Analysis: Is Harris less likely to beat Trump than Biden or are those fears overblown? | Opinion
With President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would step down from the presidential race, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris the most likely nominee, many people are wondering if this spells doom for the prospect of a Democratic win in November.
I don’t think so. I think it has become substantially more likely. I think Harris as the likely nominee is a development to celebrate, even though I’ve never been a huge fan of hers.
Some have argued that Harris doesn’t have Biden’s record, and Biden had some impressive accomplishments, both electorally and on the policy front, during his presidency. A massive bipartisan infrastructure package, truly significant climate change action, leading support for Ukraine, a singularly impressive Supreme Court pick and many other actions leave him with an impressive legacy. And the failed “red wave” in 2022 gives some reason to worry whether a relatively untested Harris can be as successful.
But this view ignores the writing on the wall.
Driven mainly by a temporary inflation that was largely out of the executive branch’s control, Biden’s approval rating had tanked. Fair or not, his favorability rating was almost as bad as Trump’s, and he had been lagging slightly but persistently behind Trump in the polls. (Harris’ is currently only a bit better, but she has much more room to rise, while Biden’s seemed likely to sink further.)
After his poor performance at the debate (and even before it) voters were justified in having real concerns about whether Biden could do the job of a president well, given his age and mental acuity. That’s the kind of concern that could heavily influence the tiny slice of undecided voters that could be consequential in November.
In short, what Biden still had going for him was mainly that his opponent was Donald Trump, an incredibly weak candidate who is strongly disliked by a majority of the country. But that doesn’t give him an advantage over Harris, who also faces deeply unpopular Trump but is under 60, quick-witted and expert at grilling the dishonest people in Trump’s inner circle.
Will voters revolt at Biden stepping aside after the primary is already basically over? Unlikely.
When someone claims that this is somehow “undemocratic” — or, utterly laughably, a “coup” — what it shows is that the speaker either has no understanding of democracy or doesn’t care about the truth.
Biden had been essentially uncontested in the primary, so voters were never asked their preference between the two of them. But it was clear that a strong majority of voters wanted Biden to step aside, even among those who approved of his job performance. Biden was following the will of the people by stepping aside, not defying it.
The real motivation here is the one that has driven the Trump campaign to try to keep Biden in the race: They thought Biden would be easier to beat. That’s why he and his campaign advisers have thrown a series of hissy fits before and after Biden’s announcement.
I have never been a huge fan of Harris — of her record as a prosecutor in particular — but I’m not going to have a hard decision to make in November. A lot of voters will find themselves in exactly the same position.
And to the degree age and the ability to wage a vigorous campaign will influence the outcome, prospects of a Democratic win improve under Harris.
So this is a development we should welcome. The chances that Trump won’t be president come January — with all the danger to freedom, democracy and human rights in the United States that would entail — probably just rose substantially.