Analysis: Idaho’s primary is over, but the die isn’t cast yet. The general matters
For those interested in arresting the advance of the far-right, some of the most important fights lie ahead.
While it’s obviously true that Democrats have no chance of gaining control of either the House or Senate this November, the number of seats they do win could be remarkably important to the course of the next two legislative sessions.
That’s particularly true in the Senate, which has long functioned as a backstop, filtering out at least some of the more harebrained notions that have gained majorities in the House (in a most recent example, jailing librarians who lend books with politically forbidden content, for example).
The primary has assured that this dynamic will change dramatically. In the House, things look mildly better than the status quo. Losses by the far-right, particularly in eastern Idaho, more than offset the gains made in House races in northern Idaho.
But the Senate took a dramatically opposite track, with moderates being routed across the state. The big question in the Senate now is not what they will stop from becoming law, but what terrible ideas they themselves will introduce.
The general election will be pivotal in this regard, because many potentially competitive races pit a Democrat against a Republican nominee likely to be one of the chamber’s furthest right. The prototypical example will be the Moscow-area race pitting former Sen. Dan Foreman, a man best known for aggressive outbursts, including yelling “abortion is murder” at students in the Capitol, against Sen. David Nelson.
A similar race is taking shape in Pocatello, where Rep. James Ruchti is seeking to move on to the Senate, but is being challenged by David Worley, who is running on a platform emphasizing state sovereignty.
Where will these pivotal races take place?
Redistricting means that many boundaries have changed so there’s lots of guesswork involved in coming up with a list of seats that may be competitive. But the map is similar enough to existing districts to make some decent guesses.
There are about eight, possibly nine, districts in the state where there’s a reasonable chance Democrats could win seats. These include District 6 (Latah, Nez Perce and Lewis counties), districts 15-19 (Boise, Garden City and surrounding areas), District 26 (Blaine, Lincoln and Jerome counties) and District 29 (Pocatello).
There may be one other House seat, Rep. Barbara Ehardt’s in District 33 (Idaho Falls), with some outside potential for a Democratic victory. Her repeat challenger, Miranda Marquit, a former county Democratic Party chair and freelance financial journalist, came within about 20 points of victory in the 2020 general election, when the contest between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden generated lots of Republican turnout. Lower turnout in the midterm could narrow that gap some. And, though it’s been more than a decade, Democrats have won in this district before — former Rep. Jerry Shively held the seat from 2008 to 2010.
All in all, it’s a long shot, but it’s one to keep an eye on.
If Democrats managed to win every one of these seats, that would amount to eight Senate seats (one more than they hold now) and 17 House seats (five more than they hold now). Winning all of those is unlikely, but the better organized Democrats can get to fight for those seats, the fewer far-right ideas are likely to be codified in law.
Moderate Republicans have spent a lot of time calling on Democrats for help in the primary election. Those same moderates would do some good by aiding Democrats seeking these pivotal seats in November.