Time is over for wishy-washy decisions on coronavirus in Idaho
Idaho Gov. Brad Little, in announcing the decision Sunday not to mandate closing schools in the state because of COVID-19, said it was based on guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The CDC guidelines say that closing down schools amid a mild outbreak has been shown not to affect the curve of the coronavirus spread, and that countries that did shut down schools, such as Hong Kong, have not had more success in reducing the virus than those that did not, such as Singapore.
Further, a short-term closure of schools might have negative effects, such as requiring vulnerable elderly people like grandparents to look after children while parents are in the workplace. As well, nurses and other health care workers could have to stay home with their kids. Communities need to plan in advance for the impacts of a closure decision, which we haven’t done.
In other words, closing school now for just a week or two won’t do much good, and might even make things worse. As we get further into this, though, we should be looking at closing down schools for 8-20 weeks, according to the CDC guidelines.
Despite early criticism, the governor’s decision to allow schools to stay open this week is based not on a head-in-the-sand, wishful ignorance but on what is the best course of action for the long term. And this is going to be a long-term problem.
In the coming days, Little is going to be faced with harder and harder decisions on how best to handle the spread of COVID-19. He’ll have to decide whether to put a statewide ban on any social gatherings of 100 or more, for instance, a voluntary guideline set by Utah Gov. Gary Herbert.
He’s going to have to make a hard decision on whether to order bars and restaurants to close, except for carryout and delivery, as Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine ordered on Sunday.
And, yes, Little has bought some time this week by leaving school decisions in local hands. The following week is spring break. But the governor might have a hard decision before spring break is over: Send students back to school or keep them home?
The further we get into this global pandemic, which Idaho’s state epidemiologist said could sicken as many as 263,000 to 614,000 Idahoans before all is said and done, “leaving it to the locals” is going to become less and less acceptable as a message from the top.
Little is going to have to be more decisive, and he’s going to have to come down much stronger on the side of caution.
As of Sunday, the state’s website was still offering this advice about COVID-19: “At this time, we are suggesting you live your life as you would normally. Rely on your best judgment as you determine your own risk.”
This is just not acceptable.
Idaho is a state that prides itself on rugged individualism and adherence to free market principles. Idaho also hasn’t been hit hard by COVID-19 — yet.
That will change, though, and rugged individualism and the free market are no match for a global pandemic.
In a press briefing that is making the rounds on social media, Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s health emergencies program, sounds the alarm warning against indecisive leadership.
“Be fast ... You must be the first mover,” Ryan said. “The virus will always get you if you don’t move quickly. ... If you need to be right before you move, you’ll never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good.”
When it comes to a global pandemic, now is the time to err on the side of caution. If we err on the side of caution, and we’re wrong, I’m OK with that. If we err on the side of equivocating and we’re wrong, there’s no going back.
