Why winning Friday’s game against UNLV is so important for Boise State
Boise State men’s basketball’s game against UNLV on Friday night may just seem like a mid-conference tilt on its face, but it could have huge ramifications come the end of the regular season.
The Broncos (15-9, 7-6 Mountain West) host the Rebels (12-12, 7-6) at ExtraMile Arena at 8 p.m., and the winner will, at worst, hold sole position of sixth place in the conference standings. At best, the victor could move into a tie for fifth and sit just one game outside fourth by the end of the weekend.
Boise State head coach Leon Rice and his team never dare to look beyond the game in front of them, but why does Friday’s tilt against UNLV matter so much?
A win for Boise State will keep the Broncos in the race for a top-four spot in the Mountain West standings, which would guarantee a bye through the first round of the conference tournament next month.
But if the Broncos lose on Friday night? The Mountain West’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and with Boise State’s 89-85 overtime loss to UNLV last month, a second loss for the Broncos would put them a game behind the Rebels and on the wrong side of the tiebreaker.
The second tiebreaker is each team’s record against the highest-ranked team in descending order, which could end up being any order of teams by mid-March.
Here’s why Boise State should care so much about securing a top-five spot in the conference standings, and what the Broncos need to do across the final seven games of the regular season.
Why does a top-five spot matter?
All 12 teams in the Mountain West partake in the conference tournament, which runs March 11-14 in Las Vegas.
However, the top four teams at the end of the regular season earn a bye through the first round.
Utah State (12-2) and San Diego State (11-2), who are the top two teams, appear to be approaching safe territory for a top-four spot, while third-place New Mexico (10-4) is on the cusp. Beyond New Mexico sit Nevada (9-4), Grand Canyon (8-5), and Boise State and UNLV (7-6).
With the top four earning a first-round bye, that means the team that finishes fifth is typically frustrated at the prospect of playing an extra game en route to a tournament championship. But in 2026, fifth place may not be that big of a deal.
The fifth-place team will face the conference’s last-place team in the first round. That spot will most likely be held by Air Force this year, which is just 3-21 overall and winless in conference play at 0-13.
Boise State defeated Air Force 96-54 in late January, and while playing a first-round tournament game isn’t ideal, it would give the Broncos a good warm-up game ahead of facing the No. 4 seed in the quarterfinals.
What does Boise State’s regular-season path look like?
After starting 1-5 in conference play, Boise State has surged back into the top half of the conference by winning six of its last seven games. But most of those wins were against lower-half opposition, such as Air Force, San Jose State (1-12) and Wyoming (4-9).
But the Broncos have proven their chops during that run, too. They defeated Nevada 91-87 in overtime on Feb. 3 to split the series, then completed the regular-season sweep of New Mexico with a 91-90 road win this past Friday.
Here’s what the rest of Boise State’s schedule looks like, along with each team’s record as of Thursday afternoon:
- Vs. UNLV (7-6)
- At Utah State (12-2)
- Vs. San Jose State (1-12)
- Vs. Wyoming (4-9)
- At Fresno State (5-8)
- Vs. San Diego State (11-2)
- At Colorado State (5-8)
The Mountain West switched to a 20-game schedule for the first time last year, and Boise State finished the regular season in fifth with a 14-6 record.
Matching that mark would require the Broncos to win out the rest of the way — a feat that doesn’t seem reasonable, given Boise State’s streaky nature this season.
But let’s say Boise State wins all of its games down the stretch except for the road trip to Utah State — that would put the Broncos at 13-7 and easily in the mix for a top-five finish.
A season sweep over both UNLV and New Mexico would additionally put the Broncos in a great position over those two teams. Having already been swept by Grand Canyon means Boise State would need to have a better record than the Antelopes to finish above them.
Things could get a little dicier if Boise State also loses to San Diego State, which is in the hunt for the top spot in the conference — remember, if teams split their head-to-head matchup, the tiebreaker moves to each team’s record against the top-ranked team and moves down the standings until there’s a discrepancy.
Both UNLV and New Mexico have also lost their first games to Utah State and San Diego State, which plays into the Broncos’ favor, but there’s still a lot to play for for all teams involved.
The long story short?
A win for Boise State over UNLV on Friday night would ensure the Rebels don’t have the head-to-head tiebreaker and bring the Broncos one step closer to an easier path in the conference tournament.
