How much did the election change Idaho’s political future? We’ll start to see Thursday
Thursday’s organizational session of the Idaho Legislature will be telling for the political future in this state — for your rights and for the rights of those you care about.
It will be tempting to take a break from paying attention to politics between the elections and the beginning of the legislative session. But this organizational session will be worth close attention.
The organizational session is the annual meeting of lawmakers before the legislative session, where legislators pick the leadership of the House and Senate. The most consequential development will be the selection of Senate pro tem.
For years, the Senate has been a moderating influence as the House has lurched toward the far right. But redistricting has changed that dynamic. A host of far-right first-year senators were elected this year, while a number of far-right House members were defeated.
On the balance, however, it seems likely the changes in the Senate will be more consequential than those in the House. And that means it’s particularly important who will be acting as the Senate’s chief gatekeeper.
As Betsy Russell reported, Pro Tem Chuck Winder will face a challenge from Sen. Lori Den Hartog for the Senate’s top post.
Den Hartog can fairly be described as the furthest-right returning member of the Senate. Winder would in most other states be considered extremely conservative — there was a time in his legislative career when he was working with then-Rep. Janice McGeachin on anti-abortion bills — but in Idaho, he is by far the more moderate candidate. He played a key role in blocking legislation such as House Bill 666, which would have subjected librarians to potential jail sentences for lending books, for example.
According to a Statesman analysis, Den Hartog was the fifth most likely senator to be on the losing side of a vote during the 2022 session. None of the four who were more likely to be in the minority — Sens. Christy Zito, Regina Bayer, Steve Vick and Jim Rice — are returning to the Senate. She also has the highest rating from the Idaho Freedom Foundation of any returning senator, so it’s safe to say that if she becomes the Senate’s gatekeeper, a very different set of bills will be coming to the Senate floor.
If Winder wins, however, that means the Senate’s gatekeeping function may be at least partially maintained, though Winder is sure to have to compromise more often with the vastly larger far-right contingent in his caucus.
A second Senate leadership race, where Russell reports Assistant Majority Leader Abby Lee will face a challenge from Senator-elect Ben Adams, a man who has repeatedly raised the possibility of revolutionary violence, will have a similar impact on the future of the Senate.
While the Senate is expected to move significantly rightward, the results in the House were much more positive for moderates — especially in eastern Idaho where far-right incumbents like Reps. Ron Nate and Karey Hanks were defeated. But those changes may be less consequential.
The main showdown in the House is much more a conflict of personalities than ideologies. Longtime Majority Leader Mike Moyle is seeking to replace Speaker Scott Bedke, but he is being challenged by Rep. Jason Monks. During the last session, Moyle and Monks voted the same way about 94% of the time, according to a Statesman analysis. There isn’t a great deal of light between their stances on policy. This clash has more to do with their personal political futures than the outcome of lawmaking in Idaho.
There are a few additional races that will be telling as to the future of the House, however, particularly the race for majority caucus chair among Reps. James Holtzclaw, Barbara Ehardt and Dustin Manwaring — the last being by far the most moderate.
But I’ll be paying closest attention to the Senate.