Boise State’s Mountain West, NCAA seeding on the line against Utah State
Forget the bubble, the Boise State men’s basketball team is going dancing.
Major bracketology prognosticators predict the Broncos will make this year’s NCAA Tournament field, and a bid seems safe regardless of what happens the rest of the way, but their projected seed remains up for debate.
The Broncos can do themselves a major favor in the resume department with a Quadrant 1 win over Utah State at 7 p.m. Saturday at Dee Glenn Smith Spectrum in Logan, Utah.
“Boise State scanned its dance QR code by beating San Diego State at home Tuesday,” wrote Brian Bennett of The Athletic. “The Broncos should join the Aztecs and Nevada in the tournament.”
Though winning a Mountain West Tournament championship is likely not a necessity, the Broncos can improve their potential tournament seed by collecting as many wins as possible over the next week.
After winning both the regular season and tournament championships last season, Boise State received a program-record No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and lost to No. 9 Memphis.
The team would like to earn the program’s first tournament win this season.
“It’s a great feeling to know we’re probably going to be in the tournament,” Boise State junior Chibuzo Agbo said. “But we’re still focused on this next game and still focused on the Mountain West Tournament.”
The Mountain West regular season wraps up Saturday, and the Broncos still have an outside shot at being co-champions. They’ll need a win over Utah State combined with a San Diego State loss to Wyoming to earn a share of the title.
San Diego State is already assured the No. 1 seed in next week’s conference tournament, so the Broncos are fighting to earn the No. 2 seed, which comes with more favorable tipoff times. The No. 3 seed opens tournament play at 9:30 p.m. Mountain time Thursday and would then play in a 10 p.m. Mountain time semifinal on Friday.
The Broncos can secure the No. 2 seed by beating the Aggies on Saturday, but a loss combined with a Nevada victory over UNLV would create a three-way tie for second. In that case, the No. 2 seed would be awarded to Nevada based on the following criteria: records for comparison are all 2-2; Nevada and Boise State each split with San Diego State, while Utah State was swept; Nevada is No. 2 because it then reverts to a two-way tiebreaker with Boise State and the Broncos have a loss to San Jose State.
“The hits keep coming in the Mountain West. There’s opportunities and great teams everywhere you turn,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said. “... (Utah State) is playing great, and we’re all playing for something and it just makes for these fantastic games.”
Utah State, which fell 82-59 Jan. 7 in Boise, is considered a bubble team by most bracketology people, so a Quad 1 win over Boise State would be huge for the Aggies, who are 6-2 in their past eight games after a slow start.
If the postseason began today, here’s where experts think the Broncos would land.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN
Seed: No. 10
Opponent: No. 7 Iowa
Region: East (New York)
First-round location: Denver
Total MW bids: Three (No. 6 San Diego State, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports
Seed: No. 9
Opponent: No. 8 Providence
Region: West (Las Vegas)
First-round location: Columbus
Total MW bids: Three (No. 6 San Diego State, No. 9 Nevada, No. 9 Boise State)
Brian Bennett, The Athletic
Seed: No. 10
Opponent: No. 7 Illinois
Region: West (Las Vegas)
First-round location: Sacramento
Total MW bids: Three (No. 5 San Diego State, No. 10 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)
Bill Bender, Sporting News
Seed: No. 10
Total MW bids: Four (No. 6 San Diego State, No. 10 Boise State, No. 10 Nevada, No. 11 Utah State)
Andy Katz, NCAA.com correspondent
Seed: No. 11
Opponent: No. 11 Clemson
Region: First Four (Dayton)
Total MW bids: Three (No. 5 San Diego State, No. 11 Boise State, No. 11 Nevada)
BOISE STATE AT UTAH STATE
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
Where: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, Utah
TV: Mountain West Network (broncosports.com/mwn)
Radio: KBOI 93.1 FM and 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 23-7, 13-4 MW; Utah State 23-7, 12-5
Series: Utah State leads the series 34-21, but the Broncos have won the past five meetings.
KenPom rating: Boise State 25, Utah State 26
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 38% chance of beating Utah State. His score prediction is a 74-70 Utah State victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Utah State has a 61.6% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 3.0.
