Further proof is coming: Idaho can’t afford a federal lands grab | Opinion
This week, we have yet another reminder that Idaho can’t possibly afford to take over or manage federal lands.
A forthcoming study, which will be published Friday, provides the most recent reliable estimates of exactly how much Idaho would lose if it were to take over federal lands. The study, which was commissioned by Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, Idaho Business for the Outdoors, the Idaho Outfitters and Guides Association, and the Idaho Wildlife Federation, was performed by Peterson and Associates, which has long been a go-to source for economic analysis of this type in Idaho.
While the full results won’t be released until Friday, the top-line figures are stark.
Idaho would lose $837.7 million directly, in the form of spending by the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management and other federal agencies, as well as Payment in Lieu of Taxes and Secure Rural Schools payments.
That’s nearly 16% of Idaho’s general fund budget.
Roughly another $92 million would be lost through taxes generated by federal spending.
And at stake is nearly $1 billion of the state’s GDP. The report also notes that about 25% of Idaho’s jobs and economy are closely tied to public lands.
Consider also that this year’s budget crisis, spawned by irresponsibly large tax cuts, came in response to projected deficits in the tens, not hundreds, of millions. Multiply this year’s budget crisis 10 or 20 times, and you start to get the picture of what a typical year might be like under a public land grab.
And not all years are typical. Particularly with the advance of climate change, Idaho is increasingly vulnerable to especially bad fire years from time to time. There is no reliable way to put an upper limit on those costs.
“With a bad fire year, the numbers can always go up, almost to infinity,” said Dre Arman, regional stewardship manager and habitat connectivity manager with Backcountry Hunters and Anglers, one of the sponsors of the new study. “You really can’t predict when these natural disasters happen, especially when so many fires have man-made causes.”
How could Idaho fill this enormous hole in its budget? One way would be to raise total state taxes by nearly 15% to 20% in a year, what would certainly be the largest tax increase in state history.
Another option would be to log and mine with unprecedented intensity in the hope that Idaho could bring in enough fees to cover the additional costs. But even if that were possible, it would take years to spin it up, and it would have a dwindling lifetime.
Setting aside environmental degradation for the moment, there are simple economic limitations. Trees take a long time to grow back, and mining areas become less profitable and productive over time as the easy-to–get ore is extracted.
Perhaps a more lucrative option would be to lease out public lands as private playgrounds for the wealthy. Maybe Idaho could generate enough revenue this way. Of course, that would mean that, while the lands would technically be owned by Idahoans, they would be off limits to them.
It’s yet another demonstration of what land transfer opponents have been saying all along: If Idaho ever takes ownership or management responsibility for this land, we will have to sell it or lock ourselves out. The alternative would be to go broke.
Lawmakers should listen to the overwhelming majority of Idaho citizens and abandon foolish land grab schemes.
Bryan Clark is an opinion writer for the Idaho Statesman.