Like it or not, here’s what Realtors project for the Boise housing market in 2020
The national trade group representing real estate agents has a prediction about Boise home sales and prices for 2020:
They’ll grow faster than anywhere else among the nation’s 100 biggest housing markets.
Realtor.com ranks Idaho’s capital city No. 1 in its latest annual list of the hottest markets, released Thursday. Last year, Boise ranked eighth.
“Our list represents the top 100 cities in the U.S. where we expect sales and prices to grow the fastest in 2020,” George Ratiu, a senior economist with Realtor.com, told the Idaho Statesman by phone. “The combination of sales and prices placed Boise city at the top of the list.”
The report did not project 2020 home sales volumes or prices. It noted what Boiseans already know: The city has seen a population boom in recent years, nearly doubling to 225,000 since 1990. Many newcomers have come from more expensive cities in California, Oregon and Washington.
“Boise is home to a mild four-season climate with a vibrant community that actively takes advantage of the area’s easy access to mountains, rivers, lakes and parks,” the report said.
Realtor.com said Boise also boasts a “strong school system, thriving job market and top-notch health care,” and said Idaho has relatively low sales and property taxes.
What changed in a year’s time to boost Boise to the top spot?
“It’s the combination of solid inflow and demand for housing,” Ratiu said. “There’s an outflow from high-cost cities across the U.S. into midsized cities with stable and solid economies and more affordable housing.”
Many of the newcomers are retirees who built their careers in large cities but now want to live in places with a high quality of life, affordability and a better tax environment, Ratiu said.
“At the other end you have millennials, the older of whom are going to be 39 next year, who are pushing on with life, having kids and looking for a better quality of life, better schools, who are trying to get into home ownership but finding places like San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles are not exactly affordable.”
Affordability is relative. For people moving to Boise from high-income areas such as California or Oregon, Boise’s housing prices may seem like bargains. But for those who grew up in Idaho and who work for much lower wages than elsewhere, home prices can seem out of reach.
Home prices in Boise rose at a higher rate than in any of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over the 12 months ending in September, the Federal Housing Financing Agency reported last month.
The median price of the 858 homes sold in the Boise area in November was a record $359,900, according to the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service. It was the fifth time the record has been shattered this year. The previous record was $355,000, set in August.
In 2018 the median price in Ada County rose 18%, to $314,000. And there have been far fewer homes, both new and existing, to supply demand. Nationally, they rose 5%.
And homes priced at less than $250,000 are nearly nonexistent.
“That does not surprise me,” Ratiu said. “Boise is not alone in that, when you have a significant influx of money from residents coming from more affluent areas from out of state. In the absence of significant new construction, you see a lot of pressure on the housing market, along with infrastructure and transportation. “
In August, Realtor.com reported that Boise ranked No. 2 on its list of cities with the most out-of-state views on its website in the second quarter of 2019. Boise placed right behind Charleston, South Carolina. Honolulu was third.
More than a quarter of the out-of-state online traffic for Boise home listings came from three cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City and Sacramento, according to the analysis.
In Realtor.com’s new 2020 Top Markets List, Boise beat out McAllen, Texas, and Tuscon, Arizona.
Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said Realtor.com is operated by The National Association of Realtors. It is run by Move Inc. under a license from the association.
This story was originally published December 12, 2019 at 4:00 AM.
