Boise State at San Diego State men’s basketball series: How to watch, prediction and odds
The surest way to a Mountain West regular-season championship is simple: keep winning.
But that’s easier said than done for the first-place Boise State men’s basketball team, which will take on No. 22 San Diego State in a two-game series at 7 p.m. Thursday (Fox Sports 1) and 2 p.m. Saturday (CBS Sports Network) at Viejas Arena.
“I think it starts with the privilege to have these moments and to be able to play in these games,” Boise State coach Leon Rice said in a Zoom interview Tuesday. “… Everyone in this league has had to endure — and some a lot more than others — to be able to get this league season in and to have it where we get these last games that mean so much to the standings and mean so much on a national level. It’s a privilege to be able to play and compete in these situations.”
The Broncos (18-4, 14-3 MW) are assured a regular-season title if they sweep the Aztecs (17-4, 11-3) and then beat Fresno State in a rescheduled game March 2 at ExtraMile Arena. Boise State could still claim the championship with a split against the Aztecs and a win over the Bulldogs, but that path becomes less clear depending on how Colorado State performs. The Rams (14-4, 11-3) have a two-game series against Air Force remaining, plus makeup games against New Mexico and Nevada.
If Boise State splits with the Aztecs and beats Fresno, the Rams could claim the title by winning out based on a better winning percentage.
Should the Broncos claim at least one win in San Diego and beat Fresno State, the Aztecs would not be able to match Boise State’s 16 conference wins. San Diego State will play a rescheduled game against UNLV on March 3, and will be awarded two conference wins after the league declared the SDSU-New Mexico series a forfeit by the Lobos.
Between Boise State, San Diego State and Colorado State, the Broncos are the only team that will have played the full 20 league games. The Rams will play 18 and the Aztecs will be credited for 19 league games with the New Mexico forfeit.
“I do really want competitive integrity for the league for the 12 weeks we’ve spent grinding away. All of us, and I’m not talking about just us,” Rice said. “I’m talking about all these teams that are in this position, fighting for the Mountain West championship.”
NOTABLES
▪ Derrick Alston Jr. was named the Mountain West Men’s Basketball Player of the Week after the Broncos’ sweep of Utah State. Alston averaged 24.5 points, 2.5 assists and 2 rebounds per game while shooting 47.1% from the floor and 46.2% from 3-point range. He also was 11-for-12 from the free-throw line.
▪ The Mountain West announced Monday that its men’s and women’s basketball tournaments will be played without spectators to mitigate the risk of exposure to the coronavirus. The women will play March 7-10 and the men March 10-13. All games are at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. The Mountain West Network will live-stream every women’s game, and the championship will be televised on CBS Sports Network. The first round of the men’s tournament will be streamed on the Mountain West Network, while CBS Sports Network will televise the quarterfinals and semifinals. The championship will air on CBS.
▪ Boise State will host Fresno State at 5 p.m. March 2 at ExtraMile Arena (CBS Sports Network) to make up for the Jan. 22 game that was postponed because of a false positive COVID-19 test within the Broncos’ program. The Mountain West announced seven rescheduled games overall to ensure that each team in the league plays every other team at least once during the regular season. Six games from previously postponed series will not be rescheduled and declared no contests. The San Diego State at New Mexico series initially scheduled for Feb. 3 and Feb. 5 has been declared a forfeit, and SDSU will be awarded two wins and New Mexico two losses for the purposes of final regular-season standings and conference tournament seeding.
“Everybody’s got a different angle of what would be right for them,” Rice said regarding rescheduling postponed games. “… And then you’re talking about TV money and NCAA money. … You’re talking about health and well-being and student-athlete welfare. To figure out what is best is really, really difficult.”
The rescheduled games include (all times Mountain):
Tuesday, March 2
Fresno State at Boise State (CBSSN), 5 p.m.
Wednesday, March 3
New Mexico at Colorado State (MWN), TBA
San Diego State at UNLV (CBSSN), 7 p.m.
Thursday, March 4
Wyoming at Utah State (FS1), 7:30 p.m.
Friday, March 5
Colorado State at Nevada (CBSSN), 7 p.m.
Saturday, March 6
Utah State at Fresno State (FS1), 9 p.m.
UNLV at Wyoming (CBSSN), 9 p.m.
Note: A makeup game between Nevada and San Jose State that was scheduled for March 3 has been canceled because of positive COVID-19 cases within the Spartans’ program. The game will be declared a no contest.
BOISE STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE
When: 7 p.m. Thursday and 2 p.m. Saturday
Where: Viejas Arena in San Diego, California
TV: Fox Sports 1 (Thursday), CBS Sports Network (Saturday)
Radio: KBOI 670 AM (Bob Behler, Abe Jackson)
Records: Boise State 18-4, 14-3 MW; San Diego State 17-4, 11-3 MW
Series: San Diego State 15-7
Last meeting: San Diego State won 81-68 on March 6, 2020, in the MW Tournament
Vegas line: San Diego State by 6
KenPom rating: Boise State 55; San Diego State 19
KenPom & ESPN predictions
Ken Pomeroy, who created the popular college basketball statistical website KenPom.com, ranks every Division I team using an adjusted efficiency margin, which Pomeroy defines as the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
According to Pomeroy’s detailed statistical analysis, Boise State has a 29% chance of beating San Diego State. His score prediction is a 72-66 SDSU victory.
ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index: San Diego State has a 73.9% chance of winning with a predicted point differential of 6.6.
Women: BSU plays final homestand
The Boise State women’s basketball team wraps up its Mountain West regular-season schedule with a pair of home games against San Diego State.
The games are scheduled for 2 p.m. Friday and 1 p.m. Sunday at ExtraMile Arena. The university is making 900 tickets available for each game. Tickets range from $5 to $10 and can be purchased online at BroncoSports.com/tickets or by calling the athletic ticket office at (208) 426-4737.
The Broncos (12-7, 9-7 MW) are currently fifth in the conference standings, while the Aztecs (6-15, 4-11) are eighth. San Diego State is coming off a series split with defending regular-season champion Fresno State. The top six teams in the standings receive a first-round bye in the conference tournament.
Sunday’s game will be the final home game of redshirt senior center Mallory McGwire’s career. With a limited number of fans allowed to attend, McGwire said much of her family will be at Sunday’s senior sendoff.
“My mom is overwhelmed with happiness because she actually gets to see me play in a jersey one more time,” McGwire said. “I mean, everybody’s excited, but it’s really special for her because she really thought she wasn’t going to see me play again.”
This story was originally published February 24, 2021 at 4:03 PM.
