COVID-19 cases are dropping in Idaho school districts. Here’s what they look like
As COVID-19 cases drop in school districts across the Treasure Valley, public health officials have expressed hope the trend will continue.
But even with cases and hospitalizations trending in the right direction, community transmission remains high — and experts are cautioning districts not to move too quickly in changing their mitigation measures.
“My fear is that schools are going to see cases going down, and they are going to say, ‘OK, let’s get back to normal, we’re not going to require masks at all,’ ” said Dr. David Pate, the former president and CEO of St. Luke’s Health System. “And of course, that will then result in more transmission of the virus.”
This past week, the Caldwell School District dropped its mask mandate. West Ada, the state’s largest district, and Boise still have theirs in place.
School districts in the Treasure Valley, with and without mask mandates, have seen their cases steadily decline for weeks now.
But the Boise and West Ada districts — which kept their mask mandates in place most of the school year — have not had to close down any of their schools this year. The Nampa, Emmett and Payette districts, which did not require masks, have all had to shut down at least one of their schools temporarily since students returned to the classroom.
Hospitalizations among pediatric patients have also been declining across Idaho, according to data from the Department of Health and Welfare. On Nov. 6, five pediatric patients were hospitalized with confirmed cases of COVID-19. About a month earlier, on Oct. 2, 15 children with COVID-19 cases were hospitalized.
Health officials, however, said it’s too soon to tell whether the surge is over.
Upcoming holidays also present more risks — a time when families will be traveling and hosting more indoor gatherings, said Tamara Fredrickson, health services administrator with the Boise School District.
“The other thing that none of us know is what the COVID-19 virus is going to do during these winter months,” Fredrickson told the Idaho Statesman.
Fredrickson said it’s important to keep COVID-19 mitigation measures in place, especially as kids in the 5-11 age group just start to receive their vaccines.
“We know that our current mitigation measures are working,” she said, “and our overall goal, as we’ve stated all year long, has been to keep all students in school five days a week in in-person learning.”
Ada County school districts report drops in COVID-19 cases
The Boise School District, which has about 23,000 students, reported 31 positive COVID-19 cases and eight presumed positive cases the first week of November. That marks a significant drop from earlier in the year. During the week of Sept. 13, the district reported 168 positive COVID-19 cases.
“Things are going in the right direction, which is great to see,” said Nick Smith, human resources director with the district, during a school board meeting this week.
Quarantine numbers have also been going down in the district. During the week of Nov. 1, 697 people were in quarantine after possible exposures to a person infected with the virus.
That was a slight increase from the week earlier, when the district had 684 people quarantining, but marked a significant drop from the week of Sept. 13, when more than 1,600 people were in quarantine.
“We’ve been on a pretty steady decline,” Smith said. “Unfortunately this last week we had a slight uptick and time is going to have to be the determiner. … Are we starting to see an increase, was it a blip? Time will tell on that. But overall, the data has been moving in the right direction on these quarantines.”
During most weeks of the year, the district saw more positive cases and quarantines reported among elementary students than among secondary students. That is likely a reflection of the vaccine being available for those 12 and older when school began, Smith said.
Boise School District Trustee Beth Oppenheimer said she was “encouraged” by the numbers, but the community will need to continue to be patient.
“Our hospitals are still operating under crisis standards of care. Our community spread is still very, very high,” she said. “Our whole goal this whole year has been, be in person, in school, and make sure that we have teachers in the classroom. And we’re doing that, but we’re not out of the woods yet.”
In West Ada, which has nearly 40,000 students, everyone has been required to wear masks in the classroom. From Nov. 2 to Nov. 11, the district reported 38 total active COVID-19 cases: 35 students and three staff members. During the week from Oct. 3 to 9, the district reported 90 positive cases among students and staff.
The district’s board recently voted to stop contact tracing, so it isn’t requiring anyone to quarantine after possible exposures to the virus.
The district plans to revisit its mask policy when one of three things happen: Families have had adequate time to get their kids ages 5-11 vaccinated if they choose to; crisis standards of care are removed from St. Luke’s and Saint Alphonsus hospitals within the Treasure Valley; or the rate of community transmission in Ada County moves to moderate.
The Nampa School District, where masks are optional, has been seeing a similar trend.
During the week of Sept. 13, the district, which has more than 13,000 students, according to last year’s enrollment numbers, saw 127 total positive cases among employees and students. During the week of Nov. 8, the district reported 25 cases, with 23 of those among students.
School districts also report cases in different ways. Some include only those students who were positive for the virus while at school, while others include all students in the district who reported a positive test. According to a June analysis from the Idaho Capital Sun, many youth cases have also not been reported by schools.
‘Too soon to know’ whether schools should drop mask mandates, doctor says
Pate said it’s a good sign that numbers are dropping, but it’s still too soon for districts to lift their mitigation protocols.
Idaho has experienced four surges during the pandemic, and the most recent surge overwhelmed hospitals and forced the state to activate crisis standards of care, or health care rationing to prioritize patients based on prognosis.
“We’ve done this four times, so we should probably be a little hesitant about proclaiming victory, especially when we have low vaccine rates,” Pate said.
“So I think this would be a really bad time for schools to relax their precautions.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still recommends universal masking in schools.
The Caldwell School District lifted its mask mandate earlier this week after vaccines were authorized for kids ages 5-11. Kids in this age group receive a lower dose of the vaccine, but still need two doses 21 days apart to receive full protection.
Even though cases are down in school districts, Pate said community transmission is still high. He also warned of the upcoming flu season. Easing up on COVID-19 precautions could promote influenza transmission, he said.
Pate recommended that schools leave their mitigation measures in place “until we can get through the winter” and that they look at a number of factors when considering lifting protocols, including vaccination rates, disease transmission levels and hospitalizations.
Dan Hollar, spokesperson for the Boise School District, urged the public to continue to follow mitigation measures throughout the holiday season so students could remain in school.
“We are seeing encouraging data come in, especially with regard to our schools, and that’s giving us a sign of some level of hope,” he said. “But we need the public’s help as we go into the holidays to continue to practice those mitigation protocols that we all know have helped.”
The district, he said, will continue to follow guidance from its health care partners, and from the CDC and Central District Health.
Mask mandates have stirred tension in school districts for months, with some parents arguing that they should have a right to decide what health protocols and rules their children follow, and others saying masks are a necessary tool to keeping children and families safe.
Kids typically experience more mild symptoms when they get COVID-19, but they can be hospitalized or spread the virus to their more vulnerable loved ones, public health officials have said.
In Idaho, 262 children have been hospitalized with COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, according to the Department of Health and Welfare. The state has reported one pediatric death due to the virus.
