State
The latter of those scenarios is more likely, and it would leave only Boise State and Nevada tied at 12-8. The Broncos would win that tiebreaker because the teams split in the regular season, and BSU swept what would be No. 1 seed New Mexico.
The Aztecs did their part Friday night by beating UNLV, which was needed in both instances.
6 seed
A win for UNLV at San Diego State would automatically have pushed Boise State out of a top-five finish. That didn’t happen. If it isn’t the 5 seed, then to be the 6 seed, Boise State must beat Colorado State, and also:
- Grand Canyon wins over Fresno State and New Mexico wins over Utah State, OR
- Grand Canyon wins over Fresno State and Air Force wins over Nevada
7 seed
After San Diego State defeated UNLV on Friday night, it actually took the No. 7 seed out of the picture for the Broncos. Because the only way BSU would have been here is with these scenarios, coupled with beating Colorado State:
- UNLV, Fresno State and Nevada all win their games, OR
- UNLV, Grand Canyon, Nevada and Utah State all win their games
8 seed
This is a simple one: If Boise State loses, it will be the 8 seed and stuck in the 8-9 game in the Mountain West Tournament, likely against Wyoming. The winner of that game would come up against the No. 1 seed in the next round.
A note about a couple of the scenarios: Air Force beating Nevada is highly unlikely, because the Falcons (3-27, 0-19) can’t seem to beat anybody. They have lost 23 straight games.
The rest of the games all must be considered tossups, given the way the Mountain West season has unfolded.
