In Idaho, the primary is ‘the real election.’ Did voters turn out for it?
Less than a third of Idaho’s registered voters turned out in Tuesday’s primary elections for federal, state and local offices. The state saw 30% turnout, down a bit from 32% in the 2022 primary election — the last time statewide offices were on the ballot.
Those numbers were slightly lower in the Treasure Valley: Ada County saw 27% turnout Tuesday, while Canyon County saw just 23% turnout.
In the November 2024 general election, by comparison, overall turnout was about 63%.
Turnout for primary elections is often low, but observers say primaries have an outsize effect in deep-red Idaho. General elections — between candidates from all parties — are not competitive in many races, because the Republican candidate will almost certainly win in many parts of the state, said Jaclyn Kettler, a political science professor at Boise State. The same is true of the Democrat nominee in some legislative districts.
That means that whoever wins the Republican primary will likely win the general election. With ideological division in the Republican Party over social issues and approaches to government spending, the type of bills the Idaho Legislature passes can change dramatically based on the leanings of the Republicans who get elected.
“The (Republican) caucus votes together on a lot of issues, but there are some issues where these ideological differences matter a lot in terms of what legislation is being considered and passed,” Kettler said.
In 2024, Boise State professor Jeffrey Lyons told the Idaho Statesman that low turnout in primary elections could be cause for concern.
On Tuesday, incumbent Gov. Brad Little received 140,769 votes, which represents just 13.6% of Idaho voters. Now he will be heavily favored to win the general election.
“A lot of our races are uncompetitive in the general election. We know that the Democrat, whoever it is, is going to win in District 19 next fall. We know that the Republican, whoever it is, will win in District 10,” he said. “What that means is that the primary in many ways is the real election.
“If we don’t have competition at the primary stage, and the general election is a foregone conclusion, you can definitely make an argument that that’s a problem.”
Idaho’s highest turnout rates were in Bear Lake (51.9%) and Shoshone (51.8%) counties. The lowest were in Teton (21.8%), Elmore (22.3%) and Canyon counties.
There were 312,460 ballots cast statewide. About 76% voted in the closed Republican primary. About 16% voted in the Democrat primary.
