The political and policy stakes of Idaho’s primary election are high | Opinion
Tuesday’s primary election, particularly on the supermajority Republican side, could have sweeping consequences for the future of Idaho politics and policy.
That’s particularly true because there are so many races on the board that you could easily see going either way. There’s no reliable public polling data available on Idaho legislative races, so it isn’t as easy to handicap things here as in national races. But it’s never too surprising for a seat that has flipped recently to flip again. And there are huge number of such races on the primary ballot this year.
A major part of the ground shift in the Legislature over the last few years had to do with major far-right victories in the Magic Valley, which along with eastern Idaho, had been a stronghold for moderate Republicans. If the mood of the primary electorate there has shifted back, ousting people like Sen. Glenneda Zuiderveld, Sen. Josh Kohl, Rep. David Leavitt, it could easily shift the center of the supermajority GOP caucus.
At the same time, the far-right coalition is trying to retake lost ground in eastern Idaho, with former lawmakers Julianne Young, Karey Hanks and Chad Christensen all attempting comebacks. And heavy campaign spending is targeting longtime Sen. Jim Guthrie, a stalwart moderate. On the other hand, Rep. Barbara Ehardt faces what could be her most credible challenger to date.
And a number of other high-profile races pit incumbents against former lawmakers, like former Sen. Scott Herndon’s challenge to Sen. Jim Woodward, challenges by former lawmakers Megan Blanksma and Terry Gestrin to Sen. Christy Zito, and former Rep. Lori McCann’s challenge to Sen. Dan Foreman.
A significant shift in the political center of the Legislature would change the set of bills that would pass around the margins. But it could have broader implications, too.
House Speaker Mike Moyle seems more vulnerable than at any point in his time in House leadership.
General dissatisfaction with Moyle has been spreading in both factions of the GOP caucus. Placing Rep. Josh Tanner atop the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee resulted in a budgeting process that was somehow even more dysfunctional than under former Rep. Wendy Horman. Meanwhile, some on the far-right accuse even Rep. Heather Scott, whose tinfoil hat credentials cannot be reasonably contested, of being an establishment hack for associating with him.
And as the campaign has stretched on, he’s appeared reluctant in a way past leaders have not.
As Sarah Cutler reported, Rep. Jordan Redman has poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into primary races, targeting incumbents from the moderate faction.
There have been past instances like this, but they were met with swift and harsh punishment.
In the early 1990s, Sens. Stan Hawkins of Ucon and Rex Furness of Rigby had their seniority stripped for participating in at PAC that intervened in the GOP primaries, according the prior Statesman reporting. Discontent about former House Speaker Lawerence Denney’s $10,000 of donations to a PAC attacking fellow Republicans was a significant factor in his ouster and replacement by Scott Bedke, who subsequently rose to lieutenant governor.
Redman’s money dump dwarfs these prior efforts, but as of now, there’s no indication of similar comeuppance headed his way. It’s a serious play not just to change the face of the Republican caucus, but to play the visible role of a kingmaker.
But so far, Redman has suffered no consequences of the kind Hawkins and Denney did. At this moment, Moyle is giving the impression that he is the one thing he has never been in his political career: weak.
If Moyle can’t maintain discipline, can he maintain his speakership?
If he can’t keep targets off his majority’s back, what good is he to them?
If he shows he’s powerless to protect them, it’s a good bet the target will land on his back sooner rather than later.
Bryan Clark is an opinion writer for the Idaho Statesman.