Boise doctor cautions community about coronavirus: This is not an overreaction

I know there is a lot out there about COVID-19 right now, and it may seem to some like the response is an overreaction, but please believe me when I tell you that it is not.

It is critically important that you heed the recommendations to “hunker down” with your families and stay home if at all possible. If you must go out, do not congregate.

The good news is that kids and young adults typically have mild infections, but they are still very infectious and can continue to spread the virus.

As hard as it is, this is not a time for playdates with friends. Evidence emerging in just the last few days is making it clear that some people, especially children, can spread the virus with no symptoms at all. Avoid playgrounds as the virus appears to survive on surfaces for up to 72 hours.

The disease can be very aggressive in some populations, with about 20% of those infected requiring hospitalization, and 5% requiring ICU level care. And it’s not just the elderly. Middle aged and even young adults are ending up in ICUs on ventilators.

If we have many sick patients at once, we can’t absorb them all. Even if you think you might not be high risk, remember that the hospital has to divert from other services that you and your children may need. Where will you go when you break an arm, get appendicitis, have a car accident?

We’ve gotten a very late start in our response. Other countries are having their health care systems pushed to the brink. Now some in the United States are, as well. There is absolutely no reason to think that we will not suffer the same fate if we don’t act NOW.

Let me provide you with some sobering numbers.

We have 700,000 people in the greater Boise metro area. If we have just 10% of our population infected, that’s 70,000 people (most reliable estimates suggest that rates of 40-70% are more likely, as in other countries).

It has been well-documented that about 80% of people have mild or moderate illness, about 20% require hospitalization, and 5% require ICU-level care. That’s 3,500 ICU patients (not to mention all the other hospitalized people). I can assure you that we have only a fraction of this number of beds throughout all of the hospitals in our region. Now try running the actual numbers. I’m not an alarmist. The public deserves this honest data about the coming reality.

Panic helps no one. Denial hurts everyone. Preparedness saves lives.

This matters to everyone. Lives are at stake. Please, please, please take this seriously.

Stay healthy and be well!

This story was originally published March 20, 2020 at 12:00 AM.