Boise State can still earn a share of the Mountain West regular-season title. Here’s how
The Boise State men’s basketball team learned of San Diego State’s last-second win over New Mexico while in the airport Saturday night following an overtime loss to San Jose State.
Saturday’s results made winning an outright regular-season title for the second straight season impossible for the Broncos, but there remains an outside chance they earn a share of the Mountain West championship if everything goes their way.
That outside chance goes nowhere unless Boise State gets a win over No. 18 San Diego State at 7 p.m. Tuesday at ExtraMile Arena. The Broncos (22-7, 12-4) are two games back of the first-place Aztecs (23-5, 14-2) in the standings with two games remaining. San Diego State won the first meeting between the two teams 72-52 on Feb. 3 in San Diego.
San Diego State has already clinched a share of its ninth Mountain West regular-season title and for the seventh time in program history has earned the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
“Honestly, I don’t think it changes anything for us,” said Boise State fifth-year senior Marcus Shaver Jr., who missed the first meeting against SDSU with an ankle injury. “We’re basketball players and we’re just going to go out there and whatever happens, happens. We’re not coming in here to lose, so we’re just going to play our heart out.”
If Boise State wins its final two games (SDSU, at Utah State) and San Diego State were to lose its two (at BSU, Wyoming), that would leave them tied atop the standings.
The tie would then be broken for seeding in the Mountain West Tournament. Here is how that would work, according the the Mountain West, and why San Diego State already has the No. 1 seed.
Two-way tie between Boise State, San Diego State
The rules: If two teams tie for a position, and one holds a win-loss advantage during regular-season play, that team receives the higher seed. If the two teams split their games during the regular season, each tied team’s record shall be compared against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains the advantage. If two teams remain tied after all other tie-breakers have been exhausted, the last tie-breaker to determine an advantage shall be team NET rankings, as determined by the most updated official NCAA NET.
Order: 1. San Diego State, 2. Boise State (advantage SDSU for sweeping San Jose State)
SAN DIEGO STATE AT BOISE STATE
When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
Where: ExtraMile Arena, Boise
TV: CBS Sports Network
Radio: KBOI 670 AM or 93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 22-7, 12-4 MW; San Diego State 23-5, 14-2 MW
Series: San Diego State leads the all-time series 18-10
Vegas line: Boise State by 2.5
KenPom rating: Boise State 26, San Diego State 16
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 55% chance of beating San Diego State. His score prediction is a 68-66 BSU victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: Boise State has a 56.7% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 1.7.
This story was originally published February 27, 2023 at 5:56 PM.
