Roth, not Achilles, has the best shot at defeating Risch | Opinion

Former Rep. Larry LaRocco recently asked David Roth to fold his Senate campaign and hand his voters to independent Todd Achilles, so Idaho could host a “clean” Achilles-versus-Risch race. It’s a gracious-sounding plea.

The only poll in the race makes the opposite case.

And not just any poll. The survey LaRocco’s argument has to reckon with was released by Jim Risch’s own campaign — and even that poll, built to flatter the incumbent, shows Roth as the clear leading challenger.

On the ballot test — the one question that imitates a real election — Roth draws 15%. Achilles draws 7%. Natalie Fleming, the other independent, draws 5%. The Democrat more than doubles the leading independent and out-polls both of them combined. Yes, Risch leads at 55% — no surprise for a Republican incumbent in Idaho. The contest this poll actually settles is the one for second place: who is the real alternative? The answer is Roth.

LaRocco’s theory is that independents are surging and Democrats are dead weight. The numbers say the reverse. Achilles has outraised Roth many times over and still sits at 7 % A glossy “independent” label and a fat email list aren’t translating into votes. And on name recognition — the very traction Roth supposedly can’t build — fewer Idahoans have never heard of him than have never heard of Achilles. Six in ten 10 don’t know Roth yet. That’s runway, not a ceiling.

So ask the question LaRocco won’t: who is really splitting the anti-Risch vote? Not the Democrat with a party, a ballot line and a base. It’s the two independents carving 12 points off the opposition and blurring where the real challenge lives. Achilles is a former Democrat who left the party and is now drawing votes from its nominee. If clearing the lane is the goal, this poll says the lane runs through Roth.

There’s a deeper point, and it’s why I’m writing. I spent years running the Idaho Falls Soup Kitchen and Community Food Basket, and chairing Habitat for Humanity here — work that depends on showing up for the same people every month, whether or not it’s convenient. A party that dissolves itself every cycle and rents its voters to whichever independent has the slicker fundraising email is telling those Idahoans it has quit on them.

Roth has shown up — in 2022, in 2024, and again now — while others waited for a poll to make it safe. That’s how you build the name ID, the donor lists and the infrastructure that eventually wins.

The honest read of this survey isn’t “Roth should quit.” It’s “Roth is the challenger the opposition already has.” Fund it. Don’t fold it.

LaRocco wants sparks to fly in Idaho. So do I. The poll just shows who should be holding the match.

Dave Manson served as executive director of the Idaho Falls Soup Kitchen and the Community Food Basket of Idaho Falls and as board chair of Habitat for Humanity, Idaho Falls.