Boise State’s game vs. St. Bonaventure could show Broncos’ postseason potential
There are many games left to play between now and the Mountain West men’s basketball tournament in March, but what happens this week clear across the country could end up determining what kind of postseason potential Boise State has.
The Broncos face No. 22 St. Bonaventure on Thursday in the first round of the Shriners Children’s Charleston Classic in Charleston, South Carolina. Tipoff is noon Mountain time at TD Arena, and the game will be nationally televised on ESPN2.
The Bonnies (2-0) were the unanimous pick to win the Atlantic 10 after claiming both the regular season and tournament titles last season, earning a spot in the NCAA Tournament. An upset win would be a huge boost to Boise State’s NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking, which helps the selection committee decide which teams to consider for NCAA Tournament bids.
“That’s why you get into these tournaments,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said. “You hope you have a terrific field. You hope you have these kinds of opportunities, especially on a neutral court, and this tournament is shaped up to be terrific.”
Six of the eight teams in Charleston currently rank among the top 100 in the NET, including the Bonnies, who sit at No. 31 and would qualify as a Quadrant 1 opponent for the Broncos. CBSSports.com released NET rankings on Tuesday, but the NCAA doesn’t begin updating them on a daily basis until early December.
The other teams in the tournament are Clemson (3-0), Temple (1-1), Marquette (3-0), Ole Miss (2-0), Elon (2-1) and West Virginia (2-0). The Broncos — No. 53 in the NET even after a loss to UC Irvine, which is No. 102 — will play either Clemson or Temple on Friday, followed by another game on Sunday.
“The thing about them is these numbers are going to keep going forward,” Rice said. “I mean, St. Bonaventure is gonna win 25 games when it’s all said and done. Clemson’s gonna have a great year. Marquette’s gonna win a lot of games in a great league, so their numbers are gonna be so good, and I haven’t talked about West Virginia and Ole Miss.”
St. Bonaventure is the only Atlantic 10 program to score double-digit conference wins in seven consecutive seasons entering this year, and the Bonnies have 83 league wins dating back to the start of the 2014-15 campaign. Seniors Kyle Lofton and Osun Osunniyi were both named to the preseason all-conference team, and both players were on the team when St. Bonaventure lost 72-52 to Boise State in the 2018 Cayman Islands Classic.
“It was funny because two of the kids in the box score are two of his best players now. They were freshmen then, so it was funny to look back on it, because they looked like little kids back then. Now they’re grown men,” Rice said. “I’m telling you what, they did an amazing job with development, and they kept them there. They developed them, and it shows a lot about these kids’ character and also shows a lot about that program.”
Max Rice, coach Rice’s son, is the only current Bronco who was on the roster in 2018.
BOISE STATE VS. ST. BONAVENTURE
When: Noon MT Thursday
What: Shriners Children’s Charleston Classic
Where: TD Arena, Charleston, South Carolina
TV: ESPN2 (Derek Jones and Tim Welsh). That’s DirecTV 209, DISH Network 143 and Sparklight 134.
Radio: 1350 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 1-1, St. Bonaventure 2-0
Series: Boise State leads 1-0. The Broncos won 72-52 in the 2018 Cayman Islands Classic.
Vegas line: St. Bonaventure by 7
KenPom rating: St. Bonaventure 35, Boise State 75
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 33% chance of beating St. Bonaventure. His score prediction is a 69-64 Bonnies victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: St. Bonaventure has a 70.7% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 5.4.
This story was originally published November 17, 2021 at 3:42 PM.
